EASTERN CONFERENCE
(1) Cleveland (10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS) at (3) Orlando (11-7 SU, 9-9 ATS)
The Cavaliers, the No. 1 overall seed in the playoffs, continue their quest to keep their season alive when they travel to Amway Arena for Game 6 of the Eastern Conference finals against the Magic, who remain just one win away from their second-ever trip to the NBA Finals.
In Game 5 Thursday night, Cleveland gave away all of a 22-point first half lead, but LeBron James either scored or assisted on all of the Cavs’ fourth-quarter baskets as they earned a 112-102 victory laying 7½ points at home. James finished with a triple-double of 37 points, 14 rebounds and 12 assists, and four teammates scored in double figures, including Mo Williams (24 points), who hit 6 of 9 from three-point range. The victory marked the first time in this series –and the first time in eight overall meetings with the Magic this season – that the Cavs beat the spread.
Hedo Turkoglu led Orlando with 29 points in Game 5, and Dwight Howard had 24 points and 10 rebounds before fouling out for the third time in this series. The Magic shot a respectable 45.8 percent from the floor (33 of 72) but made just eight of their 25 three-point tries (32 percent), while allowing Cleveland to shoot 50 percent from the floor (38 of 76 overall, 9 of 18 from long distance).
The Magic are still a sterling 14-2 ATS in the last 16 clashes in this rivalry, and they’ve cashed in five straight at home against Cleveland. This year, Orlando is 7-1 ATS (5-3 SU) against the Cavaliers. Also, the underdog is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 head-to-head clashes.
Cleveland is 31-16 SU (25-22 ATS) on the road this year, including 4-2 SU (3-3 ATS) in the playoffs, with both losses coming in Games 3 and 4 in Florida. Orlando is 38-11 SU (28-21 ATS) at Amway Arena, including 6-2 SU (5-3 ATS) in the postseason.
The Cavaliers, who are 33-6 SU in their last 39 starts dating to the regular season, are on positive ATS runs of 12-5 overall, 10-2 after a spread-cover and 10-3 following a SU win. However, Mike Brown’s troops are still just 7-17 ATS in their last 24 outings against Southeast Division opponents, and they’ve failed to cover the number in four straight as a road pup.
The Magic have cashed in six of their last seven overall (5-2 SU), going 3-0 SU and ATS at home during this spurt. They are on further ATS upswings of 10-4 overall, 5-1 at Amway Arena, 9-2 against the Central Division, 4-1 as a playoff chalk and a lengthy 51-21-1 following a SU loss.
The total has gone high in four of five games in this series and five of the last six contests overall between these teams, and the over for Cleveland is on streaks of 7-1 in the conference finals and 5-1 with the Cavaliers catching less than five points. On the flip side, the under is on runs for the Cavs of 5-1 on the road and 7-2 after a SU win, and the under for Orlando is on stretches of 8-3 at home, 7-1 as a favorite, 5-0 when laying less than five points, 8-1 after a non-cover and 7-1 after a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Cincinnati (26-21) at Milwaukee (28-20)
The Brewers ended the Reds’ four-game winning streak Friday and now send David Bush (3-1, 3.92 ERA) to the hill to battle Cincinnati’s Aaron Harang (5-4, 3.36) as this three-game weekend set between N.L. Central rivals resumes at Miller Park.
Milwaukee won Friday night’s opener 3-2 and has now taken three of the last four over the Reds. The win was just the Brewers’ second in their last six games, and they were held to three runs or less for the seventh straight contest. They’ve also now gone 10 straight games without getting more than four runs in a contest and they’ve managed just seven runs in the first four games of the current homestand. On the bright side, Milwaukee is on hot streaks of 13-5 at home, 18-6 against the N.L. Central, 17-5 against teams with a winning record and 18-6 as a home favorite.
While the Reds’ four-game winning streak came to an end last night, they are still on streaks of 6-2 against N.L. Central foes, 6-2 in the second game of a series and 5-2 against teams with a winning record. Cincinnati also has won eight of its last 12 at Miller Park and it is 5-2 in Harang’s last seven outings in Milwaukee.
On Monday, Harang allowed three runs on 10 hits in five innings to beat the Astros 8-5. He was dominant in two starts against the Brewers last season allowing a total of two runs on nine hits in a combined 16 innings as the Reds won 4-3 and 4-1. However, the Reds are just 3-13 in Harang’s last 16 road starts and 1-8 in his last nine when visiting an opponent a winning record.
The Brewers weres riding a six-game winning streak with Bush on the hill until Sunday when he allowed four runs on five hits in 6 2/3 innings of a 6-3 loss in Minnesota. In two starts at Miller Park in 2009, the right-hander has allowed seven runs (six earned) on 13 hits in 13 1/3 innings. Milwaukee is on stretches of 36-16 with Bush on the mound at home, 13-3 when he starts as a favorite and 18-4 when he starts at home against teams with a winning record.
Bush faced the Reds three times last season with the Brewers going 1-2, and both losses were at home. With Bush pitching, Milwaukee has lost six of seven against the Reds dating back to 2006.
The under is 11-5-1 in Harang’s last 17 outings and 5-1-1 in his last seven on the road. The under is also is 4-1 in Bush’s last five outings overall, but the over is 13-4-1 in Bush’s last 18 as a home favorite and 11-4-1 in his last 16 when he faces N.L. Central rivals.
Cincinnati has stayed under the total in 13 of its last 19 road games and four of its last five as a road ‘dog, but otherwise the Reds are on “over” runs of 8-3 in the second game of a series, 5-0 on Saturday and 8-1 against N.L. Central teams. Milwaukee is on “under” runs of 5-1 overall, 11-4 at home, 10-2 as a home favorite and 5-1 against right-handed hurlers. In this rivalry, the over is 4-2 in the last six clashes overall and 9-0-1 the last 10 times Bush has faced the Reds.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MILWAUKEE
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (28-21) at Toronto (28-23)
The Blue Jays will try to make it two in a row over the Red Sox when they send southpaw Brian Tallet (2-3, 4.31 ERA) to the mound opposite Brad Penny (5-1, 5.96) inside the Rogers Centre in Toronto.
Toronto ended a nine-game losing skid with a 6-3 win over Boston on Friday, also ending a four-game losing skid to the Red Sox dating back to last season. Toronto has now won five straight and 14 of 18 in Canada and it is 44-21 at home dating back to last year. However, the Blue Jays remain in slumps of 1-8 against A.L. East foes and 2-6 against the Red Sox dating to last season.
Boston is just 2-3 on its current road trip and 3-7 in its last 10 on the road overall, but the Red Sox are still on positive streaks of 14-5 against winning teams, 4-1 against A.L. East teams and 10-3 against left-handed starters.
Despite a 5.81 ERA on the highway, Penny is 2-1 as a visitor, including a 6-5 win in Minnesota on Monday when he allowed three runs on six hits in 5 1/3 innings. He faced the Blue Jays 10 days ago and held them to two runs on nine hits in 6 2/3 innings of an 8-3 Boston win. In five career starts against Toronto, Penny’s teams have never lost and he’s held the Jays to two runs or less in four of the five outings.
Tallet has a 2.66 ERA at home but hasn’t gotten a decision in 20 1/3 innings of work. The Blue Jays are 0-3 in Tallet’s last three starts even though he’s pitched at least six innings each time and allowing two earned runs in each contest. He started in Boston 11 days ago and gave up two runs on four hits in six innings of a 2-1 Blue Jays’ loss. In two career starts against the Red Sox Tallet has allowed a combined two runs on eight hits in 12 innings of work.
The over is 6-2-1 in Penny’s last nine starts overall, but the under is 4-0 in Tallet’s last four efforts against A.L. East opponents.
For Boston, the over is 13-6 in its last 19 against southpaws and 11-3-1 in its last 15 Saturday contests, but the beyond that, the Sox sport “under” trends of 11-3-1 overall, 7-1-1 on the road and 6-2 against teams with a winning record. Toronto is on “under” streaks of 6-2 at home, 9-3 against A.L. East teams and 10-4 against right-handed starters. Finally, six of the last eight meetings between these squads have stayed low.
Sports Advisors 5-30-09
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