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Hockey Betting Detail for 5/26/09 7:06pm EST
DATE   TIME   # AWA HOM UNITS BET LINE ODDS 
05/26  7:35p .1 PIT CAR  18    H   PK  +110
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NHL Power Rankings for 5/26/09 7:04pm EST
TEAM SLOPR FASPR GFADJ GAADJ FINTO FINPR
 BOS  0.70  0.89  0.02 -0.06  4.64  0.73 
 DET  0.91  1.32 -0.14  0.11  5.00  0.56 
 PIT  0.41  1.01  0.14 -0.06  5.01  0.46 
 SJ  -0.02 -0.81  0.15 -0.13  4.53  0.46 
 CHI  0.25  0.01  0.05 -0.06  4.80  0.42 
 ANA  0.41  0.63  0.03 -0.02  4.80  0.41 
 NJ  -0.06 -0.51  0.18 -0.13  4.59  0.36 
 VAN  0.24  0.19  0.00 -0.07  4.57  0.32 
 CAR  0.08 -0.22  0.08 -0.08  4.70  0.32 
 BUF  0.26  0.63  0.03 -0.09  4.76  0.29 
 STL  0.13  0.21  0.10 -0.07  4.52  0.28 
 WAS  0.06  0.04  0.10 -0.08  4.94  0.25 
 PHI  0.09  0.20  0.09 -0.04  4.90  0.19 
 CBJ -0.13 -0.71  0.12 -0.04  4.66  0.18 
 FLO  0.05  0.21  0.10 -0.05  4.67  0.16 
 MIN  0.30  0.80 -0.03  0.04  4.48  0.11 
 EDM -0.18 -0.33  0.11 -0.06  4.79  0.03 
 OTT -0.04  0.01  0.08  0.02  4.75  0.01 
 CGY -0.05 -0.37  0.02  0.10  5.03 -0.05 
 DAL -0.10 -0.46 -0.04  0.06  4.72 -0.11 
 MON -0.20 -0.50 -0.01 -0.01  4.92 -0.13 
 NSH -0.07  0.06 -0.06 -0.02  4.39 -0.14 
 NYR -0.29 -0.45  0.10  0.00  4.47 -0.15 
 ATL -0.30  0.07  0.04  0.00  5.06 -0.35 
 PHO -0.54 -0.63  0.06 -0.08  4.71 -0.38 
 TOR -0.35 -0.18 -0.01 -0.01  5.05 -0.39 
 LA  -0.22  0.02 -0.12  0.02  4.38 -0.42 
 NYI -0.57 -1.24 -0.14 -0.02  4.55 -0.52 
 TB  -0.49 -0.90 -0.29  0.15  4.72 -0.83 
 COL -0.63 -0.73 -0.27  0.19  4.52 -1.07
To make NHL predictions, start with the FINPR (Final Power Ranking) goal difference, add 0.25 goals for home ice, adjust for today's scheduling (b2b = -0.20, b2b34 = -0.30, rest = +0.10, etc.), motivation (+/- up to 0.25) and goalies (dominant starter GA = -0.05, backup GA = +0.10, bad backup GA = +0.20, etc.) and finally convert the PR to a moneyline using 50c = 0.5 PR up to 1.00 PR, and 50c = 0.25 PR after that. If positive, add to +100, and change the sign to reflect a favorite. Add to -100 if negative, reverse the sign and you have the underdog.

For example: Team A (Final Power Ranking of 0.50) at home (+0.25) is playing Team B (-0.25 Final Power Ranking). Team A is heavily rested (+0.10). Team B is in a b2b situation (-0.20) and playing their backup goalie (-0.10). You feel however, Team B is motivated (+0.15). The final PR is 1.25. Convert this to a ML using 50c per 0.50 for the first 1.00 equals 100c and another 50c for the remaining 0.25 PR over that (50c per 0.25). Add this to a base moneyline of +100 gives us +250. Since Team A is the favorite, simply change to a minus for a final moneyline of -250

For totals, get a rough idea of the league median FINTO by going through the data in the table and choosing the middle value. Call this FINTOLG. This will change during different stages of the season, especially the playoffs. Then for both teams in the game, calculate each's FINTO relative difference from FINTOLG. (I.E. FINTO - FINTOLG) Call these FINTOA and FINTOB. Now get your total by adding FINTOLG + FINTOA + FINTOB + 0.4. Note: The 0.4 is to account for empty-net, extra-attacker, and overtime goals. There you go! You have a total. Keep in mind that over-unders are inherently less accurate than sides, so make sure you have a larger edge and hopefully additional fundamental factors on your side as well before placing the bet. Good Luck!