Cleveland

The oddsmaker has to make Tampa Bay a favorite with a pitching matchup of Matt Garza against Carl Pavano.

On paper it does look like a mismatch. But this is another perfect example of why games aren't won on paper.

The Indians are way underpriced here. Pavano actually hasn't been bad. He has a fat 6.10 ERA because his first couple of starts weren't good.

But in his last eight starts, he's pitched 47 2/3 innings and given up just three homers with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 39-to-eight. Since his opening game, Pavano is 4-3 with a 4.53 ERA. That includes pitching on the road against the Yankees, Red Sox and Tigers. Cleveland has won four of Pavano's last five starts.

By contrast, Garza has struggled when facing the Indians. He's 0-3 against them with a 6.12 ERA in five career starts.

There's a strong intangible at play here, too, in that Tampa Bay suffered its greatest collapse in franchise history last night blowing a 10-0 lead in an 11-10 loss to the Indians. Cleveland rallied for seven runs in the ninth.

It could take a day or two for the mentally fragile Rays to get past that searing loss. The Rays also could be psyched out playing in Cleveland where they have lost 14 straight times.

Keep in mind, too, the Rays are without one of their best players with second baseman Akinori Iwamura out for the season.

This is a one-unit play for me.