[LUCKYME1]

5* Milwaukee
5* SF/SD Under
3* Pittsburgh

[yisman]

malinsky Pitt write-up

Yes, we can start Tuesday right where Monday left off. Once again the Nationals are forced into the favorite’s role, this time to a rather high level, and they simply do not bring enough to the table to merit the price tag. So a resurgent Pittsburgh team that has won three straight games, scoring a confidence-boosting 30 runs in the process, is an easy fit in this range.

How does an 11-26 team with the worst defense and worst bullpen in the Major League’s get to this line plateau? Largely because a lot of weight is being given to starter Shairon Martis, who has worked to a 5-0/4.10 so far. But while Martis is a good prospect, he has been rather fortunate so far to get 6.4 runs per game scored behind him, a pace that will not keep up, and there are real concerns going forward concerning his style with this defense behind him. The Nationals are not only at the bottom of our best defensive tables, but are on the verge of turning in one of the worst defensive seasons we have ever charted. That is a problem for a guy that pitches to contact (only 21 strikeouts in 41.2 innings), and has to rely on the arms, legs and gloves behind him to record a lot of outs. There is a further problem for Manny Acta, who has to juggle between wanting to keep the work load light for the 22-year old Martis, and going to a bullpen that is working to a mind-numbing 6.68 tune. That count is the worst in the Major Leagues, and there is not a single reliable arm right now.

The Pirates have been much better than Washington defensively, rating #7 on our best tables, and they should get Nyjer Morgan back in the lineup tonight to help in that regard. And that makes life easier for Jeffrey Kartsens, who has been a victim of both weak offensive support and a high strand rate in recording a misleading 1-2/5.06 so far. Note that his 1.41 WHIP is nearly identical to the 1.37 of Martis, which creates a better perspective. He has not walked a batter over 12 innings of his last two starts, and is an under-valued commodity at this offering.