[kaspbart]

thanks juice. i said that i will not gona play lakers ... but today i really like this play ... well, lets hae hope they win and cover .... GL

[Shempy]

Right on Juice! Big day!!

[Svalander]

Let's hope this guys bigplays are just as good as the previous one, because he was nailing them all
Tailing and let's see

[ebbearsfb1]

pavano didnt strike out 17... wtf

[jellobiafra]

That's a really odd typo.

I hope this guy is successful, and if his record last year is accurate then I would expect him to be. But I've gotta say his writeups have a little to be desired. He blames yesterday's results on only having 6 hours to cap 4 games, but his writeup yesterday looked like he spent about 5 minutes researching the picks. For example:

Garzas bullpen has a 9.69 ERA, in only 13 innings pitched, giving up 14 runs and 5 home Runs, with 7 Strike Outs and 5 Walks.
Pavano's bullpen counters with a 7.66 ERA, giving up only 19 runs in 22 innings, with 5 home runs, 22 Strike Outs
and 9 walks.



I don't know about the rest of you, but that's not really an endorsement for the Indians bullpen. ONLY 19 runs in 22 innings?


Today he makes a big deal about Kershaw (who I think is great) and then later mentions that Clay's road ERA is 9.47. Yikes.

From his commentary it looks like he spends about 5 minutes checking the trends and past performances. Then he uses sometimes conflicting info (like CLE bullpen or Kershaw's road ERA) to support his picks.

Again, I hope he knows what he's doing and last year's record would indicate he does. So far based on two days of writeups though - no offense - he sounds like an amateur clown.

[jellobiafra]

By the way, I can tell him why the Reds are +140 today. Bronson Arroyo sucks. In his last 23.2 innings he's given up 24 ER. In his last 3 he has a 7.88 ERA. Jake Peavy is a beast at home and in his last 3 starts overall he has a 2.14 ERA. The Padres are also 9-1 in his last 10 starts vs the Reds.

Arroyo's numbers look great on the road b/c he had 8 innings of shutout ball against the Pirates a couple weeks ago. Last time out in Arizona he gave up 10 hits in 7 innings and 5 ER to not exactly the Murderer's Row D'Backs. Threw 123 pitches that game too. That's a lot of pitches to be bouncing back from.

[mikejung75]

woow jello..you sound very knowledgeble..Hats off to you

let's see how's right in today's game...I already bet on everything so ..No offense to you but i hope you are wrong Jello

[jellobiafra]

woow jello..you sound very knowledgeble..Hats off to you

let's see how's right in today's game...I already bet on everything so ..No offense to you but i hope you are wrong Jello

I'm not that knowledgeable. I just spent 5 minutes on Covers.com. That's my point. It looks like that's all this guy is doing and even then he's finding reasons to doubt his picks AND including those in his supporting writeup.


I hope he is right today. I really do. I want a baseball capper to tail exclusively because I'm struggling on my own. I just am not seeing promise here yet.

I'm also a little concerned with the data he's using in these writeups. It's on the verge of misleading. Yes Bronson Arroyo is undefeated against the Padres. He went 2-0.... last year. He gave up 5 ER in 13 innings. Is that really a strong enough stat to hang your hat on, though? Especially facing SD's ace today? And if you look a little deeper you will see that the year before last, Arroyo's team was 1-2 against the Pad's in his starts. In fact, in the last 10, his team is 5-5 against the Padres. Not exactly as strong as that undefeated makes him sound vs. the Padres.

[GGPLAYER]

That's a really odd typo.

I hope this guy is successful, and if his record last year is accurate then I would expect him to be. But I've gotta say his writeups have a little to be desired. He blames yesterday's results on only having 6 hours to cap 4 games, but his writeup yesterday looked like he spent about 5 minutes researching the picks. For example:

Garzas bullpen has a 9.69 ERA, in only 13 innings pitched, giving up 14 runs and 5 home Runs, with 7 Strike Outs and 5 Walks.
Pavano's bullpen counters with a 7.66 ERA, giving up only 19 runs in 22 innings, with 5 home runs, 22 Strike Outs
and 9 walks.



I don't know about the rest of you, but that's not really an endorsement for the Indians bullpen. ONLY 19 runs in 22 innings?


Today he makes a big deal about Kershaw (who I think is great) and then later mentions that Clay's road ERA is 9.47. Yikes.

From his commentary it looks like he spends about 5 minutes checking the trends and past performances. Then he uses sometimes conflicting info (like CLE bullpen or Kershaw's road ERA) to support his picks.

Again, I hope he knows what he's doing and last year's record would indicate he does. So far based on two days of writeups though - no offense - he sounds like an amateur clown.

To boot he said yesterday's Bos/Sea game was going over 10?? The line was 8.5 or 9. I questioned it yesterday and thought something was off but still bet it anyway Total runs.....8. I'm not here to bash, just pointing things out for guys to watch and think about.

[theplagy]

I donno about their baseball...

Until they prove something, I'm gonna stay away.

Gotta love their NBA tho

[GGPLAYER]

man i dunno about that orlando magic pick

I agree. I will take the LA and if they win I might just take a pass on the Orl/Bos game. But going against the home team in a game 7 is tough.

[jellobiafra]

To boot he said yesterday's Bos/Sea game was going over 10?? The line was 8.5 or 9. I questioned it yesterday and thought something was off but still bet it anyway Total runs.....8. I'm not here to bash, just pointing things out for guys to watch and think about.

Yep. I stayed off him yesterday because it was the 1st day and his record speaks for itself (if accurate). But to be honest there were a bunch of red flags on that writeup that I could have broken down. I chose to just mention the one about the bullpen. I'm not a big believer in breaking down bullpen performance per starting pitcher in the 1st place. Run support for a certain starter? Yes. That makes sense - for one thing aces usually face other team's aces and bottom of the rotation guys vise versa. Therefore it's not uncommong to see 5th starters get a lot more run support than #1's (see Santana, Johan). Also, I believe in the mentality of team's not battling quite as hard at the plate with their ace on the mound because that ace is a security blanket.

But bullpen support broken down by pitcher? I can't think of any logical reason for finding a trend in this stat. The bullpen is it's own entity. But if you are going to use it to support your choice of a team and starter, don't tell me they ONLY give up 19 runs in 22 innings when your guy starts! As if that's a good thing. And don't tell me that your starter on your *BP* team has a road ERA of 9.47.

Plus he uses Koronka's ERA to denigrate him but doesn't let you know that it's acquired through only 4 innings of work this season.

[jellobiafra]

By the way, I like the Dodgers pick. Don't want to make it sound like I don't. I just would have found different points to emphasize if I were doing the write-up for it. Like the fact that Koronka is a career minor leaguer who didn't even pitch in the majors last season and had only 2 MLB appearances in '07. So he is garbage. I agree. And despite Kershaw's road ERA, he is a budding ace. I love this kid. The Dodgers hit lefties 6 points higher than righties (although I think that is still skewerd by Manny), but better yet the Marlins struggle against lefties - hitting .229 with only a .295 OPB. The Marlins have a lot of swing and miss guys in their lineup and with Kershaw's mid-90's heat and knee buckling curve I can see him K'ing about 15 today. (not quite the 17 of Pavano, but still pretty good )

This is actually a great pick, imo. The more I look at it the more I like it.

[jellobiafra]

Good start. LAD up 6-0 in the 3rd!

Koronka was a train wreck. 2 throwing errors cost them 3 runs alone.

[jellobiafra]

Dodgers now up 8-0 in the 8th. Kershaw working on a no-no!

[jellobiafra]

How the **** did he know that Kershaw is going to look like a Cy Young pitcher today? The Dodgers are hitting like madmen lol, I love lopsided games like this .... when I am betting on the right side

I don't think he did. He just said in comparison to Koronka he's Cy Young. He said with Kershaws 9.47 road ERA that LAD should win this one in a "shootout".

I'll take it either way. Hell of a pick. Tailed on the Lakers too and they are starting strong.

Still don't like the Reds play, but I'm not fading it or anything.

BOL.

[jellobiafra]

Woot over just hit !!! :d

Nice bounce back day for Bulldog. I truly hope he is as good as advertised because I like these guys.

I'll be pulling for the Reds even though I didn't bet them. Be nice to see an MLB sweep with a BP mixed in for these guys, especially with all the flak they've been getting for baseball picks lately. I'll gladly eat my words if CIN wins.

[mp5070]

Congrats, juice

I need Cubs -1.5 to WIN my PARLAY of:

Jays -1.5 WON
Cubs -1.5

[theplagy]

11 runs in the last 2 innings

[jellobiafra]

Rated Picks does it again with their *BP*'s. I only bet these two today...my only two plays of the day. I bought 2.5 points on the Lakers which I obviously didn't need.

Anyway, a nice 2-0 to maybe get me back on track. I've had a pretty bad week. Thanks Rated Picks!



Also, Arroyo has pitched his little hippy heart out today after looking shaky in the 1st. He's down 2-1 through 7 and has given the Reds a real shot at stealing one in San Diego. I didn't bet it but I'm pulling for you guys.

[GGPLAYER]

Big day for LA teams. Great job RP's! Big thank you to PTJ and everyone else who posts these plays

[Bakerdew]

When they say BP what type of bet are they talking about? I know it depends on bankroll, but do they talk in percentages, or units or anything like that?

[mikejung75]

it just means double your bet ..if u bet 1% of your bankroll..then on BP bet 2%

the think that i love about RP is that they always come back after a bad streak..

these guys really know what they are talking about .

[joeyluv10941]

Make up your mind?yesterday you hated em golden days ahead

[Svalander]

Awesome day, parlay on Lakers and LA Dodgers !

[duocargo]

huge day !!! #

ratedpicks