Kostroski

PLAY ON Over the Total, Washington (Martis) vs. Philadelphia (Blanton), Monday at 7:05 PM EST

It might be hard to believe but the Nationals have actually been the better hitting team in this match-up despite producing only four wins. Washington is hitting .265 on the season, while scoring close to 4.5 runs per game. The Nationals have lost five one-run games already this season so they are likely a better team than the record indicates and for the most part the offense has been productive. Philadelphia’s offense has been scoring at a great rate, with the second most runs scored in the National League. Philadelphia has allowed only two fewer runs than they have scored however so the Phillies have been involved in many high scoring games.

The ‘over’ is 11-5-1 in Philadelphia games this season and Washington has also slightly leaned to the ‘over’ on the season. Washington’s pitching has been a disaster away from home with a team ERA of 7.03 in road games. Shairon Martis has deceptively respectable numbers with a 4.11 ERA with a 2-0 record but his WHIP is a dangerous 1.50 as he has walked seven and allowed 16 hits in just 15 innings. His lone road start did not go well, allowing three runs in three innings and there is not much support in the bullpen as Washington has blown four saves this season and Washington is 0-6 in games decided by relievers.

The Phillies have scored five or more runs in ten of the last 13 games and although the Phillies have a poor home record at this point in the season, Citizens Bank Park has the third highest ballpark OPS in the NL. Joe Blanton is getting close to pitching himself out of the rotation as he has allowed 25 hits in just 14 innings this season, and his ERA is 7.31. The Nationals hit Blanton hard earlier this season and the Philadelphia bullpen has not been quite as sharp as last season. Look for a high scoring game between two teams that have been hitting well, but two teams that have not received great pitching in 2009.

Lawrence

Play On: LA Dodgers w/Wolf vs. Zito
Note: The Dodgers open a 3-game series with their hated rivals in San Francisco where they have come away victors in 13 of the last 20 meetings in this park. With randy Wolf is solid current form and Barry Zito just 2-13 in his last 15 home team starts during April, look for Wolf to ring the register for the 13th time in his last 16 team starts here tonight.

We recommend a 1-unit play on the Dodgers with Wolf vs. Zito.

Malinsky

4* #978 WHITE SOX Run Line over SEATTLE

Yes, the Mariners are 12-7 and leading the A.L. West. But we have made our feelings about them known pretty well already, and the chance to get an underdog return here on a game that should break wide open is impossible to pass up.

Despite that winning record, Seattle has not hit. The Mariners are 12th in the A.L. in batting average; tied for 12th in runs; tied for dead last in doubles; tied for 13th in home runs; and 12th in walks. But do not pencil that as a slump – they are simply that bad. And it is not as though they have been mowed down by Cy Young contenders – unless James Shields or Joe Saunders come around, they will have gone 19 games without facing an All Star starter. That changes tonight against John Danks, who has been every bit as good as his 2-0/0.95 would indicate, with only nine hits allowed in 19 innings, and more than twice as many strikeouts as hits allowed. Pencil a lot of goose eggs next to the Seattle name on the scoreboard.

And pencil in a lot of runs for Chicago. At the age of 30 it would have been a great human interest story if Chris Jakubauskas could finally hang on in a Major League rotation, but the stuff simply is not there. In two home starts against slumping Angel and Ray offenses the Mariners were whipped by a combined 10 runs, and the 0-2/8.64 contribution by Jakubauskas in those games may be even worse than it appears. Not only was he cuffed for 15 hits in those early exits, but he had more fly ball outs than strikeouts and ground outs combined. You know how we feel about that latter ratio, but he was protected on both nights by April at Safeco Field. Now he has to take to a tough foreign mound in a park where fly balls are often caught by fans, particularly when they are hit by that tough middle of the White Sox batting order. It makes for a difficult challenge for a guy that can not miss Major League bats (only six strikeout of the 60 hitters he has faced), and it also means an early appearance from a Seattle middle relief corps that is not well-set for tonight, with Mark Lowe a question mark off of back-to-back outings; Sean White an almost certain scratch off of 37 Sunday pitches; and Roy Corcoran also a question mark after 27 tosses yesterday.

Rickenbach

Monday MLB: OVER the total in New York Mets vs Florida @ 7:10 PM ET - Maine vs Sanchez – Please note that the analysis with Scott’s actual star rated picks is more in-depth than the free pick write-ups. Thank you and don’t miss today’s winners! Many remember some of the great runs that Maine has had in the past and, as a result, his name can make people think "under" but he is clearly not pitching well so far this season. Also, he's facing a Marlins team that will be anxious to bounce back after getting swept at home by the Phillies. The Marlins send Sanchez to the mound tonight and he faces a Mets offense that is much better than you would think based solely on the runs they've scored. They're hitting for a high average and that's eventually going to translate to more runs. Also, the Mets are hungry to bounce back after yesterday's disappointing home loss.Additionally, the early reviews are showing that Citi Field is favorable to the hitters and we look for this game to be much higher scoring than most are anticipating. Sanchez has good numbers this season and Maine has strong long-term numbers. That is resulting in leans to the under here but this one should feature plenty of offense and we get good line value on the total here. Consider a small play on OVER the total in the New York Mets game as a regular selection.

Ness

The Cubs ended a four-game slide on Sunday, banging out 14 hits in a 10-3 win over the Cards. The win gets the Cubs back over .500, at 9-8. Meanwhile, the D'backs avoided getting swept at home by the Giants on Sunday, rallying with three runs in the ninth inning and then winning on a bases-loaded single in the 12th (5-4). Scoring has been a problem all year for the D'backs, as they are batting an NL-worst .223 and their 63 runs scored (3.5 per) is only ahead of the Giants, who have scored 60 runs. No one has felt the 'pain' of the team not scoring more than Arizona's starter tonight, Dan Haren. Haren is coming off an excellent first season with the D'backs, going 16-8 with a 3.33 ERA last year in 33 starts (team was 20-13, including 12-5 at home). He's just 1-3 in four starts in 2009, despite allowing just 18 hits and four ERs over 26 innings, with a ratio of 26 strikeouts to just four walks. Haren's job may be a little easier than he first though tonight, as Aramis Ramirez (.358 3 HRs 14 RBI) is out with a calf injury and Derrek Lee left yesterday's game with neck spasms. He's doubtful for this game, although Cubs manager Lou Piniella said he will likely not go on the DL. However, Haren will need some offensive help. That's hardly a guarantee, as Chicago's Ted Lilly has really stepped up his game for the Cubs these last two seasons. Lilly was 15-8 with a 3.83 ERA in 2007 (team was 19-15 in his starts) and then 17-9 with a 4.09 ERA last year, while the Cubs went an impressive 22-12 in those starts. His first start of '09 was not a good one (5 IP / 8 hits / 5 ERs) at Houston, although he did earn a win in Chicago's 11-6 victory. He's been much better in his last two outings, allowing just six hits and one ER over 13.2 innings (0.66 ERA), despite only winning one of the two. He's 2-1 with a 2.41 ERA to open '09. The D'backs were 12-6 vs lefties at home last year (5.1 RPG) but have opened this year just 1-5 vs left-handers at home, averaging just 2.7 RPG. While the D'backs have hardly gotten off to a good start this year (7-11 overall, including 6-9 at home), Sunday's comeback win could spark a turnaround. After all, the D'backs did go 98-64 (.605) the last two season here in Chase Field. Haren's been very good so far and is overdue to get some support. Take the D'backs.

Burns

Both teams saw winning streaks snapped yesterday and both will be anxious to "get back on track" in this evening's series opener. While the Cardinals bring the better record to the table, I expect the Braves to have the advantage.

St Louis' Pineiro (3-0) has a better record than Atlanta's Jurrjens, who comes in at 2-1. However, a closer look reveals that Jurrjens has actually pitched better. While Pineiro has a mediocre 4.12 ERA, Jurrjens has an exceptional 1.42 mark. His record would be better if he'd gotten any kind of run support. Indeed, Jurrjens is 0-1 over his last two starts, despite allowing only 10 hits and one run through 14 1/3 innings.

Jurrjens should finally get some more help this evening. Pineiro gave up 12 baserunners and five runs (9.00 ERA, 2.40 WHIP!) in his lone road start and he's got an awful 8.10 ERA and 1.90 WHIP as a starter vs. the Braves. In his lone start here at Atlanta, he allowed 10 hits (2 HRs) and six runs. He was the losing pitching in a 9-4 Braves' victory. While the Cards did win Pineiro's lone road start this season, they're still just 1-3 the last four times that he pitched away from St. Louis.

The Braves have won three of Jurrjens' four starts this season and they're 15-5 the last 20 times that he started here at Turner Field. Consider Atlanta