[InTheHole]

LARRY NESS

15* Situational Mismatch

Boston opened the 2009 season losing SIX of its first eight games. However, the ageless Tim Wakefield took a no-hitter into the eighth inning of the team's final contest of a six-game road trip back on April 15 in Oakland. He finished with a four-hitter, as the Red Sox salvaged an 8-2 win, completing the trip 2-4. The Red Sox returned home the next day and on April 17, opened a nine-game homestand. A 4-1 win last night on ESPN over the Yankees capped a 9-0 homestand for Boston, which swept Baltimore, Minnesota and then New York. The Red Sox have now won 10 straight games, the club's longest winning streak since a 12-game run in June 2006. The Red Sox open a nine-game road trip tonight in Cleveland. Boston is hitting .322 during the last 10 games, while scoring 80 runs (eight per). However, all but the first of its 10 wins have come in Fenway. The Indians have opened the 2009 season 7-12 and lost five of six meetings with the Red Sox last year. The year before, Cleveland famously led the Red Sox three games to one in the ALCS (just one win away from a World Series appearance) but dropped the final three games of that series. Getting the start tonight for Cleveland is Cliff Lee. Lee entered the 2008 season with a 4.64 career ERA but went 22-3 with a 2.54 ERA, capturing won the AL's Cy Young award. The Indians were 24-7 in his 31 starts in '08, going plus-$1,452 vs the moneyline, which made Lee MLB's biggest "moneymaker" among starters. However, in his lone start vs the Red Sox, he allowed five runs in seven innings of a 5-4 loss. Lee opened the 2009 season looking nothing like a Cy Young winner. He allowed 17 hits and 11 ERs over 10 innings in starts against the Rangers and Blue Jays. Lee has rebounded though, by allowing just three ERs over 14 innings in his last two appearances. He beat CC Sabathia and the Yankees 10-2 in the first game ever played in the new Yankee Stadium on April 16, then lost 2-0 at home to Kansas City last Wednesday, despite eight strong innings. "The results are better," Lee said. "I think I've done a good job locating my pitches and mixing speeds. I think I got a little fastball happy in my first two starts, but I've made some adjustments. I've had good results, but that's what I expect of myself and what is expected of me." Tim Wakefield began Boston's current 10-game winning streak back on April 15 with that near no-hitter and then picked up a rain-shortened complete game win as the Red Sox beat the Twins this past Wednesday 10-1 (7 inn.), in the first game of a day/night doubleheader. Wakefield is 2-1 with a 2.45 ERA through three starts this year, which is lower than it was at any point last season. Truth be told, Wakefield is pitching "way over his head." One must admire the 42-year-old knuckleballer but the numbers don't lie. His first season with Boston was 1995, when Wakefield went 16-8 with a 2.95 ERA. The only other time since then (Wakefield is in his 15th year with Boston) that Wakefield's ERA has been below three, was in 2002. He posted a 2.81 ERA that season, going 11-5 in 45 appearances, although just 15 were starts. Wakefield's ERA has been over 4.00 in 11 of his 14 previous seasons with the Red Sox, including the last SIX! While the Red Sox have won 10 straight, this is a tough spot for them. They just completed a three-game sweep of the hated-Yankees, winning Friday and Saturday in dramatic fashion. Here, they open a nine-game road trip vs last year's Cy Young winner, who has been very sharp in his last two outings. Situational Mismatch 15* Cle Indians.


Oddsmaker's Error

The Reds won just 74 games last year (72 in 2007), so the team's 10-8 start is encouraging. Cincy beat Atlanta 8-2 on Sunday to salvage the finale of a three-game series and tonight opens a three-game set with the Astros. The Reds won THREE of four games in Houston (April 17-20) and the Astros come in just 7-12 on the season, which is the good news for Cincy fans. The bad news is two-fold. The Astros have won nine straight and 15 of their last 16 games at Cincinnati, with Cincy's starters posting an 8.37 ERA during the Reds' nine-game slide vs Houston. Cincy better get a good effort from their starter tonight (Johnny Cueto), as the Astros will send Roy Oswalt to the mound. Oswalt has been among MLB's finest pitchers since going 14-3 (2.73 ERA) in his first year with the team (2001). Oswalt will take a career 129-66 (3.15) mark into this game, which is a winning percentage of .662. It should also be noted that the Astros are an impressive 158-95 in all his starts (.625), although the breakdown is much more favorable at home (88-38 or .698) than it is on the road (70-57 or .551). However, when it comes to the Reds, it matters little to Oswalt if it's a home or away game. He's 23-1 with a 2.39 ERA in 27 starts and two relief appearances against the Reds in his career, going 8-0 with a 2.15 ERA in his last nine starts against Cincinnati. That lone no decision came just recently (on April 17), when Oswalt and Cueto squared off in Houston's Minute Maid Park. Cueto struggled with his control in that game, allowing just two hits but six walks in 4.2 innings. Owalt was his usual self vs the Reds, going six innings without allowing a run. However, with the Astros leading 1-0 in the 9th, closer Jose Valverde allowed a two-run HR to Ramon Hernandez, as the Reds won 2-1. Oswalt is not off to a great start this year for Houston (0-2 with a 4.68 ERA in four starts / team is 1-3) but remember he was 2-3 with a 6.00 ERA in his first five starts last year, before finishing 17-10 with a 3.54 ERA. Cueto made a HUGE 'splash' last year (his rookie season) in his first two starts. He beat the D'backs in Cincy 3-2, going seven innings while allowing one hit and one ER and striking out 10 with no walks. In his next start at Milwaukee, he got a no-decision in a 3-2 loss, allowing five hits and two ERs in 6.1 innings (eight Ks and no walks). After two ML starts, Cueto was 1-0 with a 2.03, striking out 18 batters (with ZERO walks) in 13.1 innings. However, he finished the season 9-14 with 4.81 ERA in 31 starts (Reds were 12-19). He's 1-1 with a 2.55 ERA in three starts to open 2009 (team is 2-1) but remember he was hardly in top form vs the Astros back on April 17. I'll also note that he's 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA vs Houston, having already faced the Astros five times in his short career (team was 0-4 in his starts vs Houston LY, as Cueto had a 7.84 ERA). Oswalt made just one start at Cincinnati last year and was minus-$1.40. Here, he's actually a small 'dog. Oddsmaker's Error 15* Hou Astros.