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  1. #1

    Default Vega Star Sports (very early line)

    We have finished our analysis of tomorrow’s games and will have complete write-ups (of all six) via our site tomorrow morning. However, I wanted to post one of the selections here first before I post the write-ups to the site in the morning - I feel that by tomorrow afternoon this line will have moved in the other direction (and its a great line).


    Have a great night! See ya in the am..

    Florida Marlins vs New York Mets

    We will be taking the Marlins ML +135

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  4. #4

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    marlins definitely win.

    SBR Founder Join Date: 11/13/2005


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    Glad to have you on our side shantystar.

    You guys ready to go 6-0 this evening? First game gets underway in a little more than an hour.

  7. #7
    GGPLAYER's Avatar SBR PRO
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    As long as Ray Allen does not run onto the field and hit a grand slam for the Mets we should be alright Stupid OT

  8. #8

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    Sorry Boy’s I got roughed up this evening going 3-2 (thus far). That would include a deplorable 1-2 record with our baseball selections and a respectable 2-0 in basketball – with one game pending. However, if we can post a win with our last selection of the day it would make our record 4-2. I will certainly do better next time.

    If anyone is wondering our last selection for the evening is riding on the over at 211 per the Lakers game.

    I am not certain if that line is still valid as we booked it early in the morning when we posted the release to our site – but I am expecting a total around 215-221.

    GGPLAYER,

    I think you jinxed the Marlins game as the Mets indeed hit a Grand Slam in the Bottom of the first inning, lol. I am just kidding of course. Maine pitched a fantastic game which I did not anticipate.

    Have a great evening!


    11-4-2 L4 should be 12w in three hours

  9. #9
    GGPLAYER's Avatar SBR PRO
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    That was bittersweet for me as I am a Mets fan. I had the game on and walked outside for the 1st inning. Came in and saw the 6-1 score and thought to myself "it's all my fault!!" Santos must be Ray Allen's cousin or something

    LA over was a tough call. There was a lot of debate regarding it over on the NBA forum page. Then Doc Sports said take the under and I was like what do I do? Thought Utah would have some pride and score in the 100's pushing LA to score like 115 or so. One of these games has to over eventually!

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    vega try to include records in units in MLB as you know 7-4-1 could be misleading

    and good luck with your picks

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    johnster,

    I completely understand that fact. We do not use a unit system since I will never select / release a game that is above -130. I do not see any risk/reward basis for making that decision (in most cases). If you search through our posting thus far you will notice that a ML -122 on the Boston Red Sox's was the highest game selected.

    I hope this anwsers you question.

    Have a great day!

  12. #12
    GGPLAYER's Avatar SBR PRO
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    You don't do units are anything like that but I notice that you do sometimes write in your pick to "smash" it. Does this mean you like that pick a little more than some of your others? I like that you keep you total picks low per day which makes me think you like tham all at equal value but I wanted to ask to know for sure. Thanks

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    GGPLAYER,

    You are correct in your logic when assuming that we value each selection equally. After performing qualitative and some quantitative analysis on a potential game we either find value in the line that has been posted or not. From my perspective I can not justify assigning weights to potential events on the basis that game A has a 5% higher probability of going over the total by 3 points than game B. In my view if a game has been selected than it has a valid chance of winning – no more or less than another choice we have made. In addition, yes we like to keep the selection to a minimum. It would be an entirely impossibly feat to cap every game that has been offered on a daily basis. We have a method for throwing out over 65% of the games at the onset based on the lines provided.

    That is funny you asked me about that phrase “smash it” – I received two emails this morning in reference to the same thing. Although, from my pervious statement the answer would be no (however looking back through our post thus far I believe we are undefeated on those post) simply a coincidence.

    Have a good day!


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    vega as i can see you are not capable of keeping proper records on your site

    but that is nothing to be ashamed off for majority of touts it's mission impossible

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    Jonhster,

    There are a million guys out there like yourself – either you have sour grapes in your mouth, an agenda or simply lack the aptitude to work a calculator. Why I am even dignifying your remark with a response will bother me tonight – however it is to late now. Alas here is the same record you will find well documented within our sites archives and even throughout SBR. When you make accusations against another’s integrity make sure you have the correct information before pursuing.



    Michigan State Spartans vs. UConn Huskies +4.5 82-73 W
    Villanova Wildcats vs. North Carolina Tar Heels -7 69-83 W

    NCAA 2-0



    4/20/09 Chicago Bulls vs Boston Celtics o197 115 –118 W
    4/21/09Utah Jazz vs Los Angeles Lakers o211 and +11.5 109-119 W and W
    4/22/09New Orleans Hornets vs. Denver Nuggets -6 93-108 W
    4/23/09 Boston Celtics vs. Chicago Bulls o201 107-86 L
    4/24/09Orlando Magic vs. Philadelphia 76ers +3.5 94-96 W
    4/24/09Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Detroit Pistons -5 79-68 W
    4/25/09Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat -4 78- 107 W
    4/26/09Boston Celtics vs. Chicago Bulls +3 and u 200.5 118-121 P and L
    4/26/09Orlando Magic vs. Philadelphia 76ers -4 84-81 L
    4/27/09Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat u185.5 81-71 W
    4/27/09Denver Nuggets vs. New Orleans Hornets +2.5 121-63 W
    4/27/09 Utah Jazz vs. Los Angeles Lakers o211 96-107 L

    NBA: 9-4-1




    4/21/09Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles Sox ML -120 3-10 L
    4/22/09Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Soxs o9.5 1-10 W
    4/23/09 New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals u9.5 8-12 L
    4/24/09 Philadelphia Phillies vs. Florida Marlins o9 7-3 W
    4/24/09New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Sox ML -122 4-5 W
    4/24/09 Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals u8.5 1-6 W
    4/25/09 Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets o10 2-8 P
    4/26/09Philadelphia Phillies vs. Florida Marlins Phil ML -110 13-2 W
    4/26/09 Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels u9 0-8 W
    4/27/09Florida Marlins vs. New York Mets Fish +135 1-7 L
    4/27/09Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds Reds ML -113 4-1 L
    4/27/09 Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins u9.5 7-1 W


    MLB: 7-4-1

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    Vega i do believe you are not so dumb you wouldn't understand my remarks about record keeping (but in case you are) here is what i thought .

    http://slickfazzer.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/

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