1. You're damn right I am going to stay the course today and back Philly once again. I understand how important this game is to Orlando because they just cannot go down three games to one as that would be devastating but as I have been saying all along I am not fully sold on Orlando being that playoff savvy, no matter how successful of a season they have had.
Dwight Howard is an unstoppable force and Hedo Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis and a few others including the up and coming Courtney Lee form a very solid squad but these guys are not really all that playoff tested and it is really showing. Not having Jameer Nelson is hurting them here in the postseason as a point guard is sooo important this time of the year. They survived without their little man just fine in the regular season but this is a whole new beast. Rafer Alston and Lee have not been bad at all but Nelson is a key cog that is missed.
Philly point guard Andre Miller is great when he is on and that is exactly what he has been. The former Utah Ute is money in crunch time as is Andre Iguodala and all of a sudden Thaddeus Young has been making game winning shots. With the home court advantage how can I not take some points back at home!?!?!
This is not the lock of my life as the Magic do have the potential to man up and outclass the 6ers in one of these games but until that happens and with the resiliency the Philadelphia players have shown I will continue to back today's home squad and expect another possible outright!
2. The Padres have had a great surprising start to the season compared to what most people thought and we all know how great Jake Peavy can be but this price is just too much for a San Diego team that still has a terrible offense.
I am not sold on either team even with both clubs overachieving a bit in the early going. The Pirates are not good despite just sweeping the 11-1 Marlins, I fully realize that but they are at least capable with McClouth, Morgan, Sanchez, the LaRoche's and a few others and can be pesky at times.
Ross Ohlendorf has shown some flashes this season of being pretty good. Certainly he is no Cy Young and well inferior to Peavy but it's not like Peavy has been all that of late at all and in a game that easily can see runs be at a premium in this pitchers' paradise called PETCO Park I'll take my chances plus this number in a tight low scoring affair for sure.
3. There is no team right now playing better baseball than these Cardinals, save maybe the Red Sox, I do understand that. But Tony LaRussa's club is far from great and has to lose one of these days and when comparing the pitchers this is certainly as good of a day as any for that to happen.
Rich Harden is an absolute stud. He does sometimes throw too many pitches and has to leave the game earlier than he and Lou Pinella would want. The righty also has had a ton of injury issues throughout the years but today with him being healthy and up against a guy in Todd Wellemeyer who is extremely mediocre I will take the huge mismatch on the mound and run with it.
The Cubbies are still clearly the class of the Divison and the superior team. Soriano, Lee, Ramirez, Fukudome and today's visitors backed by Harden is too good to pass up here, even with that label of being the dreaded road chalk.
Wellemeyer is going to get hit and Harden should give us six or so quality innings in win!
Matt Rivers 4-26-09
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