[Jack Rebney]

UNDER yankees/red sox

Game: New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Game Time: 4/26/2009 8:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Yankees and Red Sox to finish UNDER the total. After Friday's opener slipped below the total, these teams were involved in a 16-11 "slugfest" yesterday. I expect a much lower-scoring contest this evening. Pettitte has gotten off to a great start for the Yankees and is 2-0 with a stellar 2.53 ERA and 0.938 WHIP. He's averaging better than seven innings per start and ALL three of his games have finished below the total. Those games averaged less than seven combined runs each, with scores of 4-1, 4-3 and 5-3. Its also worth noting that Pettitte is a solid 6-2 with a 3.53 ERA in 15 career games at Fenway. In his last start here, he allowed just one earned run through six complete innings. Justin Masterson goes for the Red Sox. He's only made one start against the Yankees, allowing only two runs through six complete innings. That game finished with a score of 2-1. Masterson has made one start so far this season and he allowed just four hits and one run (1.69 ERA, 1.126 WHIP) in 5 1/3 innings. Note that he's supported by a Boston bullpen which has a 1.98 ERA at home so far this season. Both teams have a long history of bouncing back with a low-scoring game, after allowing their opponent to reach double-digits in runs. Excluding 'pushes,' the Yankees have seen the UNDER go 93-74 the last 167 times that they allowed 10 or more runs in their previous game. That includes a 15-10 mark the last few seasons. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have seen the UNDER go 86-67 the last 153 times that they allowed 10 or more runs in their previous game, including a profitable 14-8 mark their last 22 in that situation. Look for those numbers to improve as this evening's contest proves lower-scoring than most are expecting. *AL East TOM
TIGERS

Game: Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals Game Time: 4/26/2009 2:10:00 PM Prediction: Detroit Tigers Reason: I'm laying the price with DETROIT. After KC easily won (6-1) Friday's opener, the Tigers returned the favor by pounding the Royals by a score of 9-1 yesterday. I expect the Tigers to enjoy a significant advantage on the mound this afternoon and I look for them to close out the series with another victory. Galarraga goes for the Tigers and he was their best pitcher last season. He's been "doing it again" this year as he's already off to a 2-0 start with an outstanding 1.96 ERA. When I won with Galarraga (15-2 win over Texas) a couple of weeks ago, I noted that he had been excellent in his daytime starts last season. Last year, Galarraga was 6-2 with a 2.69 ERA when pitching during the afternoon. This year, he's already 2-0 with a 0.68 ERA in his two daytime starts - opposing hitters are batting just .191 in those games. It's also worth noting that Galarraga has an excellent 1.93 ERA (0.929 WHIP) in two starts vs. the Royals. The Tigers won those two games by a combined score of 11-3. While Galarraga has a ton of potential, KC's Sidney Ponson is on the downside of a very mediocre (90-108, 4.96 ERA) career. In fact, when looking at his stats, its remarkable that he's still even in the majors. His ERA's for the last five seasons are as follows: 5.30, 6.21, 6.25, 6.93 and 5.04. This year, he's off to an 0-2 (Royals are 0-3) start with a terrible 7.04 ERA. He's also got an ugly 6.62 ERA against the Tigers. In his last two starts against them, he's allowed 13 runs (11 earned) in just seven innings. While the teams bring equal records into this afternoon's game, the Tigers have been much better in "day" games. Look for the youngster to get the better of veteran and for the Tigers to close out the series with another convincing victory. *Personal Favorite

[yisman]

also Minnesota Twins