Larry Ness' 15* Underdog Shocker-MLB (13-2 in MLB the L7 days!)-Day
My 15* Underdog Shocker is on the Cin Reds at 1:10 ET. The Braves opened the 2009 season 5-1 but then lost five straight from 4/14 through 4/18. They won 11-1 last Sunday at Pittsburgh (to avoid a three-game sweep) but are 2-2 this week (so far), which gives them just THREE wins in their last 10 games. Except for that 11-run outburst last Sunday, the Braves have scored just 17 runs in their other nine games in their current 10-game slide of 3-7. In fairness, injuries have played a part in the team's offensive struggles, as Yunel Escobar, Chipper Jones, and Brian McCann have all missed time. More bad news came yesterday, as Garrett Anderson was placed on the DL with a strained quad. Catcher Brian McCann may soon join him, as he continues to suffer from blurred vision in his right eye and he may have to undergo a second Lasik surgery. The Reds played 10 road games over 11 days (4/13-4/23) and must be happy to get back home, although last night's 4-3 loss to the Braves was not the best way to open the series. However, Cincy's 9-7 start cannot be disappointing for a team which was 74-88 last year. Bronson Arroyo has started three times in 2009 and while he's been far from dominating, he's 3-0 (4.19 ERA). He won a career-high 15 games last season, despite opponents hitting .281 against him. Only Colorado's Aaron Cook won as many games with a higher opponents' batting average. Through three starts this season, opponents are batting .296 vs Arroyo but he had his longest outing of '09 on Monday (seven innings) and has been improving with each start. Lowe was Atlanta's big free agent sign�e during the off-season. Lowe was brilliant at Philadelphia in the MLB '09 opener (April 5), going eight inning vs the defending champs, allowing just two hits and no runs. However, his second start was limited to three innings due to weather (game was resumed and the Braves won 6-5 in 10 innings). He's not been sharp in his last two starts, allowing 14 hits and seven ERs over 11 innings (5.73 ERA), with the Braves losing both games. I believe this guy is overrated. Yes, he won 21 games for the Red Sox in 2002 and then in 2004, famously claimed the distinction of winning the series-clinching victory in three straight postseason series for the Red Sox. That got him a HUGE four-year deal with the Dodgers. Everyone loves to "talk this guy up" but here's the cold, hard facts. In his four years with LA he went 54-48 (.529) with a 3.59 ERA. Throw in some postseason starts and in 139 games, LA was 72-67 in all of his outings, which is a winning percentage of .518. Big deal! I'm jumping 'all over' the Reds here as an underdog and why not? A look back to last year reveals that the Braves went an abysmal 3-16 in road day games vs right-handed starters last season (minus-$1,425), averaging only 4.1 RPG. In two tries in '09 in road day games vs righties, the Braves are 0-2. That's a "go-against" run of 18-3 or 85.7%. That's good enough for me. Underdog Shocker 15* Cin Reds.

Good Luck...Larry