04-25-09, 12:03 PM
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Wunderdog (fp) and ponies 4/25/2009
free play:
Game: Denver at New Orleans (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: First Half UNDER 99 -110There is a contrast between these teams’ styles at home and on the road. Particularly in the situation that applies here as we have a top 10 offense against a top 10 defense. This should be a statement game for the Hornets, and their best statement can be made on the defensive end, where I expect them to come out playing very intensely. There is also a situation that is live for this game that shows when the total is in this range, a team off a 10+ point win that is well rested (five games or less in 14 days), has shown the first half to go UNDER to the tune of 46-17. That is 73% of the time. As a result, I will play the first-half UNDER.
PAY PLAYS FOR PONIES:
CHURCHILL DOWNS Race #7 at 3:40 PM Eastern
Top pick: #1 (SALUTE THE COUNT) - Talented turf performer has been freshened-up by trainer Mike Maker since a "gutsy" win at Gulfstream in fast time early in that meet. Working well for this and he's beaten better fields than this in the past. Draws the hedge and he's the horse to beat. 2nd pick: #5 (Cool Hero) - This race doesn't have a lot of speed on paper so this runner's fine tactical speed is dangerous. Held well last out at the Fair Grounds to finish fourth in a race with a fast pace. He's worked three times since and is a win threat. 3rd pick: #2 (He Loves Me Not) - Runner was recently re-claimed by the Billy Hays/Joe Woodard duo and he won his only previous grass race last fall for these connections. Contender at square odds. 4th pick: #11 (Lord Robyn) - Likes the infield and a recent second-place finish at Keeneland on their "poly" should set him up for a good try this afternoon, though the post (11) is a bit of a negative.
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