Craig Davis 4/25/2009
50 Dime ---- HEAT
20 Dime ---- LAKERS
MIAMI HEAT --- Absolutely love this play tonight. I've been waiting for this series to come back to Miami since it started, and it actually plays into our hands that Miami won game 2 the way they did.
After the Heat suffered a near 30-point beatdown in Game 1, they answered the call in Game 2 and scored 108 points in a 15-point win. Dwayne Wade looked as good as he has all season and led this team on the offensive and defensive end of the floor. You see, that's the difference here. Wade has the experience of playing in (and winning) an NBA Championship, and if he has to, he'll carry this team on his back to the next round. Atlanta is a nice, young team that really has no veteran leadership... no one they can rely on in crunch time.
But to be honest, one of the biggest reasons I like this game tonight is home court advantage. It's not often I back a team based as much on the home court as I'm doing tonight. But there's something about Miami and playing at home that I simply can't ignore. Not only has this team covered seven of their last ten home games, they've won 28 of 41 home contests and their average margin of victory in their last ten was nearly 10 PPG.
Miami's last home game vs. Atlanta this season (January 26th) was a 95-79 win completely dominated by the Heat in the second quarter. In this series, whoever wins the second quarter wins the game and wins big. It seems as if that's been the status quo in this series to date.
Do you trust Atlanta on the road, seriously? They are just 3-7 ATS in their last seven roadies and haven't competed in five of them. Their last two road wins came against lowly Toronto and Milwaukee and that's because neither of those teams play a lick of defense.
The Hawks don't have a single trend in their favor, dropping their last four ATS as a dog, six of their last seven after allowing 100+ points in the previous game, and four of their last five overall. Miami, meanwhile, has covered their last five home games vs. a team with a losing record on the road and five of their last six home games when giving between 1 and 5 points.
This one is all Heat and it's my favorite game of the playoffs thus far.
LAKERS --- Okay, the fun's over for Utah. It was a nice comeback win over LA in Game 3 but it took the Lakers completely falling apart in the fourth quarter to get Utah back in the game and eventually over the hump. The Lakers held a 64-51 third quarter lead with just a few minutes left, but allowed Utah back in the game with dismal shooting. That might happen on a rare occasion now and then, but it won't happen in back-to-back games. Not with the Lakers.
LA cruised to two easy wins at home, and despite slipping in the 4th quarter a few days ago, they're clearly the better team and won't let another win slip away from them. Pau Gasol won't miss six free throws and Kobe Bryant won't miss 19 shots and Utah won't be close in the fourth quarter.
Yes, I realize the Jazz are an impressive 33-8 at home, but I'm also aware the Lakers are 29-12 on the road and I know they'll come out with a new attitude after letting Game 3 get away.
The Lakers have covered five of their last seven as a favorite and six of their last eight in this round of the playoffs. Utah is a measly 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a SU win and they don't play well on Saturdays (if you believe in that stuff).
Bottom line: the Lakers are better, and when you can get a #1 seed giving just a few points against an 8-seed, you take it. Lakers win 105-95 and get the easy cover tonight.
BOUGHT, PAID AND CONFIRMED
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