Burns 4-23-09
Baseball (MLB)
UNDER tampa/seattle
Game: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners Game Time: 4/23/2009 6:40:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Tampa Bay and Seattle to finish UNDER the total. After a 4-2 score in the opener, yesterday's game was high-scoring. I expect the starting pitcher's to steal the spotlight in this afternoon's finale. Although this is a late afternoon start, it's still a day game. That's noteworthy as neither team has hit as well, or scored as many runs, during the day so far this season. The Rays are hitting .246 and averaging 4.6 runs in their afternoon games. The Mariners are batting .247 while scoring a mere 3.2 runs, when playing during the afternoon. Hernandez goes for the M's and he's coming off yet another quality start. He's faced the Rays just twice the past two seasons, once in 2007 and once in 2008. Both those games were here in Seattle and both finished with scores of 2-1, including one vs. Shields. Hernandez allowed a mere two runs in 15 2/3 innings in those two starts. Overall, he's got a stellar 2.54 ERA and 0.974 WHIP in five starts vs. the Rays. Not to be outdone, Shields comes in with an even better 2.12 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in four starts vs. Seattle. All four finished below the total. Shields' last road start came at Baltimore and he tossed seven shutout innings, allowing just three hits. Look for both starting pitchers to be at their best again this afternoon. *Blue Chip
Basketball (NBA)
UNDER lakers/jazz
Game: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Utah Jazz Game Time: 4/23/2009 10:35:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Lakers and Jazz to finish UNDER the total. The first two games at LA both finished above the total. The first game barely did so. The second game did so comfortably. Those results have caused us to see a higher over/under number for tonight's Game 3. In my opinion, it's providing us with excellent value. Often, a change of venue brings a different pace and/or style of game. Playing on their home floor, I expect the Jazz to do a much better job of slowing down the Lakers. Note that the Jazz allow a high 106.3 points per game on the road but just 95.5 points per game on the road. Overall, the UNDER was 22-18-1 in games played here. The Lakers come in having seen 10 of their last 15 road games having stayed below the total. Despite the high-scoring Game 2 result, they've also still seen the UNDER go 8-4 the last dozen times that they were leading in a playoff series. I expect those numbers to improve with this evening's final combined score staying beneath the generous number.
UNDER celtics/bulls
Game: Boston Celtics vs. Chicago Bulls Game Time: 4/23/2009 8:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Bulls and Celtics to finish UNDER the total. The first two games at Boston both finished above the total. The first game needed overtime to do so. The second game did so comfortably. Those results have caused us to see a higher over/under number for tonight's Game 3. I feel that bigger number provides us with excellent value. Note that the Celtics have seen the UNDER go 3-0 the last three times that they played a road game with a total in the 200 to 204.5 range. The Celtics have been playing much lower-scoring games on the road all season long. In fact, they were the only Eastern Conference team to allow less points per game on the road than they did at home. While they did play a high-scoring game here in March, the UNDER was still a profitable 26-15 in the Celtics' road games during the regular season. Look for tonight's game to be the lowest scoring of the series, thus far, with the UNDER improving to 14-6 the last 20 times that the Celtics were getting points on the road.
UNDER mavs/spurs
Game: San Antonio Spurs vs. Dallas Mavericks Game Time: 4/23/2009 8:35:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Spurs and Mavericks to finish UNDER the total. After the Game 1 final score finished above the total, Game 2 landed right on, or above, the number, depending on when and where one played. Tonight's total is higher. I feel that it's too high. The Mavs closed out the regular season by seeing each of their final three home games stay below the total, including a 95-84 win over Houston in their final game here. A look at the last six games in which the Mavs hosted the Spurs shows that five of those games had over/under lines in the 180s. (The other was 191). Tonight's line has climbed into the low 190s, despite the fact that it's a critical playoff game and despite the fact that the Spurs are without one of their key offensive weapons. Despite playing some very high-scoring teams, the Spurs have seen four straight road games produce 188 combined points or less. Not surprisingly, three of those games stayed below the total. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at 9-5 their last 14 road games and 79-60-2 in their road games over the past few seasons. During that same stretch, the Spurs have seen the UNDER go 91-60-2 when facing a team with a winning record. The Spurs played a great defensive game last time out to tie up the series. Note that they've seen the UNDER go 4-1 the last five times that they were tied in a playoff series. Playing at home, now I expect the Mavs to also elevate their defensive intensity. Look for that to lead to the final score staying below the generous total. *Main Event
Hockey (NHL)
DEVILS
Game: Carolina Hurricanes vs. New Jersey Devils Game Time: 4/23/2009 7:35:00 PM Prediction: New Jersey Devils Reason: I'm laying the price with NEW JERSEY. The Devils dropped the last game on a disputed goal. Returning home to their own rink, I expect them to be at their best and look for them to regain the lead in the series. Martin Brodeur, New Jersey's longtime superstar goalie, had this to say of the last game: "We learned a lot from the game. We didn't play well for two periods and played really well in the third and were able to get back in the game. When we play a certain way we dominate that team. That's what we need to focus on." Brodeur will be highly motivated to bounce back with a big effort. For starters, he's always been a "big game" goalie, having been here many times. Additionally, he was really upset by Carolina's winning goal. Note that the Devils are 40-26 the last 66 times that they were coming off a game in which they allowed four or more goals, including 15-7 (+7.2) their last 22 in that situation. While the teams split the first two games here, a closer looks shows that the Devils had an edge in total shots in both games, having an overall 73-51 edge in the two games. Including those results, the Devils are 12-3 (+7.3) the last 15 times that they played a home game with a total of five or less. During the same stretch, the Hurricanes are just 1-6 (-4.8) when playing a road game with a total of five or less. Behind a big game from Brodeur, look for the Devils to bounce back. *Personal Favorite
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