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Larry Ness 4-21-09
My Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Por Blazers at 10:05 ET. The Blazers have been led all season by Roy (22.6-4.7-5.1) and Aldridge (18.1-7.5) but the team broke a five-year playoff drought mainly because of the way so many other players were able to contribute on a regular basis. While Oden (8.9-7.0) still has not come close to justifying being the NBA's overall No. 1 pick, he and Pryzbilla (5.5-8.3) have formed a very good center combo for the Blazers. However, in Game 1 of this series, Houston's Yao Ming had his way with Portland's center duo, making all nine of his FG attempts, while going 6-of-6 from the FT line as well (24 points / nine rebounds). Four of Houston's five starters scored in double digits (led by Brooks' 27), as the Rockets routed the Blazers, 108-81. All of Yao's points came in the first half and Houston extended its lead to as many as 31, before settling for the 27-point victory. Roy scored 21 points for Portland (10-of-23 from the floor), while the other four starters were a combined 10-of-27 from the floor, for 37.0 percent. I want to give the Rockets a great deal of credit for their excellent effort on Saturday, as a few days earlier, the team lost an important game at Dallas. The Rockets entered the season's final regular season game with a chance to take the Southwest Division title with a win over the Mavs and even had a chance to capture the West's No. 2 seed (needed the Nuggets to lose in Portland). However, the Rockets blew a double-digit third quarter lead in that game and the 95-84 loss saw them fall all the way to the West's No. 5 seed. While the team's effort on Saturday was impressive, how can anyone really trust this team? The truth is, the Rockets have not made it out of the first round of the playoffs in six tries since 1997. Expect the Blazers to regain their 'swagger' here in the Rose Garden tonight. Portland was 34-7 SU and 27-14 ATS in home games during the regular season, winning on average by just barely over 10 PPG. Expect Roy to shoot way better in Game 2 and for the rest of the Blazers to return to normalcy as well. Weekly Wipeout Winner Por Blazers.
My 15* Team Mismatch is on the Phi Phillies at 7:05 ET. The Brewers (LY's wild card gave the team its first playoff appearance since 1982) and Phillies were both playoff teams from 2008 with the Phillies going on to win their first World Series title since 1980. However, both have struggled to open the 2009 season, as Milwaukee enters this three-game series at Philadelphia 4-8, with the defending champs coming in at 5-6. The Brewers lost CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets from their rotation in the off-season and the team's ERA is 5.16 after 12 games. On top of that, the Brewers are batting just .224 as a team (ranks 28th of 30 teams), while averaging a meager 4.08 RPG. They had dropped SIX of their previous seven games before avoiding a sweep at New York on Sunday, beating the Mets 4-2. Pitching has been a major concern for the Phillies as well, with a team ERA of 6.87, including an ERA of 7.67 from their starting rotation. The Phillies have however, hit the ball fairly well. After a slow start, the Phillies are batting .271 as a team, while averaging 5.36 RPG. Manny Parra went 10-8 with 4.39 ERA last year as a rookie, with the Brewers going 14-15 in his 29 starts. Like so many of Milwaukee's pitchers, he was much better at home (team was 9-7 as Parra's ERA was 3.42), than he was on the road (team was 5-8, as Parra posted a 5.37 ERA). Starting for Philly is 46-year-old Jamie Moyer (1-1, 6.55 ERA). He was originally scheduled to start Monday's series finale against the Padres but that game was postponed due to rain. Moyer has not been sharp in his first two starts but let's not forget he was 16-7 with a 3.71 ERA last season, as the Phillies went an impressive 22-11 in his 33 regular season starts (plus-$1,021 vs the moneyline). Moyer's career mark is 9-5 with a 3.63 ERA vs the Brewers, with his teams going a solid 12-6. The Brewers were eliminated in four games by the Phillies in last year's NLDS and in taking EIGHT of 10 meetings from Milwaukee last season (including the NLDS), went a perfect 6-0 here at home vs the Brewers. Going back to the beginning of the 2007 season, the Phiilies are 9-1 at home against the Brewers.Team Mismatch 15* Phi Phillies.
My Oddsmaker's Error is on the StL Cards at 8:15 ET. The Mets enter this three-game series with the Cards 6-6. The Cards won seven of eight games to reach 8-3 after 11 games on 4/16 but then lost back-to-back heartbreakers in Wrigley Field, 8-7 on Friday and 7-5 (11 innings) on Saturday (Sunday's game was postponed). New York's early season mediocrity has a lot to do with the team's continued inability to "hit in the clutch." The Mets hit .253 with RISP last season (T-11th in the NL), batting .236 in those situations over their final 17 games of LY's regular season. As most remember, the Mets blew a division lead to the Phillies for the second straight year last season, going 7-10 over their last 17, blowing a 3 1/2 game lead. Same old, same old this year, as New York is hitting .236 with RISP to open 2009, after going 2-for-13 in those situations during Sunday's 4-2 loss to Milwaukee (Mets left 13 men on base in Friday's 5-4 win). The Cards are 5-2 in Busch this year, scoring 5.43 RPG, while allowing 3.14. Todd Wellemeyer gets the ball tonight for the Cards, after his scheduled start at Wrigley on Sunday was postponed due to rain. Wellemeyer made 103 appearances (all out of the bullpen) from 2003-06 and in 2007 began the season with KC as a reliever. He was traded to the Cards in mid-summer and like St Louis has done with a number of other relievers (Wainwright and Looper come to mind), the Cards put him in the starting rotation down the stretch of the 2007 season. The Cards won NINE of Wellemeyer's 11 starts to finish 2007, going plus-$955. He was strictly a starter last year (32 starts), going 13-9 with a 3.71 ERA, although the Cards were a modest 15-17 (minus-$228) in those starts. Wellemeyer struggled in his first outing of 2009 (5 IP / 12 hits / 5 ERs) but bounced back a week ago Monday night, by allowing one run over seven innings in a 2-1 win at Arizona. It's been a long stretch since his last start but Wellemeyer, a longtime reliever, will not be adversely affected by the lay off. Oliver Perez will start for the Mets. Perez looked to be an up and coming star back in 2004 with the Pirates, going 12-10 with a 2.98 ERA (239 Ks in 196 IP). However, he fell to 7-5 with a 5.85 ERA in 20 starts the following year, before going a pathetic 3-13 (6.55 ERA) in 2006. During that year he was traded to the Mets and did pitch surprising well for them in the postseason. That led to a solid 15-10 (3.56) season in 2007 (team was 17-12 in his starts) and a 10-7 (4.22) year in 2008 (team was 19-15). Perez had an 'ugly' first outing in 2009, allowing eight runs and five hits with five walks in 4.1 innings of an 8-6 loss at Cincinnati on April 9. However, the left-hander rebounded by allowing one run and three hits in six innings of a 7-2 win over San Diego last Wednesday. The Cards went just 28-29 vs lefties last season but while they were 2-12 vs left-handers in day road games (3.2 RPG), they were 9-5 in night home games vs lefties (4.6 RPG). It bodes well that Perez owns a 5.84 ERA in five starts here at Busch and at this price (around pick'em), the Cards are a 'steal.' Oddsmaker's Error StL Cards.
My 15* Bailout Blowout is on the Sea Mariners at 10:10 ET. The defending AL champs just completed a 2-5 homestand (Rays were a ML-best 57-24 at home LY, as well as winning a ML-high $2,701 vs the moneyline). Tampa is now 5-8 to open the 2009 season (minus-$393), as they get set to open a nine-game road swing with a three-game set in Seattle. The Mariners went 61-101 last year but have opened a 8-5 in 2009, not bad considering Ichiro spent the first seven games on the DL. Tampa's team ERA is 5.37 ERA on the season and will be hoping its rotation can "find itself" on this trip. Andy Sonnanstine will get the start tonight for the Rays. He struggled as a rookie in 2007 with a 6-10 (5.85) mark, as Tampa went only 7-15 in his 22 starts. However, he was a solid part of Tampa's re-birth in 2008, going 13-9 with a 4.38 ERA is 32 starts (team was 20-12 and plus-$922). Let's note though, that the Rays were only 40-41 on the road last season when they went 97-75 (.599) on the year, so I look for them to "come back to earth" in 2009. That's been the case in the early going and Sonnanstine is far from being an established talent. He was terrible in his first start, allowing eight hits and five ERs (4.2 IP) in a 5-4 loss at Baltimore but better on 4/15 at home in a 4-3 loss to the Yanks, in which he received a no decision. He lasted just five innings in that game though, while allowing four hits and two ERs. Tampa is 0-2 in his first two starts of '09, while his mound opponent tonight, Jarrod Washburn, is 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA for Seattle to open the new season. I've been very critical of Washburn these last few years and with good reason. His 18-6 (3.15) season of 2002 (Angels won World Series that year) is long forgotten and these last three years in Seattle have been a 'nightmare.' Washburn has gone 23-43 (4.55), with the Mariners going 37-52 in his 89 starts from 2006-08. However, he's been sharp so far in 2009, as has the entire Seattle rotation which owns a 3.35 ERA. The left-hander has always done well vs the Rays, posting an 11-3 career record vs Tampa Bay, with a 2.60 ERA in 16 starts (teams are 11-5). The Rays of 2009 are not as bad as the pre-2008 Rays but they are also not going to be the 97-win team they were last year, either. Bailout Blowout 15* Sea Mariners.
Good Luck...Larry
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