[genero]

Burns

Flames

Under Montreal

Montreal
______

Celtics

Spurs UNDER

Phillies

[InTheHole]

Thank you for the contribution

[Bigtime Donk]

Thanks for the hockey. He's on an 11-2 NHL Run and is 68-46 (60% in NHL)

[InTheHole]

11-2...wow

Doc must buy his picks

[InTheHole]

Burns NBA

Basketball (NBA)

CELTICS

Game: Chicago Bulls vs. Boston Celtics Game Time: 4/20/2009 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Boston Celtics Reason: I'm laying the points with BOSTON. The Celtics clearly miss Kevin Garnett. However, they've still got plenty of talent. They're also still the champs (for now) and I expect Saturday's loss to be a real wake-up call. Note that the Celts are a highly profitable 31-13-2 ATS the last 46 times that they attempted to avenge a home loss. Additionally, note that they were 12-5 ATS (15-2 SU) this season after allowing 105 or more points in their previous game. Center Kendrick Perkins summed up the champs' mentality: "You've got to be angry. It's the playoffs and we were at home. I'm going to be mad all the way up until after we get the win." Yes, the Bulls Game 1 victory was impressive. Keep in mind that they were just 13-28 on the road this season though. Also, note that they typically don't play well after a big upset win. In fact, they're just 13-27-1 ATS (11-30 SU) the last 41 times that they were coming off a SU win when listed as an underdog. Sure, the Bulls would love to win. However, even if they don't win this game, they will have already "accomplished their mission" by having split these first two games. I expect the "angry" champs to elevate their level of play and I look for that to lead to a convincing win and cover. *Personal Favorite
UNDER spurs/mavs

Game: Dallas Mavericks vs. San Antonio Spurs Game Time: 4/20/2009 9:35:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Spurs and Mavericks to finish UNDER the total. After Game 1 finished above the total, we're now getting a little bit higher of an over/under line to work with. While that higher number provides us with some extra line value, I expect a much lower-scoring game. Even with the Game 1 result, the Mavericks have still seen the UNDER go 26-16 on the road this season. They've also still seen the UNDER go 11-6-1 their last 18 visits to San Antonio. Additionally, note that they've seen the UNDER go 18-10 after scoring 105 or more points in their previous game. Even with the Game 1 result, the Spurs have still seen the UNDER go 91-59 (excluding pushes) the last 150 times that they faced a team with a winning record. Now that they're trailing in a playoff series, I expect the Spurs to crank up the defensive intensity. Note that the UNDER is 21-7 the last 28 times that the Spurs were trailing in a playoff series. That includes a profitable 7-2 mark their last nine in that situation. Look for those numbers to improve and for the final combined score to finish below what I believe is a very generous total. *Top Southwest Division Total

[InTheHole]

Burns MLB

Baseball (MLB)

PHILLIES

Game: San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Game Time: 4/20/2009 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies Reason: I'm laying the price with PHILADELPHIA. In addition to pitching (starting and relief) hitting, matchups and various other factors, I believe that its important to consider "momentum" when handicapping baseball. The Padres entered yesterday's game with a ton of momentum, having won three straight and eight of nine. Conversely, the Phillies came in having lost three straight. It appeared that those streaks would continue as the Padres were up 4-0 after five innings. The champs battled all the way back for a 5-4 win though, winning the game with a two-run home run in the ninth. For a good team like the Phillies, that's the type of win that can get things turned around and which can lead to them stringing together a few victories. On the other hand, that type of loss can be deflating for any team, particularly one (like San Diego) which isn't used to dealing with success. Moyer gets the call for the champs and it's true that he's getting pretty ancient. However, it's also true that the Phillies are 14-6 the last 20 times that he took the mound. Moyer allowed four earned runs or less in 17 of those 20 starts, including both this season. Kevin Correia has gotten off to a "respectable" (0-1, 4.09 ERA) start. Before getting too excited about htat mediocre start, note that he was 3-8 with an awful 6.05 ERA and 1.71 WHIP last season. The Phillies are a profitable 27-8 (+14) the last 35 times that they were home favorites in this range. Look for them to build some positive momentum from yesterday's comeback as they hit Correia hard and close out the series with a victory

[InTheHole]

Burns NHL

Hockey (NHL)

CALGARY

Game: Chicago Blackhawks vs. Calgary Flames Game Time: 4/20/2009 9:35:00 PM Prediction: Calgary Flames Reason: I'm laying the price with CALGARY. The Flames could have easily earned (at least) a split in Chicago. They didn't though and that puts them in "must win" mode here. I expect this veteran team, which was built for playoff success, to respond with a huge effort. It's true that the Hawks have had some recent success here. However, as Chicago right winger Adam Burish noted: "We've been good there, but who cares now?" He went on to add: "It's a different beast. Calgary is always one of the hardest places to play...It's a crazy environment..." Despite their regular season success here, the Hawks were still just 22-19 on the road this season. The Flames, on the other hand, were 27-14 at home. Note that the Hawks are just 9-20 (-11.6) the last 29 times that they were coming off three or more consecutive home games, including a 3-8 mark in that situation this season. Looking back to last year's first round and we find that the Flames, who were facing a very good San Jose team, also started off on the road. They came back home for Game 3 and won by a score of 4-3. Look for another highly motivated effort from the Flames as they bounce back and improve to 6-3 the last nine times that they were trailing in a playoff series. *Annihilator
UNDER montreal/boston

Game: Boston Bruins vs. Montreal Canadiens Game Time: 4/20/2009 7:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Boston and Montreal to finish UNDER the number. The first two games have both finished with six goals. Both could have easily finished with less. The sixth goal in the first game came on an empty net goal, off a give-away with 15 seconds left. The second game saw shaky goaltending from Montreal's Carey Price. Regardless of whether it's Price or Jaroslav Halak in the net, I expect Montreal to receive better goaltending tonight. Price has allowed three goals or less in 12 of his last 15 home starts. He's also allowed three or less in four straight home games vs. the Burins and eight of his last nine against them here. Halak has come confidence after stopping all five shots he faced in the third period of Game 2. He's also got a stellar 1.89 GAA in five previous games against the Bruins, four of which stayed below the total. The Bruins saw the UNDER go 18-13 this season when playing a road game with a total of 5.5. The Canadiens saw the UNDER go 16-11 when playing a home game with a line of 5.5. Looking back to last year's playoff series and we find that Game 3 finished with a score of 2-1. The score was 1-1 after regulation. I expect another low-scoring affair. *Blue Chip
MONTREAL

Game: Boston Bruins vs. Montreal Canadiens Game Time: 4/20/2009 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Montreal Canadiens Reason: I'm playing on MONTREAL. The Bruins won both games at Boston. The first one was very close and the second one wasn't. That convincing (5-1) victory has helped add to the impression that this is a very lopsided series. This, in turn, has given us a very generous line with the home underdog. Up 2-0, history tells us that Boston is likely to win the series. After all, teams holding a two-game lead in NHL playoff series have went on to win that series 87.3 percent of the time. Don't expect the Canadiens to just roll over and play dead though. Looking back to last year's first round playoff series and we find that the roles were reversed. The Canadiens were a big favorite coming into that series and they took care of business by winning the first two games at Montreal. When the series shifted back to Boston for Game 3, like tonight, it was the visiting team which was favored. However, the home underdog (Bruins) scored the "upset" that night, winning by a score of 2-1. While most had given them up for dead, the Bruins managed to take the series all the way to seven games. Note that the Bruins, already without defenseman Matt Hunwick, will be without Milan Lucic for this game, as he'll be serving a suspension. The Canadiens are 55-45 (+11.1) the last 100 times that they were coming off three straight losses. With the support of the home fans behind them, look for them to bounce back with a huge effort and get back in the series.

[yisman]

Burns is also on Washington (NHL).


PICK: Washington Capitals -125

REASON FOR PICK: Up 2-0, history tells us that New York is likely to win the series. After all, teams holding a two-game lead in NHL playoff series have went on to win that series 87.3 percent of the time. Don't expect the Capitals to just roll over and play dead though.

The Caps had an excellent season. They've got one of the best players (Alexander Ovechkin) in the entire world. Having been knocked out of the playoffs in the first round last season, they're determined not to go down quietly here.

Despite dropping Game 2, the Caps are still 21-7 (+7.6) the last 28 times that they faced a team which defeated them in the previous meeting. They're also 4-1 the last five times that they were coming off three consecutive losses. I look for them to play their best game of the series tonight and for Ovechkin to find the back of the net. Consider Washington