[InTheHole]

Ben Burns

I'm laying the price with TEXAS. The Royals come in as the hotter team and they also bring the hotter pitcher to the mound. While the Royals are going to be improved this year, it's important to remember that its a long season. It's also important not to completely ignore history. Give Davies credit for getting off to a great 2-0 start. However, he's never fared well vs. the Rangers. His team's (KC and Atlanta) are 0-4 in his four starts vs. the Rangers. He'll face a Texas lineup which is potent at home, yesterday's game notwithstanding, and which will be looking to pound someone, after getting blanked yesterday. Now 4-4 at home, the Rangers' four home victories have come by a combined score of 48-20. All three victories came by a minimum of three runs and two of them came by eight or more. Padilla has gotten off to a slow start. Unlike, Davies, he's had some success vs. KC. He's won each of his last two starts vs. the Royals and the Rangers are 3-0 the last three times that he started against them. In his last two home starts against the Royals, he didn't allow a single earned run (1 unearned) through 11 complete innings. He had 13 K's and only two walks and allowed just six combined hits. Look for things to return to "normal" (at least for this afternoon) as the Rangers bounce back and avoid being swept at Arlington for the first time since 2003.

[yisman]

He also has the Yankees.

This price is too expensive to qualify as one of my guaranteed selections. That said, as far as large baseball favorites go, I feel this one has an excellent shot at cashing.

Burnett is coming off a huge year and we was dominant down the stretch. He's carried that momentum into this season, having gone 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA and an awesome 0.90 WHIP through two starts as a Yankee. He's already recorded 15 K's while walking only two. Burnett was always a "Yankee Killer" and this is his home debut. It's safe to say that he'll be fired up.

Conversely, Pavano comes in with an 0-2 record and an awful 16.71 ERA and 2.429 WHIP. He hasn't been very good for years and he was a bust with the Yankees. He won't be received well by the Yankee faithful.

In addition to having a significant advantage on the mound, the Yankees figure to have a strong "motivational" advantage. That's because they just got crushed by a score of 22-4 yesterday. Note that the Yankees are a highly profitable 114-57 (+25.3) the last 171 times that they came off a game in which they allowed double-digits. That includes a 24-12 mark in that situation the past couple of seasons. Consider laying the wood.