Larry Ness 4-19-09
Larry Ness Sunday
MLB ( 2-1 Saturday )
Larry Ness' 10* NBA 1st Round Total
NBA ( 0 - 2 Yesterday )
The Hawks ended an eight-year playoff drought last season and in the first round of the postseason, never backed down from the eventual champs, the Boston Celtics. The Celtics prevailed over the Hawks but needed seven games. Atlanta 'snuck ' into last year's postseason with the worst record of any playoff team () but Atlanta's goal this year was to play well enough to earn home court advantage. The 47-35 Hawks did just that and with a No. 4 seeding, open the 2009 playoffs at home vs the Miami Heat. The Heat are quite a story themselves this year. Miami won the 2005-06 NBA title by beating the Magic, as one of the league's best young players (Wade) and one of it's legends (Shaq), led the way. However, Wade was hurt for most of last season and Shaq was traded away. Just two seasons removed from a title, the Heat finished an embarrassing 15-67. Wade's return to health and the drafting of Michael Beasley (No. 2 overall pick) and Mario Chalmers brought new hope to South Florida this year. With Wade (30.2-5.0-7.5) putting up MVP-like numbers plus Beasley (13.9-5.4 / shot 47.2 percent) and Chalmers (10.0-4.9 APG) both having productive if not spectacular rookie years, the Heat earned the East's No. 5 seed with a 43-39 record. Haslem (10.4-8.1) has played well all season plus getting O'Neal (13.0-5.4 in 27 games) and Moon (7.1-4.5 in 26 games) from the Raptors (for Marion), has worked out very well. The Hawks feature a superb backcourt trio. The starters are Johnson (21.4-4.4-5.8) and Bibby 914.9-3.5-5.0), with Murray (12.2), who was unwanted in Detroit (think he's glad to be out of there?), becoming a terrific reserve. Atlanta's young frontcourt is the envy of many a franchise, led by power forward Josh Smith (15.6-7.2), small forward Marvin Williams (13.7-6.2) and center Al Horford (11.5-9.3). The veteran Evans (7.2) filled in nicely for Williams recently (Williams is ready to go here) and Pachulia (6.2-5.7) is a steady backup at center. This will be a competitive series but what caught my eye in looking at the team's four regular season meetings was this. Despite Wada's ability to put points on the board and Atlanta's scoring depth, the four regular season games averaged a puny 167 PPG, as two games totaled exactly 160 and the other two, exactly 174. So what was the opening total in this Game 1? Try 187, or 20 points ABOVE the four-game average of the series and the 'move' was on the 'under.' I quick check of the injury report shows that for Miami, Haslem (thumb), Moon (groin) and O'Neal (calf) are all probable and for Atlanta, Williams (back) is about ready to resume his role in the starting lineup, or at lest be able to play significant minutes. I'm siding with the oddsmakrers on this one and making a HUGE play on the 'over' in this game.
Eastern Conf 10* Total on Mia/Atl Over.
Larry Ness' 9* Club-80 Play
The A's began the 2009 season with a five-man rotation of Dallas Braden, Trevor Cahill, Dana Eveland, rookie Brett Anderson and Josh Outman. That group owned a combined 63 major league starts entering this year. Braden was their Opening Day starter (lost 3-0 to the Angels) but not a single person in the Oakland organization thinks he has "ace potential." However, the A's go with what they have. Braden went 1-8 with a 6.72 ERA in 2007, making 20 appearances, including 14 starts (team was 5-9, minus-$485). He went 5-4 with a 4.14 ERA last year in 19 appearances, including 10 starts (team was 6-4, plus-$524). Braden pitched well in the opener at the Angels and in his second start (this time at home), pitched six strong innings to beat the visiting Red Sox 8-2 on Monday. He allowed two runs on six hits, walking one and striking out three, retiring 12 of 13 batters at one point. He's 1-1 with a 3.75 ERA after two starts. However, he'll face a Toronto team which went 7-3 vs left-handed starters in home games last year and this year, while the Jays haven't faced a lefty at home in a day game, they have faced two lefties on the road in day games, going 2-0 while scoring 18 runs (nine per).The Blue Jays' bats have 'cooled' somewhat in this series (1-1) but a win here will give 9-4 Toronto its fourth straight series win. The last time Toronto began the season winning its first four series was in 2001. Rookie Ricky Romero (1-0, 2.57 ERA) will get the call, as he looks to continue the impressive start to his major league career. He pitched very well on Tuesday night, as Toronto fell to Minnesota in extra innings, 3-2. Romero earned a no decision by going eight strong innings and allowing only two runs on eight hits. He defeated Detroit in his first start of the season. In that game, Romero went six innings and allowed two runs on seven hits with five Ks. Now here's the really good news for Romero and the Blue Jays. The A's were 0-12 vs left-handed starters in 2008, averaging a woeful 2.0 RPG. This will the team's first try in an afternoon road game vs a lefty in 2009. That 7-3 mark on Toronto in home day games vs lefties plus that 12-0 go-against mark vs the A's in road day games vs lefties gives us a 19-3 mark, or 86.7 percent since the beginning of last year.
Club-80 Play on the Tor Blue Jays
Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-MLB (4-0 TY!)
The Cards and Cubs are, to say the least, bitter (and VERY longtime) rivals. The Cards opened this four-game set with a 7-4 win at Wrigley on Thursday but the Cubs have countered with dramatic wins on both Friday and Saturday. Alfonso Soriano's two-run HR in the eighth inning was the difference in Friday's 8-7 win and Aramis Ramirez's two-run HR in the 11th inning on Saturday, gave the Cubbies a 7-5 win. The Cardinals will hand the ball to Todd Wellemeyer on Sunday night. Wellemeyer made 103 appearances (all out of the bullpen) from 2003-06 and in 2007 began the season with KC as a reliever. He was traded to the Cards in mid-summer and like St Louis has done with a number of other relievers (Wainwright and Looper come to mind), the Cards put him in the starting rotation down the stretch of the 2007 season. The Cards won NINE of Wellemeyer's 11 starts to finish 2007, going plus-$955. He was strictly a starter last year (32 starts), going 13-9 with a 3.71 ERA, although the Cards were a modest 15-17 (minus-$228) in those starts. (1-1, 4.50 ERA). Wellemeyer struggled in his first outing of 2009 (5 IP / 12 hits / 5 ERs), but bounced back this past Monday night, by allowing one run over seven innings in a 2-1 win at Arizona. St Louis will need Wellemeyer to pitch 'deep' into tonight's game, as its bullpen has been asked to pitch too many innings lately and sports an unimpressive 4.98 ERA, so far. The Cubs will counter with Ted Lilly and while their bullpen has seen extensive action as well recently, the results have been better (3.32 ERA). However, the way Lilly pitched in his last outing, the Cubs may only need their closer. He took a no-hitter into the seventh inning and cruised through 6.1 innings, allowing one hit and three walks while striking out eight, as the Cubs beat the Rockies 4-0 on Monday. He's 2-0 with a 3.86 ERA in 2009 and the last two seasons, Lilly has really stepped up for the Cubs. He was 15-8 with a 3.83 ERA in 2007 (team was 19-15 in his starts) and then 17-9 with a 4.09 ERA last year, while the Cubs went an impressive 22-12 in those starts. The Cards went just 12-19 vs lefties on the road last year and the left-handed Lilly has had plenty of success against them in the past. He owns a 6-2 career mark with a 2.99 ERA in 11 lifetime starts (teams are 8-3) vs St Louis. That includes a 4-0 mark in his last seven starts vs the Cards (Cubs are 6-1).
Las Vegas Insider Chi Cubs
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