The Celtics' chance of a repeat took a blow when it was confirmed that Kevin Garnett would miss this series, and likely the rest of the playoffs altogether. That isn't the death blow for the Celtics - at least in this series. In fact, as everyone counts them out now, I look for the rest of the players to step things up and make a statement in this first game. The Bulls did a good job down the stretch as they closed at 12-4 to finish at .500. However, the biggest obstacle for the Bulls is in front of them. They are a terrible road team (13-28 on the season). They finished just 3-17 SU during the regular season on the road against this year's playoff field. That included losses here in Boston by 16 and 18 points. This series reminds me a lot of last year where the Celtics struggled on the road vs. the Hawks, but beat them to a pulp in Boston by an average count of over 25 points per game. The Bulls have not fared well on the road, but have dominated at home lately, much the same as the Hawks from a year ago. Boston is 56-35 ATS over the past two seasons vs. teams that allow 100+ points per game. They are also 53-34 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 55-40 ATS at home over that span. I look for the Celtics to win big at home here and will lay the points.
KEENELAND Race #3 at 2:10 PM Eastern
Top pick: #4 (FLYING WARRIOR) - Son of "Fusaichi Pegasus" will drop into a claimer today for the first time (a 40% winning move by trainer Bill Mott). His best effort came last fall on this surface and he's been freshened-up since a "poor" try last out at Gulfstream. Working well and ready to go.
2nd pick: #10 (Dahlgonit) - He finished second twice last fall on this surface racing at this seven-furlong distance. Makes his seasonal debut and if ready for his best could be a major factor.
3rd pick: #5 (True Crusader) - Another who ran well here last fall, colt ran evenly in his seasonal debut at Gulfstream off a four-month break, and looks set-up nicely by his trainer (John Kimmel) for a big effort.
4th pick: #7 (Capt Jim Hollywood) - Working in solid fashion for his seasonal debut, colt looks to be prepared by his barn (Greg Fox) for a solid try off the bench.
Wunderdog 4-18-09
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