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San Diego (7-3) at Philadelphia (4-4)
The Padres will try to make it seven wins in their last eight games when they send Chris Young (2-0, 1.38 ERA) to the mound in Philadelphia opposite the Phillies’ Cole Hamels (0-1, 17.18).

San Diego took two of three from the Mets on the road this week, including Thursday’s 6-5 win. The Padres have scored six runs or more in five of their last six games and they are 7-3 in their last 10 series openers. Dating back to last season, San Diego is still on a host of negative runs that include 17-45 as a road ‘dog, 15-37 on the road against teams with a winning record and 21-43 as a pup anywhere.

Philadelphia fell 8-2 in Washington on Thursday, ending a three-game winning streak. The Phillies had scored 24 runs during the three-game streak before managing just the two on Thursday. They are on several positive streaks, including 42-19 overall, 26-8 at home, 37-18 as a favorite and 39-18 in series openers.

Philadelphia has won eight of the last 12 series matchups, including four of six last season.

Young has allowed just three runs (two earned) this season and gave up just one unearned run on four hits in seven innings of action against the Giants on Sunday. Last season he gave up two runs on five hits in six innings of a 4-2 win in Philadelphia. The Padres are 6-0 in Young’s last six Friday starts, but they are on slides of 5-11 in his last 16 road outings and 2-6 when he’s a road ‘dog.

Hamels got hammered in his first start of the season – and his first career start at Coors Field – giving up seven runs (all earned) on 11 hits in 3 2/3 innings of a 10-3 loss to the Rockies a week ago today. Prior to that outing, the Phillies had won five straight games and seven of eight with Hamels on the hill, with the lefty allowing two earned runs or fewer and pitching at least six innings in each of those eight games.

Hamels went 7-7 with a 2.99 ERA in 17 home starts last season. He’s also 2-1 with a 2.40 ERA in five career outings against San Diego. Philly is 27-11 in Hamels last 38 home starts and 46-19 in his last 65 outings as a favorite.

With Young on the hill, the Padres are on “over” streaks of 8-3 when he’s a ‘dog, 6-0 when he pitches on Fridays and 5-2 when he starts the series-opener. As a team, San Diego is on “over” runs of 6-2-1 as a road ‘dog, 4-0-1 on the road, 4-0 on Fridays and 5-1 on the road against righties. With Hamels pitching, Philadelphia is on “under” streaks of 7-1 overall and 4-0 at home. As a team the Phillies are on “under” runs of 5-1 as a home favorite and 8-3 as a favorite anywhere, but the over is 5-0-1 in their last six overall and 6-1 in their last seven against the N.L. West.

In this series, the under is 4-1 in the last five clashes.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE


AMERICAN LEAGUE

Baltimore (6-3) at Boston (3-6)

The surprising Orioles will try to keep their early season momentum going when they send Jeremy Guthrie (2-0, 2.25 ERA) to the hill opposite the Red Sox and new acquisition Brad Penny (1-0, 4.50) at Fenway Park.

Baltimore has taken the first two games of each of their three series this season, including in Texas Monday and Tuesday before getting walloped on Wednesday 19-6. The Orioles have scored five or more runs in each of their six victories and have scored three or less in two of their three defeats. Even with the nice start, Baltimore is still on some ugly runs, including 17-37 overall dating back to last season, 15-40 against A.L. East competition, 21-44 as a ‘dog, 5-16 as a road ‘dog and 8-20 against right-handed starters.

The Red Sox have spaced their three wins around a pair of three-game losing streaks, but they managed an 8-2 win in Oakland on Wednesday to salvage a series win. Boston is on some amazing home streaks, including 65-31 overall, 67-31 as a home favorite and 64-30 at home against right-handed starters.

The Red Sox have dominated this series recently, winning 44 of the last 59 meetings and 23 of the last 29 at Fenway. They have also beaten Guthrie in five of the last seven times they’ve faced him.

Guthrie has allowed just three runs in 12 innings this season and is coming off six inning of shutout baseball against the Rays on Saturday, leading Baltimore to a 6-0 win. Guthrie made four starts against Boston last season with the Orioles going 2-2. At Fenway he allowed five runs on seven hits in 4 2/3 innings of a 9-2 loss. Baltimore is just 3-7 in Guthrie’s last 10 outings against A.L. East rivals, but the Orioles are 5-2 when he opens a series and 6-2 when he gets five days of rest.

Penny made his debut for Boston on Saturday and allowed three runs on five hits in six innings as the Red Sox beat the Angels 5-4.

The over is 7-3-1 in Guthrie’s last 11 starts against A.L. East teams, 7-1-1 in his last nine as a ‘dog and 5-1-1 in his last seven series openers. As a team, the Orioles are on “over” streaks of 13-3 after an off-day, 24-9-2 in series openers, 36-16-2 on the road and 49-23-6 as a ‘dogs. For Boston, the over is 5-0 in their last five overall, but the under is on runs of 8-3-1 following an off-day, 8-3-1 on Fridays, 10-3-1 in series openers and 4-1 against A.L. East teams. In this rivalry, the over is 4-1-2 in Guthrie’s last seven starts against the Red Sox.

ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON


Detroit (5-4) at Seattle (7-3)

The red-hot Mariners look to continue their early season success when they send Felix Hernandez (1-0, 4.15) to the mound at Safeco Field against the visiting Tigers and Justin Verlander (0-1, 9.35).

Detroit has won four of its last five games, including a 9-0 drubbing of the White Sox on Wednesday. The Tigers opened the season on the highway and dropped three of four in Toronto. They are just 1-7 in their last eight roadies and they are 4-9 in their last 13 Friday contests.

Seattle had its six-game winning streak snapped on Thursday when it fell at home to the Angels, 5-1. The Mariners had allowed three runs or less in three straight games before Thursday’s loss. Despite last night’s setback, they have still won five of their last six at home but they are on slides of 8-20 against teams with a winning record, 2-6 against A.L. Central squads and 2-5 as a favorite.

While Detroit is 4-1 in its last five overall, the Tigers are on slides of 15-37 as a ‘dog, 12-31 as a road pup, 6-18 in series openers, 1-7 on the road and 4-9 on Fridays. Seattle is on runs of 5-2 at home and 4-0 against righties, but it is on negative streaks of 17-35 after a loss and 8-19 against teams with winning records.

Verlander got rocked in his season debut, giving up eight runs on eight hits in 3 2/3 innings at Toronto, but bounced back on Saturday and gave up just three runs (one earned) on two hits in five innings of a 4-3 home victory over Texas. Verlander faced the Mariners three times last season and the Tigers were 2-1, including a July win in Seattle when he allowed two runs on eight hits in six innings of an 8-4 win. With Verlander on the hill, the Tigers are just 5-13 on the road, 1-4 in series openers and 1-4 on the road against teams with winning records, but they are 12-3 when he faces A.L. West competition.

After a strong season opener in Minnesota, Hernandez got shelled in Oakland on Saturday, giving up five runs on seven hits in five innings, but the Mariners’ offense rallied to win 8-5. Hernandez was spectacular against the Tigers last season, shutting them out on two hits over seven innings of a 5-0 home victory. Seattle is 13-5 when Hernandez opens a series and 8-3 when he faces A.L. Central foes, but the Mariners are just 2-5 in his last seven overall and 1-5 when he goes on grass.

The Tigers are on “over” runs of 12-4 when Verlander opens a series and 7-3 when he’s a ‘dog, and as a team, Detroit is on “under” streaks of 5-2-1 overall and 5-1-1 against teams with a winning record. The Mariners are on “under” runs of 20-9-1 in Hernandez’s last 30 starts, 20-8-3 when he opens a series and 8-2 in his last 10 Friday games, while as a team, Seattle is on “over” rides of 8-2 against right-handed starters, 6-0 as a favorite and 5-1 at home against righties.

Finally, the over is 14-6-1 the last 21 head-to-head clashes overall and 5-2 in Verlander’s last seven against Seattle.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER