[yisman]

Pittsburgh Pirates -113


April is the toughest month for oddsmakers when it comes to baseball. This matchup is a perfect example why.

The linesmakers were way off in making Atlanta and Jair Jurrjens a road favorite. The marketplace has been busy steaming this game toward Pittsburgh.

The marketplace is on the right side. Some value has been lost by getting on the Pirates late, but baseball isn't about pointspreads. Win the game, win your bet. It's that simple.

Look for the Pirates to win this matchup behind ace Paul Maholm. The oddsmakers are still underrating Maholm, who is 1-0 with a 1.32 ERA this season after a breakout year in 2008. Maholm has a 2.77 lifetime ERA versus Atlanta in two starts.

Pittsburgh is 3-0 this season in series openers. The Pirates catch the Braves at an opportune time. The Braves have lost three in a row and are banged-up.

The left side of their infield isn't expected to play. That means no Chipper Jones (thumb) and Yunel Escobar (strained abdominal muscle).

The Braves' bullpen also has a cluster injury problem. The healthy arms haven't been effective. In short, the Braves' bullpen has been a near-disaster area.

Can Jurrjens bail out the Braves' struggling pen? Don't count on it. Yes, he's 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA. But those numbers are deceiving. Jurrjens hasn't reached the seventh inning yet.

He has given up eight walks with just three strikeouts in 11 innings. He has recorded 18 flyball out and only 12 groundball outs. It should be a red flag that he has a 29-to-3 walk/fly ball out-to-strikeout ratio.

The Pirates went 5-2 against the Braves last season. Jurrjens' ERA versus the Pirates last season was 4.35.

We're coming to this party late, but at least we're here and able to profit. This is a one-star play for me.