NBA
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(4 unit play)*NEW ORLEANS -3 (vs. Dallas) - 1:00 pm ET (ABC) #702
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This is a quick home-home revenge game for the Hornets as they just lost at Dallas on Friday night.* The Mavericks are coming off three straight home wins versus the Suns, Jazz, and Hornets.* Dallas is now due for a letdown and they fit a negative 38-66 ATS situation which plays against road teams off a 3+ SU/ATS run.
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The Mavericks have been strong at home this season with a 30-9 SU record, but Dallas is just 18-22 SU on the road which includes a 104-88 loss at New Orleans on March 5th.* Despite losing on Friday, the Hornets have dominated the Mavericks the past two seasons with a 4-1 SU record in the past five head-to-head meetings with wins by 16, 7, 5, and 13 point margins.
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(2 unit opinion)*SACRAMENTO +10 (vs. San Antonio) - 9:05 pm ET #710
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On paper this game is a complete mismatch, however it is hard to imagine the Spurs will be fully focused.*San Antonio is coming off a big home win versus Utah on Friday and the Spurs have another road game on deck tomorrow night.* San Antonio is a veteran team that is also looking to rest key players whenever possible.
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Sacramento was covering for most of the game as an 11-point home underdog versus Houston on Thursday night before collapsing in the fourth quarter.* The Kings carried that letdown into Friday night's game at Los Angeles and they came out flat and were embarrassed by the Clippers.* The Kings are now rested and should put forth a better effort this evening, plus they fit a 61% ATS bounce-back situation and double-digit home underdogs have historically been a strong play in the NBA and the Kings fit a league-wide 90-47 ATS situation based on that premise.
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MLB
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(3 unit play)*UNDER 10 -110 (Rangers/Tigers) (Millwood/Jackson) - 1:05 pm ET #918
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Just because these two teams have potent offenses doesn't mean that occasionally both offenses can be shut down. *Saturday the two teams played to a 4-3 score and easily stayed Under the posted total of 10½ runs.
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Edwin Jackson and Kevin Millwood both made impressive debuts with each giving up only one earned run earlier this week.* Kevin Millwood is 4-4 vs. Detroit with a 3.91 ERA. *More importantly, the Under is 9-1 in his outings against the Tigers and Millwood is now 189-139 Under in all games he has pitched during his big league career.* Millwood pitched better in the second-half of 2008 and he carried that success into last Monday's 9-1 win versus the Indians as Millwood allowed just one run and only five hits in 7 innings of work.
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Edwin Jackson faced the Rangers once last year and lost 3-0 in Texas.* Despite losing 5-4 in Toronto on Tuesday, Jackson looked fantastic and allowed just one earned run and only two hits in 7.3 innings of work.
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(3 unit play)*OVER 9 -115 (Rays/Orioles) (Shields/Eaton) - 1:35 pm ET #921
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The Orioles are on the verge of sweeping Tampa Bay in Camden Yards on Sunday.* Baltimore is one of the pleasant surprises this season starting out 4-1 and will be sending retread righthander Adam Eaton to the mound. *Eaton is 0-2 in his career against the Rays, although the last time he faced them was in 2006.* Eaton was more then generous to opponents last year with the Phillies going 4-8 with a 5.80 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP.* Eaton had even worse numbers this spring, posting a 7.29 ERA and a 1.95 WHIP.
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Tampa Bay's James Shields season did not start off well last Tuesday as he got shelled by Boston.* Shields currently has an 8.44 ERA and a WHIP of 2.25.*The righty is 4-1 against the O's with a 3.21 ERA, including two wins in his last two outings against them. The odd thing is despite that, the Orioles are collectively hitting .284 against him as a team.* Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis, Gregg Zaun, and Adam Jones are all hitting above .300 against Shields.* Another note of interest for Shields is that he is not as good away from home, posting a 4.82 ERA last year away from Tropicana Field.* That is a full 2 runs higher then his home ERA.
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(3 unit play)*UNDER 8 -120 (Yankees/Royals) (Chamberlain/Meche) - 2:10 pm ET #926
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Kansas City has been outclassed in the first two games of the series with the Bronx Bombers so far and now both teams are sending one of their better pitchers to the mound today.* Funny thing is that for New York it is their #4 starter Joba Chamberlain, while it is Kansas City's ace Gil Meche.*Chamberlain made one start against the Royals last year when he was beginning his time as a Yankee starter. *He only went 4 innings, but he managed to hold their offense down to only 2 earned runs.
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Gil Meche defeated the Yankees 4-3 last year in Yankee Stadium, going six innings and giving up six hits and one earned run. *The Under is 10-3 in games where Meche takes on the Bronx Bombers.* The first two games of this weekend series have also stayed Under with total scores of just 5 and 7 runs.* In fact, Kansas City has scored just 2, 2, 2, 1, and 1 run(s) in their five games this season.
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Joba Chamberlain's final exhibition outing saw him give up two runs on two hits over 5.1 innings. *The team is trying to stretch him out a little bit more. *The Royals have a total of 24 at-bats against him with Alex Gordon going 2-for-3, while Coco Crisp is among the many Royals who do not have a hit off Chamberlain.* Gil Meche has faced the Yankees plenty of times and while Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada have had success against the righty, Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, and Nick Swisher have all struggled against the former Mariner.
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(2 unit opinion)*OVER 9 -110 (Twins/White Sox) (Blackburn/Buehrle) - 2:05 pm ET #923
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Chicago pounded the Twins 8-0 yesterday as a +105 home underdog and took care of business against the Twins' ace Francisco Liriano. *Now they take a step down in quality by facing right-hander Nick Blackburn. *Blackburn lasted only five innings in his first outing of the season and gave up four runs and eight hits in a 6-5 win versus the Mariners last Tuesday.* Blackburn is 2-3 against Chicago with a 4.86 ERA and a 1.590 WHIP.* Jim Thome (.357), AJ Pierzynski (.417), Carlos Quentin (.333), and Alexei*Ramirez (.600) all enjoy seeing Blackburn on the mound.
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Going for the White Sox is the enigmatic Mark Buehrle who has faced the Twins 34 times in his career going 21-13 with a 3.78 ERA. *Last season alone on back-to-back outings he won 11-2 at home over the Twins giving up one earned run then followed that with 4 earned runs and a loss in Minnesota.* The Twins hit .317 as a team against the lefty with*Carlos Gomez (.545), Mike Redmond (.500), Delmon Young (.389), and Brendan Harris (.313) enjoying the most success. *Another trend going in our direction is that 12 of the last*20 games in Chicago have gone Over the total.
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(light opinion)*PHILADELPHIA +120 (Park/Cook) - 3:10 pm ET #909
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Solid value with the World Series champions at an underdog price.* The Phillies' bats awoke on Saturday night in Colorado and will have one more game in the Mile High City and will be happy to face Aaron Cook who was terrible on opening day when he allowed 6 runs and 7 hits in just 2.3 innings of work at Arizona.* Philadelphia has dominated Cook who has a weak 1-4 record with an ERA of 6.37 against the Phillies.* Granted they haven't faced him since July of 2007, but Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley*, Ryan Howard, and Jayson Werth all hit above .300 against Cook.
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The Phillies are sending Chan Ho Park to the mound who is very familiar with Coors Field from*his time with the Dodgers. *The last two times pitching there, he came out on top 13-4 and 7-2 going*7 innings in each outing.* Park saw limited action last season, but he pitched well and allowed one earned run or less in four of his five starts.
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-Bob O'Conner
www.SportsBob.com
Excellence in Sports Handicapping