Jeff Suppan (0-1, 13.50 ERA) looks to bounce back from a horrible 2009 debut when he leads the Brewers against the Cubs and Ryan Dempster (0-0, 3.00) in the finale of a three-game series between division rivals at Miller Park.After losing Friday’s series opener in the bottom of the ninth inning, the Cubs got two runs in the top of the ninth Saturday to rally for a 6-5 victory. Both Chicago and Milwaukee have alternated wins and losses in their first five games.Chicago is on runs of 24-11 on the road, 18-6 as a road chalk, 8-3 on Sunday and 4-0 when Dempster starts on Sunday. The Brewers are on hot streaks of 8-3 at home, 7-2 against the N.L. Central and 22-8 when Suppan starts against division rivals.Dempster was solid in his first start of the season, holding the Astros to two runs on six hits and three walks in six innings, but Chicago fell 3-2 in 10 innings on the road. The Cubs have lost five of Dempster’s last seven starts (playoffs included), even though he’s yielded three earned runs or fewer in six of those contests. Furthermore, Dempster has allowed four earned runs or fewer in 18 straight starts since the beginning of last July.Suppan lasted just four innings in Tuesday’s season-opener at San Francisco, allowing six runs (all earned) on six hits and a walk, losing 10-6. Going back to the start of September, Suppan has a 9.84 ERA in seven starts, with Milwaukee going 1-6. Last year at home, the veteran right-hander was 3-3 with a 4.36 ERA in 13 starts.Dempster went 4-0 with a 2.40 ERA in five starts against the Brewers last season, including 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA in two outings at Miller Park. For his career, he’s 8-2 with a 2.45 ERA in 35 appearances (13 starts) versus Milwaukee. Suppan is 6-6 with a 3.60 ERA in 19 career starts against Chicago, including 1-1 with a 6.60 ERA in three games last season.The over is 11-4-2 in the last 17 meetings between these rivals and 13-4-2 in the last 19 battles at Miller Park. Otherwise, though, the under is on streaks of 4-2 for Chicago overall, 5-2 for Chicago on the road, 10-2 for Chicago as a road favorite, 6-0 for Chicago on Sunday, 5-2 for Chicago when Dempster starts, 7-3 for Milwaukee overall, 4-1 for Milwaukee at home and 5-2-1 for Milwaukee on Sunday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (2-3) at L.A. Angels (2-3)
After hanging on for a victory over the Angels on Saturday, the Red Sox will hand the ball to ace Josh Beckett (1-0, 1.29 ERA) in the rubber match of a three-game series at Angel Stadium. Los Angeles is set to counter with Dustin Moseley (0-0, 4.50).Jason Bay socked two home runs, Mike Lowell contributed a solo shot and closer Jonathan Papelbon survived a shaky ninth inning as Boston prevailed 5-4 on Saturday to end a three-game slide. Additionally, the Red Sox snapped a nine-game regular-season losing streak to the Angels, winning for the first time in five tries in Anaheim.
Boston is 12-3 in its last 15 games against the A.L. West, but just 2-5 in its last seven against right-handed starting pitchers and 3-8 in its last 11 as a favorite. The Angels are on sterling runs of 24-12 against the A.L. East, 7-1 as an underdog, 5-0 as a home pup and 5-0 on Sunday.With Beckett on the mound, the Red Sox are on runs of 22-10 on the road and 20-7 as a road chalk, but they’re just 2-5 in his last seven outings overall, 2-5 in his last seven starts on Sunday, 1-4 in his last five against the A.L. West and 1-4 in his last five outings versus the Angels. Meanwhile, L.A. is 4-1 the last five times Moseley has taken the mound as a home underdog.Beckett was dominant in his season debut Tuesday, holding the Rays to one run on two hits and three walks while striking out 10 over seven innings en route to a 5-3 home victory. However, Beckett struggled on the road last year, going just 5-5 with a 5.65 ERA (compared with 7-5 with a 2.85 ERA at home),Moseley allowed just three runs on nine hits in his debut Tuesday against the A’s, but got a no-decision as Los Angeles lost 6-4 at home. It marked the first time since April 9, 2008 – a stretch of nine starts – that Moseley lasted at least six innings, but he has given up three earned runs or fewer in six of his last seven outings, including the last four in a row. The right-hander was 4-0 despite a bloated 5.65 ERA in 19 home appearances (four starts) in 2008.Beckett went 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA in three starts against the Angels last season, including one playoff outing. Prior to that, the veteran right-hander had gone 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA in his first five career starts against the Halos, with Boston winning four of those contests. Meanwhile, Moseley’s one start against Boston came in August 2007, and he got roughed up, allowing six runs (all earned) on 10 hits in 4 2/3 innings of a 9-6 loss. For Boston, the “under” is on streaks of 6-0-1 on Sunday, 4-0-1 against right-handed starters, 11-5-1 as a favorite, 6-1-1 with Beckett on the mound and 4-1 with Beckett working on the road. The under is also 36-17-5 in the Angels’ last 58 Sunday games, but the over is 6-2 in Moseley’s last eight home starts.
The Sports Advisors 4-12-09
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