I’m on a 9-6 run with free plays the last 15 days, despite Friday’s terrible call on the Rangers. We’ll make up for it Saturday as we head back to the diamond and take the Cardinals against Houston.
Wondering why St. Louis is a fairly hefty chalk in this game despite the fact it is facing Astros ace Roy Oswalt? Well, you won’t wonder after you see this: Redbirds righthander Adam Wainwright is a perfect 5-0 with a 2.32 ERA in 12 career appearances (six starts) against Houston. In those six starts – which have come over the past two seasons – Wainwright has held Houston to two runs or fewer five times, while giving up just three runs on the other occasion, and he’s posted a 2.14 ERA in those six contests.
Meanwhile, Oswalt just can’t seem to buy a break against St. Louis of late. Despite delivering 10 quality starts in a row against the Redbirds, the Astros have only managed to split those 10 games, including going 0-3 in Oswalt’s last three matchups vs. St. Louis, all one-run losses, and all in St. Louis.
Finally, even though it lost 6-4 to Pittsburgh on Opening Day with Wainwright on the bump, St. Louis is still 16-5 in the righthander’s last 21 home starts and 14-3 in his last 17 as a home favorite. Also, the host has dominated this N.L. Central rivalry, winning seven of the last nine clashes, including the Cardinals’ victory on Friday.
By all accounts, Wainwright – who stands 6-foot-7 – is poised for a breakout season in his third big-league campaign, and my money says he dominates the Astros once again today and gets enough of an offensive boost from sluggers Albert Pujols (.314 career average, 4 HRs against Oswalt), Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick to get this win.
Jeff Benton 4-11-09
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