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Ferringo 4-08-09
NOTE: I said yesterday that because of the way that most of these series are staggered we were going to have more plays on Tuesday and Wednesday than normal. And given our top start I think that it is worth it to press a bit and go for an early jugular. Again, I understand that this is excessive, AND I CAN ASSURE YOU IT WILL NOT BE LIKE THIS ALL YEAR - THAT IS A GUARANTEE. But I want to strike quickly and strike while the iron is hot. For example, at the end of yesterday's picks I said that I had leans on the Braves and the . That was two more winners that I posted. Heck, today I LOVE the Cardinals. But I had to cut it somewhere. Let's get after these early series, let's take advantage of some weaker early lines and let's see what we can come up with.
5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.5 Pittsburgh at St. Louis (8 p.m., Wednesday, April 8)
Note: This is our Total of the Week.
I actually got burned quite a bit by the Cardinals on totals last year. They have a great lineup but don't always produce. But the bottom line is that this is a really strong spot and this play probably should be graded a bit higher. Zach Duke is 5-14 with a 4.82 ERA over the last 365 days. He is 8-22 in his career on the road with a 4.58 ERA. He is 2-6 in April with a 5.32 ERA. He is 2-4 against the Cards in his career and is 0-3 with a 4.94 ERA at Busch Stadium. Do I need to go on? Duke had a decent Spring Training, but nothing to raise an eyebrow at. Todd Wellemeyer is 2-3 in April with a 4.72 ERA. He is 4-1 with a 3.72 ERA against the Pirates. Wellemeyer was lit up this spring, posting a 7.00 ERA and has not been sharp. Mix in a pair of lineups that have been swinging pretty good sticks, two below-average bullpens, and if we can get a tight zone, then we're in business here.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #902 Florida (-140) over Washington (Noon, Wednesday, April 8)
What has Washington done in the first two games to suggest that they are ready for this season to be any different or any better than last season? I am not a fan of Daniel Cabrera - at all - and I think that he's going to run into the same issues with inconsistency and ineffectiveness with the Nats. Basically he's a fastball-curveball guy that's facing a lineup full of fastball-curveball hitters. The Marlins usually struggle against top-end power pitchers or soft-tossers. Cabrera is right up there alley. He was just 2-11 in interleague games, so he clearly doesn't like facing N.L. lineups.
2-Unit Play. Take #904 Philadelphia (-105) over Atlanta (3 p.m., Wednesday, April 8)
Going to be really surprised if the Phillies get swept at home to start the year. The Braves threw their two best pitchers out there and have to feel a bit of a relief to get a series win over their rivals. But I'm not sure if they are going to go for the jugular here. They do have an off day so I expect the regulars to play for both teams. But I think that the motivation is all on the side of the Phillies. I'm not a big Joe Blanton guy. Not at all. But April has been one of his better months and I think that he has a good mojo working with the Phils. I'll dabble with him on a short number here.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #906 Arizona (-130) over Colorado (3:40 p.m., Wednesday, April 8)
It's Doug Davis at home. Period. Just like with our Brandon Webb play earlier this week, sometimes it is better to just keep it simple. Davis is 14-4 as a home favorite and has been a consistent moneymaker in Chase Field. All of the Arizona power is from the right side, so facing a lefty is a big benefit to them. I think that they are going to get this first home series against a team that they've played great against at home over the past few years. Again, short number is too good to pass up.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #908 Cincinnati (-110) over N.Y. Mets (7 p.m., Wednesday, April 8)
I like a nice, tight 3-2 game today and I think that the Reds will get it done behind Eddy Volquez. He was sensational last year at the start of the season. He has been dominating this spring. And over the past two seasons the Mets have really been neutralized by top tier right-handed starters. They kill lefties, but top-of-the-line righthanders really give them trouble. I think Volquez on the short line here is really a nice value.
1-Unit Play. Take #917 Detroit (+120) over Toronto (7 p.m., Wednesday, April 8)
Now, in a true chase I would have been betting 2.5 Units on the Tigers today. But after that pathetic display last night by Jim Leyland - leaving Brandon Lyon in for the ninth after he gave up four runs, including a go-ahead 3-run home run in the eighth inning AND THEN leaving Lyon in to walk the leadoff man in the ninth, give up another base hit, and eventually lose - let's me know that this is still a pathetic, last-place-bound Detroit team. We're "pot committed" to a certain extent here and I'm going to ride them out. But we will be betting against the Tigers A LOT this year.
1-Unit Play. Take #913 L.A. Dodgers (-160) over San Diego (10 p.m., Wednesday, April 8)
Note: Bump to 1.5 Units at -175 or less. I like the line movement in our direction.
I'm not a big Chad Billingsley guy. I know his numbers are great and everything, but I just don't feel it from him. However, the Dodgers are going to win today. They just faced two of the best hurlers in the N.L. in Jake Peavy and Chris Young, and now getting their licks in against Walter Silva is going to feel like B.P. I'm sure Silva will have a couple nice starts for the Dads this year. But Manny is going to be pissed and this Dodgers lineup is going to have a field day. I see an 8-4 game, with the Dodgers taking it down.
1-Unit Play. Take #928 Minnesota (-145) over Seattle (8 p.m., Wednesday, April 8)
Note: Bump to 1.5 Units at -155 or less.
Mojo. Had to be a deflating loss for the M's last night. And if they are going to be featuring Miggy Batista in a prominent bullpen role I'll go ahead and say they are going to lose 90 games again this year without breaking a sweat. Carlos Silva is 0-1 with a 20.25 in his two games against his former team, the Twins. He's a righty with a flat fastball and that's going to put him in the wheelhouse of all of those lefties for the Twins. This play should be rated higher.
Today's Totals
3-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 7.0 L.A. Dodgers at San Diego (10 p.m., Wednesday, April 8)
Note: I still recommend this play for 3 Units if you can only get 7.5. We're seeing at least 9 runs in this game. In fact, you can even feel free to bump this one up if you'd like to 3.5 Units. I think it's a great pick.
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.0 Oakland at L.A. Angels (10 p.m., Wednesday, April 8)
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.5 N.Y. Mets at Cincinnati (7 p.m., Wednesday, April 8)
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 10.0 Colorado at Arizona (3:40 p.m., Wednesday, April 8)
My writeups and sides will follow.
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