Robert Ferringo 4-07-09
Note: I know that today is quite a bit, and I assure you this isn't going to be the case all year. But Game 2 (Tuesdays and Saturdays) are always going to be the days on which we have the most selections going. This week the series' are staggered a bit so we will have a lot of picks on Tuesday and Wednesday. But again, this is a bit more than usual because A) we're hot and I want to press a bit as sort of a "heat check", and B) because I always like to take advantage of ripe early season lines. So, if you are not comfortable with this much action I would say go ahead and play my top two picks - Boston and the Detroit 'over'. But every single one of these picks fits into some manner of system that I rely on and we're going to go with it.
4-Unit Play. Take #974 Boston (-140) over Tampa Bay (4 p.m., Tuesday, April 7)
I love it that this number is dropping. I love it. I love that everyone is hopping back on the Rays. Let ‘em. And the fact that this game got pushed back a day is even better for us. Another day in the cage, so to speak, for the Sox. You think Boston wants to come out and make a statement in this game or what? Tampa Bay bounced them from the playoffs last year and did so to cap a bitter, bitter season series. But the bottom line is that – even last year when they were good – the D-Rays do not play well in Boston (4-6). Tampa Bay is just 11-40 in its last 51 games in Fenway and their hurler, James Shields, is 0-3 with a 10.15 ERA in his career throwing there. Shields is also just 2-8 in his last 10 games against the Rays and is 12-26 as an underdog. Mix in the fact that Boston has cruised in its last three home openers, that this is the type of big game in which Josh Beckett thrives, and the fact that Tampa is still without B.J. Upton, and I love this value.
4-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.5 Detroit at Toronto (7 p.m., Tuesday, April 7)
Wow. That was my first thought about the Toronto offense yesterday. Those guys looked pretty good. And I think that they can scratch out four or five runs against Ed Jackson and the teetering Detroit bullpen. But the main crux of this play relies on a couple things. First, we have Jerry Layne behind the dish. And Layne has one of the tightest strike zones in the Majors. Add on top of that the fact that Detroit slays left-handed pitching and that Toronto is trotting out David “I’m In Way Over My Head As a No. 2 Starter” Purcey and I like where this is heading. Purcey had some control issues this spring and his 1.54 spring ERA was a bit misleading. I think that Purcey is going to get rocked – with some support from Layne. Also, Jackson no longer has the benefit of that great Tampa defense. He pitches to contact and Detroit doesn’t field. That’s trouble. I like this one to settle around 8-5 and I like the Tigers to come out on top.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #960 St. Louis (-145) over Pittsburgh (8 p.m., Tuesday, April 7)
Technically, the system at work here calls for a runline play. But since it is early in the year and we have this number under 150 I'm just going to go after the win. The bottom line is that the Cardinals controlled that game yesterday and are the better team. They are going to get one of these games, so we're going to chase out on them and look for them NOT to get swept by the Pirates. Ian Snell is just
1.5-Unit Play. Take #965 Detroit (+105) over Toronto (7 p.m., Tuesday, April 7)
I said yesterday that we were going to work an underdog chase on the Tigers in this one. I see them taking one game in this series and we're going to be getting underdog odds on them so I feel the value is there. Over the last two years the Tigers have been one of the best hitting teams in the league against left-handed pitching and today they are facing a mediocre one. I think they get their licks in and in a game that sees a lot of runs that favors the Tigers and their lineup.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #963 Los Angeles Dodgers (-105) over San Diego (10 p.m., Tuesday, April 7)
If the Dodgers just put up four runs against Jake Peavy and earned a win at San Diego yesterday, what do you think they are going to do today? The Dodgers are simply a better team and they are going to lay it on yet again. This will be a low scoring affair. But the bottom line is that even if we lose we have already won this series because of our underdog score yesterday.
1-Unit Play. Take #957 Chicago Cubs (-110) over Houston (7 p.m., Tuesday, April 7)
It's the Cubs against a left-handed starter. I hate to mess with Wandy Rodriguez at home, where he dominates, but the bottom line is that the Cubs have been an exceptional road team over the last couple of years and they absolutely maul-left-handed pitching. They came out looking sharp yesterday and Alfonso Soriano has been swinging a good stick the last couple weeks. When he's hot they are nearly unbeatable.
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.5 Washington at Florida (7 p.m., Tuesday, April 7)
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 7.5 Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego (10 p.m., Tuesday, April 7)
1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 8.5 Atlanta at Philadelphia (7 p.m., Tuesday, April 7)
1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 9.0 Colorado at Arizona (7 p.m., Tuesday, April 7)
For those of you that aren't as familiar with my stylings, I don't normally do writeups for my totals. I have a couple systems that I keep very tightly guarded. The only times I usually do extended writeups is when it's a top play, like today's Detroit game. But I can assure you the same level of analysis goes into every single one of them.
That's it for today. I also like the Twins and the Braves
Last edited by InTheHole; 04-07-09 at 05:04 PM.
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