Guys, no NBA games today......Heres the big one....

MICHIGAN STATE +7½ (vs. North Carolina) - 9:15 pm ET (CBS) #601
Take Michigan State +7.5 for 4 Units
Michigan State is a dangerous underdog that is 31-6 SU this season with a fantastic 18-5 SU record versus teams ranked in the top 50, including 9-2 SU when facing a top 25 opponent after their back-to-back upset wins versus #1 seeds Louisville and Connecticut. There was nothing misleading about either win as the Spartans dominated both games.This strong record in big games is not a surprise as Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo remains one the best coaches in the nation. Izzo is 20-8 ATS (71%) as an underdog in neutral court games and his team now has the added advantage of playing in Detroit and teams playing in their home state are a long-term 60% ATS in the NCAA Tournament (over 200 game sample).Michigan State is a physical team that relies on strong defense and rebounding which is important against a North Carolina squad that gets 77% of their total points from two-point range, just like a Connecticut squad that got 82% of their points down low this season.
North Carolina did dominate the earlier meeting on December 3rd, but the Spartans were without a key player in the paint as their starting center, Goran Suton, did not play. Suton is the team's best big man and currently leads the squad in rebounding (8.3 rpg) and is second in blocks (14) and scoring (10.2 ppg). Suton has been particularly strong during the NCAA Tournament with 19 points and 10 rebounds versus Louisville and 20 points with 9 rebounds versus Kansas. It was also a tough scheduling situation for Michigan State in the earlier meeting as the Spartans had just played a three-game tournament in Florida versus Maryland, Oklahoma State, and Wichita State. Michigan State was a tired team when they returned to Michigan to play their fourth game in seven days versus a rested Tar Heel squad. Kalin Lucas and Durrell Summers met at Red Lobster in Lansing two days after that December drubbing and vowed to never let it happen again the Spartans went on a perfect 11-0 SU run afterwards. Michigan State is now a much better team, but the oddsmakers are still forced to inflate tonight's line as UNC is 5-0 ATS in the tournament so far, but tournament favorites off 4+ ATS wins in row are just 45-77 ATS and my power ratings only make UNC a 5-point favorite tonight, so this line is too high.


-Bob O'Conner
www.SportsBob.com
Excellence in Sports Handicapping