InsidetheLines 4/6
CHAMPIONSHIP GAME (at Detroit)
(2) Michigan State (31-6, 21-12-1 ATS) vs. (1) North Carolina (32-4, 16-19 ATS)
Michigan State pulled the upset against top-seeded Connecticut in the Final Four on Saturday, building an 11-point second half lead then holding off a late Huskies surge to claim an 82-73 victory as a 4½-point underdog at Ford Field. The Spartans have been scorching hot lately, going 11-1 SU and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 starts, including 5-0 SU and ATS in the Big Dance. Also, they’ve now eliminated consecutive No. 1 seeds, following the upset of Louisville in the Elite Eight with Saturday’s stunner over UConn.
North Carolina was in full control against third-seeded Villanova on Saturday, racing out to a 17-point first-half edge. The Tar Heels let the Wildcats get back within five early in the second half before another surge pushed the lead back to 10, and they led by double digits the rest of the way in an 83-69 rout as a seven-point chalk. Carolina is on a 5-0 SU and ATS roll in this year’s Tournament, winning by double digits in every game.
This is a rematch of a game played back on Dec. 6, also at Ford Field, as the Tar Heels pummeled Michigan State 98-63 as a 10-point favorite. North Carolina outshot the Spartans 48 percent to 34.8 percent and forced 21 Michigan State turnovers. However, the Spartans were without big man Goran Suton (10 points, 7.8 rebounds per game average), who sat out with an injury.
These teams have met six times since 1998, with North Carolina going 4-2 SU and ATS, and the winner has cashed in all six meetings. In addition to their 35-point win at Ford Field in December, the Tar Heels’ other three victories over the past 11 years against Michigan State have come in the NCAA Tournament, all of them double-digit routs. That includes an 87-71 win as a 4½-point chalk in the 2005 Final Four.
Michigan State has averaged 72.8 ppg and allowed 63.6 ppg so far in the Tournament, and North Carolina has beaten its opponents by a whopping average of nearly 21 ppg, netting 87.6 ppg while yielding just 66.8. Both teams are going after their second titles of the decade, with Michigan State winning it all in 2000 and Carolina taking the crown in 2005.
Michigan State is 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS on neutral floors this season, outscoring opponents by a couple buckets per game in averaging 71.9 points and allowing 67.2. North Carolina, meanwhile, is 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in eight neutral-court starts, piling up 87.4 ppg and giving up 71.0 ppg.
Guard Kalin Lucas leads a balanced Michigan State scoring attack at 14.7 ppg, and he fueled the Spartans with 21 points and five assists in the win over UConn. Forward Raymar Morgan (10.2 ppg, 5.2 rpg) nearly got a double-double against the Huskies, with 18 points and nine rebounds, and he also had five steals.
All-American forward Tyler Hansbrough paces Carolina at 20.8 ppg and 8.2 rpg, and four more Tar Heels are averaging double digits, including star guard Ty Lawson (16.5 ppg), who also chips in 6.5 assists per game. Hansbrough had a double-double of 18 points and 11 boards against Villanova, and Lawson had game-highs of 22 points and eight assists.
The Spartans are on a plethora of positive pointspread streaks, including 7-0 in non-conference contests, 6-1 after a SU win, 5-1 after a spread-cover, 5-1 as an underdog, 5-1 as a neutral-site pup and a sterling 22-8-1 in their last 31 NCAA Tournament tilts. The only negative for Michigan State: a 1-4 ATS mark in its last five starts against the ACC, including this year’s blowout loss to Carolina.
The Tar Heels entered the Big Dance on a 2-9 ATS freefall (9-2 SU), but their trends are nothing but positive now, as they are on ATS upswings of 39-15 outside the ACC, 8-0 as a Tourney chalk of seven to 12½ points and 4-0 against the Big Ten. Plus, in the NCAAs, Carolina is on a 9-1 SU and ATS spree, with all nine wins coming by double digits from the favorite’s role. The lone loss was last year’s 84-66 Final Four setback to eventual champion Kansas as a 2½-point chalk.
The under for Michigan State is on tears of 11-5 overall, 9-4 after a SU win, 8-3 after an ATS victory, 39-19-1 with the Spartans getting points, 10-5 with the Spartans as a neutral-court ‘dog and 5-2 against the ACC. Likewise, the under for North Carolina is on tears of 5-1 overall (all at neutral sites and all with the Tar Heels favored), 5-1 in the Tournament and 6-1 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Finally, the December meeting between these two fell a couple baskets short of the hefty 166½-point posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTH CAROLINA and UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
L.A. Dodgers (0-0) at San Diego (0-0)
The reigning N.L. West champion Dodgers open the season on the road at Petco Park against the Padres, who finished with the majors’ third-worst record last season. Los Angeles will hand the ball to right-hander Hiroki Kuroda (9-10, 3.73 ERA in 2008) against San Diego ace Jake Peavy (10-11, 2.85).
Los Angeles finished the regular season by winning 10 of its last 15 games to edge Arizona by two games for the division crown. The Dodgers then stunned the Central Division champion Cubs with a three-game playoff sweep before falling to the eventual World Series champion Phillies, losing the best-of-7 National League Championship Series 4-1.
San Diego went 7-11 in its last 18 starts of 2008, fairly indicative of the entire season, as the Padres finished 11 games under .500 at Petco Park (35-46) and far worse on the road (28-53). San Diego’s offense mustered just 637 runs all season, for an average of 3.93 per game, while giving up 764 runs for an average of nearly a run higher at 4.72 per game.
Los Angeles went 11-7 against San Diego last year, including 5-4 at Petco Park, and the Dodgers won four of the last five clashes.
Kuroda had an average rookie season, but he was sterling in his two playoff starts, going 2-0 with a 1.46 ERA in 12 1/3 innings. In the series-clinching Game 3 victory over the Cubs, he threw 6 1/3 innings of shutout ball, scattering six hits with two walks in a 3-1 victory. Then in Game 3 against the Phillies, he led the Dodgers to their lone NLCS win, allowing two runs on five hits and a walk in six innings in a 7-2 rout. Los Angeles went 6-1 in Kuroda’s last seven starts, with the right-hander going 4-0 with two no-decisions.
Peavy was solid on the mound last year but just couldn’t get much offensive support. He went 5-5 in his last 10 starts, but the Pads scored three runs or less in seven of those games, including shutout losses of 2-0 to San Francisco and 1-0 to Milwaukee. On the bright side, Peavy beat the Dodgers in his last regular-season start, allowing three runs on four hits and four walks in five innings of a 7-5 road victory.
Kuroda went 3-8 with a 3.78 ERA in 17 road outings last year and 2-1 with a 5.66 ERA in four starts against the Padres. Peavy was 5-5 despite a remarkable 1.74 ERA in 14 starts at Petco in 2008, and he’s owned the Dodgers in his career with a 13-1 record and a 2.32 ERA in 22 starts.
The Dodgers are 16-7 in their last 23 division contests, but they won just one of their last five games during the playoffs, and with Kuroda taking the ball, they are on skids of 2-5 on the road and 1-7 with the 34-year-old as a road underdog. The Padres went just 1-5 in their last six home games last year, but with Peavy pitching, they are on a 16-5 run against the Dodgers, including 8-0 in his last eight outings against L.A. at home, and they’re 11-5 in the right-hander’s last 16 Monday starts..
The over for Los Angeles is on streaks of 4-1 against right-handers, 4-1-1 in series openers, 5-0 with Kuroda starting a series opener and 5-2-1 in Kuroda’s last eight starts overall, but the under is 11-4-1 in Kuroda’s last 16 road starts. The over for San Diego is on rolls of 12-5 overall, 6-2 at home and 5-0 in series openers, but with Peavy starting, the under is on stretches of 10-3-1 overall and 38-18-4 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO
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