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Date Sport Game Pick View 4/6/2009 MLB Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres 7:05 PM ET San Diego Padres -130 Detail 4/6/2009 NCAAB Michigan State at North Carolina 9:15 PM ET under 155 Detail

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PICK: San Diego Padres Your pick will be graded at: -130 WSEX EXPERT: Ben Burns REASON FOR PICK: I'm laying the price with SAN DIEGO. The Padres should enjoy a pitching advantage in this one. Peavy has been one of the best in the business in recent years and he had a stellar 1.74 ERA and 0.969 WHIP in 14 home starts last season. While the Padres were just 7-7 in those games, note that Peavy averaged a very healthy seven innings per start while recording 99 K's to just 24 walks.

Additionally, note that the Padres were 2-0 in Peavy's two home starts against the Dodgers last season. They won those games by a combined score of 13-1. Peavy gave up just 1 run in 15 combined innings, recording 12 K's to just a single walk. Looking back further and we find Peavy at an outstanding 13-1 against the Dodgers. The Padres were a perfect 9-0 the last nine of those games and 14-1 the last 15.

While Peavy struggled at the World Baseball classic, he was terrific in his limited spring training innings. In fact, he didn't allow an earned run in 14 innings in the Cactus League. Peavy said that he'll be ready to throw 100+ pitches and was quoted as saying: "I guess I'm as close to ready as I can possibly be. I've got the confidence going that I can give the team a chance to win." While he's still not likely to get a ton of run support this season, note that the Padres should be somewhat improved offensively this year. You may recall the Padres' ace shutting down Roy Oswalt and the Astros on Opening Day last year. Peavy pitched seven innings of 3-hit ball and added a pair of RBIs, en route to a 4-0 San Diego victory.

Kuroda had a fairly solid first year in the States for the Dodgers, going 9-10 with a respectable 3.73 ERA, during the regular season. However, a closer look reveals that he was just 3-8 on the road with the Dodgers going just 6-11 (-6.2) in those games. He also had a poor 5.66 ERA (1.646 wHIP) in four starts vs. the Padres, thanks to getting rocked in the 9-0 loss vs. Peavy. While Peavy went six shutout innings in that game, Kuroda lasted only 2 1/3 innings, giving up six runs, five of them earned. Including that result, the Dodgers are just 31-45 (-11) the last few seasons, when playing a road game with an over/under line of seven or less. Look for Peavy to get the better of Kuroda and for the Padres to start the season with a victory. *6 Personal Favorite

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PICK: under Your pick will be graded at: 155 SPORTSBETTING EXPERT: Ben Burns REASON FOR PICK: I'm playing on Michigan State and North Carolina to finish UNDER the total. Most were expecting a relatively low-scoring game between Michigan State and UConn and a much higher one between North Carolina and Villanova. After all, the closing over/under line for the Tar Heels' game was nearly 30 points higher than the closing o/u line for the Spartans game.

However, the Spartans' game saw more points than expected and actually finished with a higher combined score than the Tar Heels' win over the Wildcats. Michigan State won by a score of 82-73 while UNC won by a score of 83-69.

The primary reason for the Spartans' Final 4 game being so high-scoring was that Coach Izzo decided to push the pace against the Huskies. Obviously, that strategy worked very well. However, that doesn't mean that the Spartans are strictly a running team. In their previous game, Izzo employed a much different strategy. The result was a 64-52 win over Louisville with the final combined score staying below the total by roughly 20 points. Facing the high-scoring Tar Heels, a team which already blew them out earlier in the year, I expect Izzo and co. to try and slow down the pace, as much as possible.

Note that the UNDER is a profitable 11-5 the last 16 Michigan State games. Additionally, we find the UNDER at 18-7-1 the last 26 times that the Spartans were listed as underdogs and 10-3 the last 13 times that they played a game with an over/under line in the 150s.

We know that the Tar Heels can score plenty of points. However, they've also proven to be more than capable of getting it done on the defensive side of the ball. After holding the Sooners to a mere 60 points in the Elite 8, the Tar Heels limited Villanova to just 69 on Saturday. Both those games stayed below the number, bringing the UNDER to 5-1 the last six UNC games.

With only one day off in between games, note that the Tar Heels have seen the UNDER go 6-1 the last seven times that they played a game with one or less day's rest in between games. Additionally, with the pointspread currently hovering in the "touchdown" range, note that the UNDER is now a profitable 7-2 the last nine times that the Tar Heels were listed as neutral court (while in Detroit, Ford Field is still technically a neutral court) favorites in the 6.5 to 9 point range.

Looking back to last year's Finals and we find that the total opened at 144 and closed at 147.5. Yet, the game saw much better defense than most were expecting. In fact, the game went to Overtime and still stayed below the total. The final score was 75-68 but 17 points were scored in the overtime period. The final score at the end of regulation was only 63-63. I successfully played on the 'under' in that game and I look for this year's Final to also prove lower-scoring than most are expecting. *Total of the Month