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Guy was plus 300 units last year...he is the best
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.5 Atlanta at Philadelphia (8 p.m., Sunday, April 5)
1.5-Unit Play. Take Atlanta (+120) over Philadelphia (8 p.m., Sunday, April 5)
We’ve found a good situation. Not a great one, but a very strong one, for our opening selection of the 2009 season. Now, this play is not necessarily on the Braves to win tonight, if that makes any sense. I do know that they’ve been playing better baseball this Spring than the Phillies have and I also know that I like Derek Lowe in a pressure spot getting plus-money; especially against a very inconsistent Brett Myers. So this bet is the first in a series play, so to speak, on the Braves, because I am quite certain that they aren’t getting swept to start the year. No way. So we get on the Braves in this game and then I intend to chase out – with scaled bets – on Atlanta for the next two games. We win one of the three games (hey, I’d prefer if it were tonight’s game!) we turn a profit on that series and we’re off and running.
Now, I do think the Braves stand a strong chance of winning tonight. So do the oddsmakers because the defending World Series champions are only -130 at home. Yeah, Philly owned the Braves last year, going 14-4 against them. But Philadelphia was 9-0 in Atlanta. You know what that means? It means the Phils were just 5-4 against Atlanta in Philadelphia last season. Also, the Braves were 2-0 against Myers last season and he sported a 10.38 ERA against Atlanta. Derek Lowe has been no Opening Day gem, but I like him in this spot.
But backing the Braves in this series is a bit more than that. Since they were embarrassed at home by the Phillies last year they have some extra motivation and some revenge going into this game. Also, the Braves lost in the opening night game last year - marking the second straight year that the underdog has won opening night - and the last time that a World Series champion hosted the opener (2007) the visiting underdog, with revenge, took the game. Atlanta has been turning heads all spring with their sharp play and I think that they come out focused and ready to put a damper on the party in Philadelphia.
Again, I like the spot. We get this one to stay ‘under’ – and with the pitchers on the hill, the cold weather, a swirling wind, two good bullpens, and some first-game jitters, I think it’s a solid play as well – we turn a profit. We get the Braves to win, we turn a profit. We get a Braves win and an ‘Under’ and we get a profit. If the Braves get bombed, well, it’s the first day of a l-o-o-o-n-g season, and we’ll be right back on Atlanta on Tuesday!
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Originally Posted by jcygts6
