L.A. CLIPPERS +14½ (at Denver) - 9:05 pm ET #813 The Clippers have battled injuries all season, but they are a better team with point guard Baron Davis in the lineup and their recent 0-3 ATS run has been a product three close pointspread losses by 1½ points at San Antonio, by 2 points at Houston, and by 2 points at home versus New Orleans on Wednesday. My power ratings favor the Nuggets by just 13½ points tonight, so the line is too high and Denver might let down after a big national TV home win versus Utah on Thursday, especially since the Nuggets have already beaten the Clippers in all three meetings this season and have a road game on deck tomorrow. Despite the 3-0 SU mark, all three wins versus the Clippers have been by 13 points or less this season and the Nuggets fit a negative 53-82 ATS situation which plays against double-digit favorites that won the previous meeting.The Nuggets enter tonight on a 10-1 SU run, but they have only won two of those eleven games by more than 13 points. Denver might also be without Kenyon Martin who is questionable after leaving Thursday's game with a cartilage strain in his left rib cage.
MICHIGAN STATE +4½ (vs. Connecticut) - 6:05 pm ET (CBS) #815 Take Michigan State +4.5 FOR 3 UNITS Michigan State is a dangerous underdog that is 30-6 SU this season with a fantastic 17-5 SU record versus teams ranked in my power rating's top 50, including 8-2 SU when facing a top 25 opponent. This upset potential was evident last Sunday when the Spartans dominated the #1 overall seed Louisville and won easily 64-52 as a 6½-point underdog. This strong record in big games is not a surprise as Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo remains one the best coaches in the nation. Izzo is 19-8 ATS (70%) as an underdog in neutral court games and his team now has the added advantage of playing in Detroit and teams playing in their home state are a long-term 60% ATS in the NCAA Tournament (over 200 game sample). Michigan State is a physical team that relies on strong defense and rebounding which is important against a Connecticut squad that gets 82% of their total points from two-point range. Big East foe Pittsburgh plays a similar physical style down low and UConn struggled this season versus Pitt, losing both games outright 76-68 at home and 70-60 on the road. Connecticut also fits a negative 44-76 ATS situation tonight which plays against tournament favorites off 4+ ATS wins in row.
VILLANOVA vs. NORTH CAROLINA (-7, 160½) - 8:45 pm ET (CBS) #817 Take Villanova +7 for 3 Units Villanova qualifies as a defensive underdog tonight as the Wildcats allow just 66.9 points per game this season and only 40.3% FG (versus opponents that average 71.8 ppg and 44.1%). Meanwhile, North Carolina has permitted 41.3% FG and 72.1 points per game (versus opponents that average 72.1 ppg). North Carolina does have a size edge down low, but Villanova has the better overall backcourt and guard play has historically been the difference in Final Four games. Big underdogs have also been a profitable play and teams getting +7 points or more are currently 8-1 ATS in the Final Four. The oddsmakers have inflated this line due to the Tar Heels' strong showings versus Gonzaga and Oklahoma as my power ratings favor UNC by only 5 points tonight. North Carolina also fits a negative 44-76 ATS situation tonight which plays against tournament favorites off 4+ ATS wins in row.
Sportsbob 4-4-09
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