Greg Shaker 4-04-09
GREG SHAKER
FINAL FOUR TOTAL OF THE YEAR
NCAAB:
Spartans at Huskies - Over 133.5 (Total of Year) -110
Unit Value: 4
Game Date: 4/4/2009
Note: I have been pouring over this game all night and have come to a large decision that we are going to see a lot of points scored in this contest in Detroit this evening. I know that I am not on the popular opinion for this one, and in fact have changed mine overnight. There are two major reasons why I like the OVER and why I like it as much as I do. The first one is the fact that even though these squads both play very good defense, they also have very, very good offensive efficiency. In fact, they are the #23 and #12 best teams in the NCAA this year. In addition, we might think that Michigan State likes to walk the court, but they are within the Top 40% of all Top Tempo Squads, and they have shown me all year, that they will run the court when given the chance. While they have played 2 consecutive Unders the last 2 times on the court, they have have done so while leading throughout the contest. That means of course, that second half scoring has been less than average as the Spartans milked the clock throughout. Certainly in their last contest verses Louisville, we saw a Cardinal Squad that got and shot a lot of good looks on the court, but was unable to hit them with any accuracy. The frustration level got worse and worse for Pitino's Bunch and the Spartans coasted and walked to an easy win. Is that going to happen today? Is UConn going to have shooting concerns? Probably not. Is UConn going to be manhandled by Michigan State? Probably not. The Huskies have been lights out during this Tourney and they do have plenty of offensive talent to put some baskets in the net. They are going to work very hard to up-pace this one and as long as they are in the game, they will have some success doing so.
The second, and most important reason why I like this game to go OVER is the rebounding skills and overall style of play by each squad. These two might very well be the best of the best in grabbing balls off the rim. The Huskies have an amazing +11.3 RPG verses their opponents this year and even a more amazing +14 RPG over the last 5 played. The Spartans have an amazing +10.4 RPG Edge over their opponents as well. These stats are amazing. Have I mentioned that yet? What does that mean for us? It means that we are going to see some physical activity around the basket and it means that we are going to see many Spartans and Huskies at the Free Throw Stripe making points as the Clock sits still. Verses teams like USC and Ohio State, Michigan State contests saw 57 and 46 Shots from this line. UConn shot 32 verses Mizzu, 27 verses Texas A&M and in the crazy Syracuse Contest we saw 93 by both teams. There are plenty of other examples but hopefully you get the idea. This game is going to be about who controls the boards and who can win the physical battle in the paint. That is going to give us what we want many more times than not. I would play this one up to 139 but it is not going anywhere near that number and is currently dropping.
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