Big Play Friday Doc Sports NBA 4-03-09
4-Unit Play #503 Take San Antonio/Indiana UNDER 200 ½ (7 p.m. EST, Friday)
San Antonio is the No. 3 scoring defense in the league and only the No. 24 scoring offense. We feel they will try and make the Pacers play their game tonight. In the one meeting this season the Spurs did just that, holding the Pacers to just 81 points and 37% shooting from the field. The Pacers have had a bit of an upswing in scoring lately but they have faced teams like Chicago and Washington that play no defense. However, all of their recent games against decent defensive clubs have resulted in low scoring totals. The oddsmakers have been overadjusting the totals for the Pacers lately and the result has been great for under bettors. The under is 8-2 in their last 10 overall and 11-1 in their last 12 home games. The Spurs have been very consistent recently defensively and have allowed under 90 PPG in their last 10 games.
2-Unit Play #509 Take Portland -5 Over Oklahoma City (8 p.m. EST, Friday)
The Thunder have been one of the best bets in the NBA this season and we have made a lot of profit off them but this team has been in a slump lately and tonight they face a Portland team that has been extremely hot, cashing in seven of their last eight games. This team has played well lately both on the road and at home. OKC has cashed just twice in their last seven games and they have failed to cover in three-straight home games. The Blazers have been playing great on both sides of the ball and their recent numbers really don’t justify this low of a spread. We had this game capped at 7 ½ so we think there is some nice value tonight.
3-Unit Play #519 Take Houston/LA Lakers UNDER 196 (10:30 p.m. EST, Friday)
The Lakers have been playing great defense lately and have held their last six opponents to an average of under 90 PPG. This team came on last year at this time of the season and they are gearing up for the playoffs, where playing strong defense is the key to winning a championship. The Lakers and the Lakers OVER are two of the most public plays on the board whenever they lace up the sneakers. The oddsmakers obviously have no need to adjust these numbers, even though 14 of the last 17 for LA have gone under the posted total – the public still likes to think of what this team has done all season instead of what they are doing now. The Rockets, of course, are a Top 7 defensive club and they have also allowed less than 90 PPG, on average, in their last six games. The under is 7-1 in the Rockets last eight road games.
8-Unit NBA Totals Game of the Year – #517 Take New Orleans/Golden State UNDER 218 (10:30 p.m. EST, Friday)
Loving this line tonight and this is a game we had circled on our calendar for a week. We felt they would put a line this high here and we think this one is close to 10 points over what it should be. New Orleans is really playing solid defense lately. Besides a wacky game against Sacramento when they seemingly took a night off from defense, this team has allowed only two teams to score more than 100 in 18 games and the highest point total for an opponent during that time was 103 points. And the Hornets have played some pretty solid offensive clubs during that span, including these same Warriors. In that last game the Hornets pretty much dominated the Warriors defensively the whole game. They managed only 89 points in that game, and that included a 31-point fourth quarter. The total in that game reached only 188. So what do the oddsmakers do? Give us a line higher than the number for that game! The Warriors have had some high scoring games lately but they haven’t really been playing any defensive teams. We feel like New Orleans will try to make them play their game again and that this one will get over 200 but well under the posted number. The Warriors also have some injuries tonight to deal with and we just don’t see this game as a track meet. The New Orleans under has been one of the best bets in the NBA lately as it has cashed in nine of the last 11 and in eight of the last 10 games as a favorite. The highest point total in the last four meetings between these clubs was 211 and the other three got nowhere close to this number.
Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports
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