Jeff Benton

For Thursday’s freebie, we’ll head to the Mile High City and lay the small price with the Nuggets against the Jazz.

This line makes absolutely zero sense to me. You’ve got Utah playing its third game in four nights, this being its first since laying a total egg at division rival Portland on Tuesday (125-104 loss as a six-point underdog). The Jazz have failed to cover in four straight games overall, and they’ve lost five of their last six road games both SU and ATS (the only win and cover came in a seven-point victory at Oklahoma City.

On the other hand, Denver has seized control of the Northwest Division thanks to a current run that has seen the team win four in a row and nine of the last 10. That includes six consecutive home wins for the Nuggets. Granted, they cashed in exactly half of those six home wins, but that’s because they were laying really big numbers. The scorebook shows that Denver has won its last six home games by point margins of 7, 13, 11, 25, 13 and 13 points.

Also, going back to a 117-97 rout of these same Jazz on Jan. 25, the Nuggets are 5-2 at home against playoff-caliber competition, with wins over the aforementioned Jazz, as well as the Blazers, Lakers, Hawks and Spurs (only Houston and Boston clipped Denver in Mile High).

If that’s not enough, the home team has won the last five meetings between these teams, including all three this season … with Denver going 3-0 ATS in those contests. In fact, the favorite is 21-10-1 ATS in the last 32 Nuggets-Jazz clashes! Throw in the fact that Utah has now failed to cover in nine straight games as a road underdog and 10 of 11 as a ‘dog period, and I can’t pass up Chauncey, Carmelo, K-Mart and the boys at this cheap price.

4♦ DENV



Matt Rivers

For Thursday lay the points with the 76ers.

It's a steep price for sure but I just cannot envision anything but a blowout tonight in the City of Brotherly Love.

Milwaukee has been dismal ever since losing both Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut to injuries and besides Richard Jefferson really do not have that much talent on the squad. The Bucks were a surprise first half team as they played above themselves with their pieces in the lineup but that is a thing of the past as these guys are out and the team is pretty much just playing out the string right now. Sure they just pounded the Nets in New Jersey but that was Jefferson going back to the Meadowlands and the team rallying behind their new leader in that one victory against his former team.

Philadelphia should be the fresher team as they did not play last night unlike Milwaukee who just faced Kobe and the Lakers. In their last game the 76ers outclassed the playoff bound Atlanta Hawks in a double digit win and cover. With Andre Iguodala, Andre Miller, Samuel Dalembert, Lou Williams and others I just do not see another less today against a very poor squad in these Bucks.

If there was ever a game that could end 101-79 this is that game!


Tony Weston

Today's Selection:

Of course we came through last night as the Hornets do just enough to give us another Comp Play winner. That puts us at 8-1 our last 9 Comp Plays and 16-5 our last 21 freebies.

We’re doing it again, but we’re switching gears as we’re headed to the college hardwood. We’re going out to Madison Square Garden tonight as we’re taking the Over in the Baylor-Penn State matchup in some junior tournament action.

The number for this matchup is floating around 138 points, depending on where you’re playing it. But considering the way both these teams have been playing lately, they’ll blow right past that.

Consider that coming into this game the Over is on a 3-1 run in Baylor’s last four games and is 4-2 its last six, while Penn State has seen the Over come in 5 of its last 8 contests.

Also, the Over has come in 4 of Baylor’s last 5 non-conference games and it has come in 5 of the Nittany Lions’ last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600.

Keep in mind, also, that over their last 5 games the Nittany Lions have totaled, on average, 141.6 points, while the Bears have totaled, on average, 142.6 points in that same five-game stretch. For the season, Baylor has totaled, on average 146.1 points per game.

These teams are scoring well over 140 points per and will do so again tonight. Take the over as it comes through easily in this matchup.

3♦ BAYLOR-PENN STATE OVER


Bobby Maxwell

Utah at DENVER -4

The Nuggets are trying to hold on and take the second spot in the Western Conference playoffs, therefore giving them homecourt advantage against everybody except the Lakers - crucial for their success in the playoffs. Tonight they get a struggling Jazz squad so we'll lay the chalk and play the home team.

Utah got pounded by Portland 125-104 Tuesday night as a six-point underdog, its fourth straight ATS loss and they are just 2-2 SU in the last four and sit in third place in the Northwest Division, one game behind the Blazers and 2 1/2 behind the Nuggets.

Denver got a 111-104 win Tuesday at home over the Knicks, but came up short as a 12 1/2-point favorite, ending the Nuggets' four-game ATS streak. They are 9-1 SU and 6-4 ATS in the last 10 games and they are averaging 111 points a game during their four-game winning streak. At home, Denver has rattled off six straight wins.

The Jazz are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games and 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six on the road.

The Nuggets have gotten the cash in all three games this season between these two and the favorite is on a huge 21-10-1 ATS streak in this rivalry. Denver is a much smarter team with Chauncey running the show and controlling the tempo. They can score and their defense is not horrible like it was last season.

Utah is on ATS slides of 1-6 after a non-cover, 1-8 against winning teams and 2-5 against Western Conference squads. Denver is 6-1 ATS in its last seven against winning teams. Play the Nuggets at home to get this one by 10.

3♦ DENVER