[clownpuncher]

SPORTS ADVISORS

NIT
(at New York)

Baylor (24-14, 13-17 ATS) vs. Penn State (26-11, 17-12-1 ATS)

Resurgent Baylor rolled over No. 1 seed San Diego State 76-62 in Tuesday’s NIT semifinals at Madison Square Garden, easily cashing as a one-point chalk for its fourth straight win and third straight cover. After ending the regular season on a 2-10 SU and 1-11 ATS nosedive, the Bears have gone 7-1 SU and ATS in the postseason, with the lone loss coming in the Big 12 title game to Missouri, a team that advanced to the NCAA Tournament’s Elite Eight.

Baylor has scored at least 74 points in each of its NIT starts, while holding its opponents to an average of 68 points per game, and the Bears are now 5-1 SU and ATS at neutral sites this season. Over the last five games, Baylor is shooting a solid 52.2 percent from the floor, while allowing just 42.4 percent shooting. Against San Diego State, the Bears outshot the Aztecs 52 percent to 41.8 percent and went 11-for-22 from three-point range.

Penn State, one of the last teams left out of the NCAA Tournament, built up a 19-point lead against Notre Dame in Tuesday’s other NIT semifinal, then held on for a 67-59 victory as a five-point underdog. The Nittany Lions matched Baylor with their fourth consecutive SU win and third straight spread-cover. Penn State is averaging 74.5 ppg in the NIT, nearly eight points above its season average of 66.9, while allowing 66.5 ppg.

The Nittany Lions are 3-2 SU and ATS on the year at neutral sites, and the SU winner has cashed in each of those contests. In its last five starts, Penn State is shooting 45.9 percent and allowing 43.7 percent shooting from the floor

The Bears are on ATS runs of 6-2 overall, 14-3 at neutral sites, 5-1 as a neutral-site chalk, 5-1 after a victory and 5-2 outside the Big 12, but they are still just 2-7 ATS in their last nine starts from the favorite’s role. The Nittany Lions are on a 9-3 ATS tear in their last 12 non-conference contests and are 4-1 ATS in their last five Thursday outings, but they are also on a 6-17-1 ATS slide as a pup of less than seven points.

For Baylor, the under is on streaks of 12-4-1 overall and 5-2-1 as a favorite, but the over has hit in four of the Bears’ last five non-conference starts, including three of four in the NIT. For Penn State, the over is on runs of 5-1 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, 6-2 with the Nittany Lions catching less than seven points and 5-2 after a SU win, but the under is 4-1 in their last five on neutral courts.

ATS ADVANTAGE: BAYLOR


NBA

Milwaukee (32-44, 38-36-2 ATS) at Philadelphia (38-35, 33-38-2 ATS)

The freefalling Bucks look to keep their slim playoff hopes alive when they travel to the Wachovia Center to face the 76ers.

Milwaukee ended a five-game SU and ATS dive with Monday’s 107-78 road whipping of New Jersey catching three points, salvaging a four-game road trip. The Bucks then returned home to face the Lakers last night and lost 104-98, but covered as a seven-point ‘dog. Milwaukee, which is four games out of the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, is in a 5-15 SU slump and a 3-11 ATS drought, with its last nine defeats coming by an average of 13.6 points per game, and eight of its last 12 opponents have scored in triple figures.

Philadelphia, sitting sixth in the Eastern playoff standings, rolled over Atlanta 98-85 Tuesday night as a two-point chalk, ending a two-game SU and three-game ATS skid. After a four-game stretch in which they scored more than 110 points, the Sixers have tallied between 95 and 98 points in their last four contests. However, the defense has surrendered 100 points or more in six of the last eight games.

Philadelphia is on a 4-0 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, most recently posting a 110-105 victory as a 7½-point road pup in January. Going back further, the Sixers are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 clashes.

The Bucks are on a bundle of ATS slides, including 3-11 overall, 1-4 against winning teams, 1-5 on the highway, 2-8 against the Eastern Conference and 1-4 going on no rest. The 76ers are also on nothing but negative ATS streaks, including 3-7 at the Wachovia Center, 1-5 against losing teams, 1-4-1 against Central Division foes and 3-9-1 on Thursday.

For Milwaukee, the under is on runs of 7-2 overall, 14-5 against winning teams and 5-2 against the Atlantic Division. In addition, the under is 37-18-2 ATS in Philadelphia’s last 57 home starts, and in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in four of the last five meetings in Philly. However, the Sixers have topped the total in six of their last eight overall.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA


Utah (46-28, 37-37 ATS) at Denver (49-26, 40-34-1 ATS)

The surging Nuggets aim to keep their hold on second place in a tight Western Conference race when they host the Northwest Division rival Jazz at the Pepsi Center.

Denver dropped New York 111-104 Tuesday night for its fourth consecutive SU win, but it fell short as a healthy 12½-point home chalk, ending a four-game ATS run. The Nuggets have topped the century mark in each of their last 10 games, going 9-1 SU and 6-4 ATS. During their four-game winning streak, they’re averaging 111 ppg while giving up 102.3 ppg. Denver is outscoring visitors by an average of seven points per game (107-100), and it comes into this contest on a six-game home winning streak (3-3 ATS).

Utah got blasted at Portland 125-104 Tuesday night as a six-point pup for its fourth straight pointspread setback (2-2 SU), dropping the Jazz into third place in the Northwest Division, one game behind the Blazers and 2½ behind Denver. Utah has followed up a 12-game winning streak by splitting its last 10 games, going just 2-8 ATS in that span. Also, the Jazz are 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six on the highway, where they average 101.8 ppg and give up 105.3. Jerry Sloan’s team has scored more than 100 points in 15 of its last 19 games, but has given up at least 100 in eight of the last 12.

Denver has cashed in all three meetings in this rivalry this season, though Utah has won two of those contests outright and is on a 5-1 SU run overall (3-3 ATS) versus the Nuggets. The favorite is on a 21-10-1 ATS streak in this divisional clash and the host has won five consecutive meetings (3-2 ATS).

The Nuggets are on ATS upswings of 4-1 overall, 4-0 against the Western Conference, 6-1 against winning teams and 12-5 in Thursday outings. The Jazz are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 starts after a day off, but along with their current ATS skids of 0-4 overall and 1-5 on the road, they are on pointspread plunges of 0-4 after a SU loss, 1-6 after an ATS setback, 1-8 against winning teams and 2-5 against the West.

The under for Denver is on runs of 4-1 overall and 8-0 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, and the under for Utah is on tears of 14-6 overall, 6-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 7-2 against Western Conference foes and 7-3 going on one day’s rest. Finally, the total has stayed low in the last four meetings in this rivalry.

ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER and UNDER

[shantystar]

denver.