New Jersey Nets vs Detroit Pistons April 1st 7:30pm Take New Jersey -1.5 for 5 Units
The Nets could not catch a better team coming in as Detroit is coming off a game against hated rival Cleveland. A win over the Cavaliers would have made this spot even better but the Pistons fought hard last night and lost by just six points in Cleveland in what was a very physical game so there will no doubt be some effects from that. Detroit needs to keep winning to avoid missing the playoffs as its grip on seventh place in the Eastern Conference is getting weaker as it is ahead of ninth place Charlotte by just two games. Losses have been contagious for the Pistons as they are 15-22 on the season following a loss and that includes a 14-23 record against the number. Detroit had won seven straight meetings in this series before the Nets took the first one this season at home back in November. The Pistons came back to win the second meeting in Detroit so that sets up a slight revenge spot here as well. The home team has won and covered five of the last six meetings including both this season. Prior to that loss to Milwaukee, the Nets were 6-6 in their previous 12 home games which may not seem like much success but it isn't bad when looking at the competition. Five of those losses came against The Lakers, Cavaliers, Celtics, Hornets and Spurs. Wins include Miami, Chicago, Philadelphia and Denver, all of which are currently sitting in the playoff picture so while losing to the elite, it has been able to defeat the marginally good teams and that is certainly where Detroit falls. The Pistons are 2-5 in their last seven road games with those wins coming against hapless Washington and against Toronto in overtime. The Nets are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games in the second half of the season when playing against a team with a losing record with a winning percentage greater than .400. Detroit put up just 73 points last night and it is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 75 points or fewer. The Pistons are also 4-9 this season in the second of back-to-back games including 1-3 when both games have been on the road.
Washington Wizards vs Memphis Grizzlies April 1st 8:05pm Play Over 201 for 5 Unit These are two of the worst teams in the league as they stand a combined 36-112 SU (.243) and both have absolutely nothing to play for during the final three weeks of the regular season. This usually leads to more offense and less defense as the players look to pad their individual offensive stats. Tonight's game fits a solid 53-19 Over situation which predicts high-scoring games when two Class-D teams meet. Memphis has struggled offensively recently when facing quality opponents as they scored just 66 points versus Portland and just 82, 87, and 84 points versus Miami, Boston, and New Orleans. However, the Grizzlies have performed much better offensively when facing losing teams as they have recently scored 114 points versus Golden State and 113 points versus Sacramento.This trend should continue tonight as the Wizards have allowed at least 101 points or more and 47% FG or higher in seven of their past nine games. The Wizards are coming off a 239 total point game versus Indiana on Sunday, while the Grizzlies had a 223 total point game versus Golden State on Monday.
LA Lakers vs Milwaukee April 1st 8:05pm Take LA Lakers -7 for 3 Units The Lakers have clinched the #1 seed in the Western Conference and they have letdown in their past two games with losses at Atlanta and Charlotte, but Los Angeles should regain their focus tonight as they now fit a solid 58-32 ATS road favorite bounce-back situation which plays on quality teams coming off a SU loss. Milwaukee is coming off a rare win on Monday versus an ice-cold New Jersey squad, but the Bucks are still in terrible current form with a 2-11 ATS record in their past 13 games. Milwaukee has struggled with injuries all season and they are still without their top two players as Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut are both out. The offense has struggled as Milwaukee has shot 39.5% FG or worse in five of their past seven games.
Oregon State vs Utep April 1st 10:00pm Take Utep -8.5 for 4 Units
We have an edge in the CBI game today. For starters, UTEP is very good at getting revenge against teams they had previously lost to. This is the Game 2 of the CBI Championship of course. Game 1 ended with Oregon State winning 75-69. UTEP will have a decent sized crowd on hand in this game, this is the only game going on in the nation for college basketball as the CBI Championship takes center stage once again and in UTEP's fairness, they were screwed a bit at Oregon State. After all, for a team that lost by 6 points, UTEP only shot 9 free throws (made 8/9 = 88.9%). Oregon State attempted 26 free throws (made 15/26 = 57.7%). UTEP is a 72% FT shooting team and Oregon State is a about 65% on the year. UTEP is the same team that beat UAB at home 70-52 and got revenge from an earlier season loss, this is the same team that beat Texas Tech at home by 18, St. Mary's on neutral floor by 13 and New Mexico on the road by 13. Oregon State struggles against high scoring teams on the road as they are not able to control the pace anymore like they do at home and I think this will hurt them in this contest. The only reason why this team did not break 70 points in Oregon State was the questionable "reffing". This team scored 79 at Nevada when they won outright, 75 against Northeastern and 81 against Richmond. I expect UTEP to have at least 20 free throw attempts in this game (compared to just 9 last game), I expect UTEP to shoot better frome the field and better than 5-18 (27.8%) from 3 point land on their hoem court, while I expect Oregon State to shoot 5-10 less free throws, shoot much worse from the field than the (60.5%) they shot at home and 8-15 (53.3%) fromt 3 point land they shot as well. In short, there are several factors that work in favor of UTEP today including revenge, better FG %, better 3 point %, more free throws at the line, a higher scoring and pace to the game, the home crowd, while Oregon State shoots worse in FG%, 3 point % and has fewer attempts from the line. THere is no guarantee in sports wagering, but this is a solid wager as any as Oregon State lost 69-79 to an Oregon team that plays at a higher pace and who is ranked top 180 - UTEP is ranked top 80. The Beavers are a Road Underdog to a tune of 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games as a Dog of 7 to 12 Points and the Miners are 6-2 ATS as a favorite of 7 to 12.5 points.
Sportsbob 4-1-09
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