Michigan State vs Louisville March 29th 2:20PM Take Michigan State +6.5 for 3 Units & Under 138 for 2 Units Louisville has benefited from an easy schedule of opponents so far in the NCAA tournament as they faced the play-in game winner Morehead State, and then faced Siena and Arizona in the next two rounds. Today's game will be the first real test for the Cardinals as Michigan State is a dangerous underdog that was a fantastic 16-5 SU this season versus teams ranked top 50 in my power ratings, including 7-2 SU when facing a top 25 opponent. This strong record in big games is not a surprise as Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo remains one the best coaches in the nation. Izzo is 18-8 ATS (69%) as an underdog in neutral court games and his team has performed well so far this tournament with impressive wins versus USC and Kansas. We also get line value as my power ratings favor Louisville by just 4½ points today. The Cardinals rely heavily on their pressure defense, but Michigan State takes solid care of the basketball and they have averaged just 11.8 turnovers in their past five games. The Spartans also qualify as a defensive underdog as they allow just 63.0 points per game and only 41.5% FG (versus opponents that allow 68.0 ppg and 45.0%). Louisville takes 38% of their shots from three-point range and Michigan State has a strong three-point defense that allows just 31.5% (versus opponents that average 35.7%). The Spartans also hold a substantial edge from the free throw line where they average 70% FT this season, compared to a Louisville squad that shoots just 64% FT (ranked 301st out of 344 teams in the nation).
Oklahoma vs North Carolina March 29th 5:05pm Play Under 164 for 3 units and Oklahoma +7 for 2 Units North Carolina is coming off three straight high-scoring games and the oddsmakers are once again forced to inflate the total as my power ratings predict just 160 total points today and the Tar Heels are 3-1 Under in their past four games with only one of their past six games totaling more than 159 total points. North Carolina gets 77% of their total points from two-point range and they will now be facing a strong Oklahoma interior defense that ranks 20th in the nation and allows just 42.6% from two-point range this season (national average is 48.0%). Oklahoma also relies on their scoring down low with power forward Blake Griffin and North Carolina has a strong interior defense that allows just 44.3% from two-point range and ranks 39th in the nation. This game features one of the best matchups of the season with Tyler Hansbrough versus Blake Griffin down low and each All-American should prevent the other from scoring easy baskets. Tournament games are also a strong 36-12 Under in this price range (160 or higher) when teams enter off back-to-back SU wins. OU should not be counted out here. All of the scoring models actually show this game to be very close....look for a competitive game.
Sportsbob 3-29-09
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