Oklahoma (+7) vs. North Carolina, at Memphis By Chris Jordan, Featured Handicapper Did you get the feeling after Blake Griffin showed Syracuse how to actually the slam the basketball, since one of its own missed at the Orange end of the court, that the rest of the world is also missing something? Maybe Oklahoma is more than Griffin, who bullied Syracuse around for 30 points and 14 rebounds, while Tony Crocker contributed with a career-high 28 points.
And let’s be real, the Sooners were pulling away from the pride of northern New York midway through the first half, while Griffin punctuated the win with the now infamous noggin-knocking slam dunk.
Bring on the Tar Heels!
I don’t know if the Sooners are going to be dancing with Villanova and U Conn next week, not to mention today’s early winner – which is my 400♦ Line Mistake Winner #3 in a Row – but I do know this is going to be one helluva basketball game. One that I wouldn’t be surprised goes down to the wire.
North Carolina isn’t known for playing defense, mainly because it can score enough to compete better offensively than Carolina’s Bobcats, and that might bite them against a Sooners team that has plenty of mettle to combine with Griffin’s potency, such as guards Willie Warren and Austin Johnson, who will be spot on for this regional final.
Fact is, Oklahoma has solved issues that caused a late-season slide, and is on a 4-1 ATS run in its last five tournament games – a perfect 3-0 this year. As for the Heels, well, they’re mired in ATS slides of 2-7 laying wood in this range, 2-8 off an ATS win and a putrid 0-5 on their last five Sundays.
1♦ OKLAHOMA
Oklahoma vs. North Carolina (-7) By Jeff Benton, Featured Handicapper For Sunday’s free play, we’ll head to the Elite Eight and play the North Carolina-Oklahoma contest UNDER the total.
I admit right off the bat that this is a total contrarian play. I know that all the money is going to come pouring in on the “over” in this matchup, and it’s easy to see why. First off, the public always plays these marquee games “over” the total. Secondly, the “over” hit in both of yesterday’s Elite Eight games and the “over” is 5-1 in the Tournament since Friday. Thirdly, both the Sooners and Tar Heels have been scoring at will in the Big Dance, and both topped the total in their victories on Friday.
But you see, this is the exact reason why the “under” is so attractive today. We all know that when the public lines up on one side of a particular play that the other side is almost always the way to go. And because the “over” is going to take so much action today, the oddsmakers had to inflate this line.
When you get down to it, it’s extremely difficult for a 40-minute college game to be played in the mid-160s or higher. That means, in essence, that both teams have to score well into the 80s. That ain’t easy. In fact, when you consider that only two of Oklahoma’s last 14 games have gone over 160 points and that North Carolina hadn’t exceeded 160 in five straight games before Friday’s win over Gonzaga, this basically is a very strong “value” play. Take this one UNDER the total.
ATSEdge.com 3-29-09
Reply With Quote