Jeff Scott
3 UNIIT PLAY
Louisville/ Michigan State Over 138:
Yes both of these teams play very good defense, but both teams can score as well. The Cardinals have averaged 85.3 ppg in the tourney and 79.5 ppg since their blowout loss to the Irish. The Cardinal have averaged 80.2 ppg in their last 5and hve shot 51% ovr that stretch, plus they have put up 70+ points in 10 of their last 13. Ok that's a little over half of what we need. Now if we can get 70 out of the Spartans, then this will be a cake walk. Michigan State has put up 72 ppg on the year, including 71.6 ppg on neutral floors and 72.6 ppg in the Tourney. Two other factors here should be the fact that this will be a physical game and much like last night's Pitt/ Louisville game it will lead to many FT attemps, plus this should be a tight game and that means one of these teams will be fouled alot down the stretch, giving us some cheap late points. I see this one being played in the high 140's.


2 UNIT PLAY
Louisville -6.5 over Michigan State:
I know I said above that this should be a close game and I still think it will for the most part, but I also see the Cardinals depth and pressure defense wearing down the Spartans and pulling away in the final 4 minutes of the game. State is off a couple of close physical games vs Kansas and USC, while the Cardinals got to rest many of their players in the blowout win over Arizona, so they shoud be the fresher team here.