Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

Pittsbaurgh/ Villanova Under 140.5: The Under is 6-1 in Wildcats last 7 games following a SU win of more than 20 points, while the Under is 6-1 in Panthers last 7 neutral site games as a favorite. Both teams have been playing excellent defense this year as the Cats have allowed 66.7 ppg on the year (145th) and they are 37th in FG% defense (40.1%), while the Panthers have allowed just 64.1 ppg overall (81st) and they are 44th in defensive FG% ((40.4%). In their last 5 games the Panthers have allowed just 65.4 ppg on 37.8%, while Villanova has allowed just 66.7 ppg on 37.8% shooting in their last 5 games. Villanova's neutral games have averaged 141.8 ppg, but Pitts neutral games have averaged 131.8 ppg. We also note that the last 6 in this series has gone Under the total , with an average of 124.7 ppg being scored, while not one of those games put up more than 127 points. Both teams can score, but this is still a Big East game and that means a tough, physical battle with not much running up an down the floor. I see this one at 130 or less.



3 UNIT PLAY

UConn -5.5 over Missouri: The Tigers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 90 points in their previous game, while teh Huskies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games. The Tigers are off an impressive win vs Memphis, but today the Task gets a whole lot tougher. The Huskies have been extremely impressive in the Tourney as they have won their games by an average of 30 ppg. Their defense has been tough of last as they have allowed 57.6 ppg in the 3 games, and two of those teams (A&M and Chatt) are pretty good offensive squads. For the year the Huskies have allowed just 63.4 ppg (67th) and they are 2nd in the nation in defensive FG% (37.4%). Today's task will not be easy as the Tigers have averaged 81.6 ppg on the year (4th) and they shoot 47.4% from the field (27th). A weakness for this team is their reboundiing, as the Huskies have a sizeable edge (pun intened) in that department. Another edge the Huskies do have is on defense. I already went through their defensive stats above, so now let's take a look at the Tigers for a moment. Missouri comes in allowing 67.3 ppg overall (157th), plus they have allowed 72.4 ppg when they have played away from home this year. Now even though they held Cornell to just 59 points in the opening round of the Tourney, they have comeback to allow 85 ppg on 45% shooting in their next 2 games. The Tigers have been playing at a high intensity so far, but it runs out today as Thabeet and company take them out behind the woodshed for a nice 10+ poiunt win.



2 UNIT PLAY

UConn/ Missouri Over 150: The Over is 20-6 in Tigers last 26 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5 and 9-1 in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games, while the Over is 14-3 in Huskies last 17 neutral site games as a favorite and 5-1 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Both teams like to push the ball as the Huskies average 78.4 ppg overall, while the Tigers have put up 80.9 ppg this year. UConn has averaged 89 ppg in the tourney so far, while the Tigers have put up 87.7 ppg in their 3 games. I see this one at about 160, with the Huskies taking it 87-73.



1 UNIT PLAY

Pittsburgh -2 over Villanova: The Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 20 points, while the Panthers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. Big East. The Panthers will just have too much defense in this one to keep the hot Cats from moving on. Pittsburgh by 5+ in a low scoring game tonight.