[GGPLAYER]

Syracuse vs Oklahoma March 27th 7:25pm
Take Syracuse +1 for 5 Units
Oklahoma as close to a one man show as there is in this tournament. If Blake Griffin is neutralized, they are done. The Orange have a huge edge here, as Johnny Flynn and Eric Devendorf are very under-rated guards. They are significantly better than Oklahoma's guards. Oklahoma's guards are turnover prone, as well. The Sooners had 19 turnovers against Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship game, 21 turnovers against Missouri in the regular season, and 15 turnovers against Morgan State in the 1st round. However, I feel that the biggest advantage in this game is the size and depth of Syracuse's big men. They will be able to continually challenge Blake Griffin on the inside while not having to worry about foul trouble. Arinze Onuaku and Rick Jackson are big bodies and excellent forwards who will be able to at least slow down Griffin without worrying about foul trouble. One last important key to look at is the two games involving Big East teams against Big 12 teams in the NCAA tournament 2nd round. Both Syracuse and Oklahoma are being priced at their level of play from the regular season. However, Syracuse has vastly improved, while Oklahoma has shown some weaknesses. The Orange have much better overall team play with an excellent inside/outside combination. They also have better three point shooters and guards who can make tough shots at the end of the game. Having guards who can make shots during critical moments is one of the most important factors when handicapping these tough tournament games. Syracuse also has better three point shooters. The Orange are playing their best basketball of the season at just the right time, while the Sooners are over-rated, especially against the best teams in the country.

Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nuggets March 27th 8:30pm
Take Dallas -4 for 4 Units
Dallas is in a excellent revenge position here. Don't think "revenge" matters....well Dallas is 6-1 when put in this situation at home. Denver's super center Nene will likely miss tonights game again due to his two fgame suspension. This gives Dallas a huge edge inside and will make things much easier to control. Dallas has won 26 of their last 30 home games and with Nowitzki continuing to produce night in and night out with huge support from Wright and Kidd, it is very likely this one will be a blow out.

Kansas vs Michigan State March 27th 9:35 pm
Take Kansas +1.5 for 4 Units
These teams actually met earlier this season and Michigan State won that game easily 75-62 at home on January 10th; however the result should be different tonight. Kansas is the defending national champions, but they lost many key players from last year's squad and are one of the youngest teams in the nation. They are extremely talented and have improved as the season has progressed, so the non-conference loss 2½ months ago is a bit misleading, especially since Kansas shot just 5-for-20 (25%) from three-point range and only 17-for-28 (61%) from the free throw line. Kansas qualifies in a solid 85-48 ATS revenge situation tonight and my power ratings favor Kansas outright by 1 point, so there is also line value. The Jayhawks match up well in this game as they get 75% of their points from two-point range and Michigan State's defensive weakness is down low. The Spartans rank 40th in the nation in three-point defense, but they are only 130th in two-point defense. Kansas has a much stronger defense down low as they allow just 40.8% from two-point range which ranks 5th in the nation out of 344 Division-1 teams. This strong interior defense is especially important against Michigan State as the Spartans get 79% of their total points from two-point range. Tonight's game is being played in a football stadium, so the sight lines will make three-point shooting difficult for both clubs, therefore the team that wins the battle down low should win the game and Kansas holds that edge both offensively and defensively.

Gonzaga vs North Carolina March 27th 10:00pm
Take Gonzaga +9.5 for 4 Units
This is simply too many points to pass up. This morning, the overwhelming majority of bettors took the Tarheels and the books are struggling to balance their risk, and in the process have given us a real value. Sure North Carolina is royalty in college hoops, but Gonzaga is definately no slouch and has not been a 10 point do to anyone all year. The were undefeated in their own conference and played extremely well during the post season. As far as raw shooting numbers, the Bulldogs have the edge in offensive and defensive shooting, both regular and from long range. Those variances are even more pronounced over the last five games where Gonzaga also has the advantage in free throw shooting and assist/turnover ratio margin. The argument will be made that this is all due to strength of schedules and the opposition each team has played but the schedules are not off by that much to make such a major difference. We have seen it numerous times in the past that the Bulldogs are in fact capable of not only playing with, but beating the so called elite teams outside their conference. Gonzaga is one of a select few teams that comes close to North Carolina in experience, height and skill. Look for the zags to hang tough in this one and go for the upset of all upsets.



-Bob O'Conner
www.SportsBob.com
Excellence in Sports Handicapping