Louisville, the Tournament’s top overall seed, is in the Sweet 16 for the second straight year after edging a pesky Siena squad on Sunday, winning 79-72 but failing to cover as a 12-point favorite. The Cardinals, who got 24 points and 15 rebounds from Terrence Williams to beat the Saints, are riding a 12-game winning streak (8-4 ATS).Arizona pulled away late to beat Cleveland State 71-57 on Sunday and easily cash as a 2½-point favorite. The Wildcats had four players score in double figures, including Nic Wise who had 21 points and eight assists to go along with his 29 points in Arizona’s 84-71 opening-round win over Utah a week ago. The ‘Cats have gone 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four but some doubted whether or not they belonged in the Big Dance after they closed the Pac-10 season 1-5 (3-3 ATS).Rick Pitino’s Cardinals reached the regional final last season, falling to North Carolina in their bid for the Final Four. Pitino owns a 37-12 SU Tournament record while coaching Providence, Kentucky and Louisville. Arizona is playing in the NCAA Tournament for the 25th consecutive season, the longest such streak in the nation. However, the Wildcats didn’t get out of the opening round the last two years and haven’t been in the Sweet 16 since 2005.These teams squared off in December 2006 in Madison Square Garden in New York with Arizona getting a 72-65 victory as 3½-point favorites.The Wildcats are on ATS runs of 11-4 overall, 19-9 in neutral-site contests, 8-2 in non-conference action, 8-2 in NCAA Tournament games and 4-1 as a Tourney ‘dog. Louisville is 0-4 ATS in its last four non-conference games, but it’s on positive ATS streaks of 16-7 overall and 6-2-1 as a Tourney favorite.
For Arizona, the over is on streaks of 11-4 overall, 6-2 in neutral-site games, 5-1 in non-conference action, 6-0 as a Tourney ‘dog and 5-1-1 against Big East teams. The Cardinals are on “under” streaks of 13-6-1 in non-conference games, 5-2 at neutral sites and 6-1 on Friday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA
(3) Kansas (27-7, 20-7-1 ATS)
vs. (2) Michigan State (28-6, 18-12-1 ATS)
Michigan State held off USC 74-69 in the second round of the Big Dance on Sunday, narrowly cashing as a four-point favorite as it won for the eight time in its last nine outings (6-3 ATS). The Spartans, who took down Robert Morris 77-62 in the opening round, got 18 points from Travis Walton in the victory over the Trojans. Going back to the regular-season finale, Michigan State is on a 4-1 ATS roll.Kansas, the defending national champs, delivered a beating to Dayton in second-round action Sunday, cruising 60-43 as an eight-point favorite. The Jayhawks got 25 points and seven rebounds from Sherron Collins and a triple-double from Cole Aldrich (13 points, 20 rebounds, 10 blocks) to take care of the Flyers. They improved to 8-3 SU in their last 11 (8-2-1 ATS) and 7-1 ATS in their last eight Big Dance contests. Michigan State got steamrolled in the Sweet 16 as season ago at the hands of Memphis, losing 92-74 as 5½-point ‘dogs. Under coach Tom Izzo, Michigan State is 29-10 SU in the Tournament, reaching four Final Fours, seven Sweet 16s and winning one national championship (2000).These two teams squared off back in January with Michigan State getting a 75-62 home win as a six-point chalk. They’ve met three times in the last 10 years with Michigan State going 2-1 SU (3-0 ATS).Kansas is 0-7 ATS in its last seven against Big Ten teams, but other than that it is on a plethora of red-hot ATS streaks that include 26-8-1 overall, 15-6 in non-conference action, 8-3 in neutral-site games, 11-3 as a ‘dog, 4-0 in Tourney games and 10-3-1 after a spread-cover. Michigan State is on a host of positive pointspread runs, including 3-1 overall, 10-4-1 in neutral-site games, 15-3-1 as a Tournament favorite, 6-0 against the Big 12 and 18-9-1 in the Big Dance.The Jayhawks are on “under” streaks of 13-3 after a straight-up win, 9-1 in the Tournament, 8-2 in neutral-site games, 8-3 after a spread-cover and 5-2 as a ‘dog. For the Spartans, the under is on runs of 9-4 overall, 8-3 as a favorite, 7-3 after a straight-up win and 6-2 after a spread-cover. Also, this year’s clash at Michigan State stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
SOUTH REGIONAL
(at Memphis, Tenn.)
(4) Gonzaga (28-5, 15-15 ATS)
vs. (1) North Carolina (30-4, 13-19-0 ATS)
Gonzaga made it 11 straight wins (5-5-1 ATS) with Saturday’s 83-81 last-second win over Western Kentucky but came nowhere near covering as an 11-point favorite. All five of the Zags’ starters scored in double digits, led by Matt Bouldin’s 20 points and eight rebounds. The Bulldogs improved to 8-1 SU (5-4 ATS) in neutral-site games and 20-1 SU in their last 21 overall, with the only setback being 68-50 home loss to Memphis. Since that defeat, Gonzaga has scored more than 70 points in 10 of 11 contests.North Carolina struggled early against LSU on Saturday but pulled away in the second half to secure an 84-70 second-round victory, failing to cover as a 12½-point favorite. ACC player of the year Ty Lawson, returning from a toe injury that forced him to sit out three games, led the second-half surge by scoring 21 of his 23 points after the break and he dished out six. The Tar Heels covered for just the third time in their last 10 games, all from the favorite’s role, and they’ve cashed in consecutive games for the first time since a 3-0 ATS stretch from late November to early December.North Carolina, playing in the Big Dance for the 41st time, is pursuing its second straight Final Four berth. Last year, the Heels won their first four NCAA starts SU and ATS, including a 68-47 rout of Washington State as an eight-point favorite in the Sweet 16.The Zags are in their 12th NCAA Tournament, shaking off one-and-done performances in each of their past two NCAA appearances. The last time Gonzaga made it to the Sweet 16 was in 2006, when it suffered a last-second 73-71 loss to UCLA as a 3½-point underdog.
These schools last met in November 2006 in Madison Square Garden with Gonzaga scoring an 82-74 victory as a 7½-point underdog.The Bulldogs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 matchups with ACC teams and 9-4 ATS in their last 14 neutral-site games as a pup, but otherwise they are on pointspread slides of 1-7 in non-conference action, 0-4 in the Big Dance, 5-14-1 on Friday and 4-11 against teams with winning records. North Carolina is on ATS slides 9-17 overall (3-7 last 10), 5-17 after a straight-up win and 1-8 after a spread-cover, but the ‘Heels are on positive ATS runs of 36-15 in non-conference action, 8-3 on neutral courts and 6-1 in Tournament games. Gonzaga has topped the total in eight of 10 overall, 23 of 31 as a ‘dog, 35 of 51 after a non-cover, six of seven in the Big Dance and five of seven non-conference games. The Tar Heels are on “under” streaks of 3-0 overall, 5-2 in neutral-site games, 4-1 in the Big Dance (2-0 this year) and 4-1 as a favorite.
Syracuse’s late-season surge continued with Sunday’s 78-67 second-round win over Arizona State, easily cashing as a 2½-point favorite. Eric Devendorf went 5-for-11 from three-point range and finished with 21 points for the Orange, who won for the ninth time in their last 10 games (SU and ATS), with the only loss coming to Louisville in the Big East Tournament title game.Oklahoma led wire-to-wire against Michigan on Saturday, getting a 73-63 win and cover as a 7½-point chalk. The Sooners got a huge 33-point, 17-rebound performance from superstar Blake Griffin as they won for just the fourth time in their last eight contests (3-5 ATS). Oklahoma held the Wolverines to just 39.3 percent shooting from the floor after limiting Morgan State to 28.6 percent shooting in the opening-round win.These teams met in the Regional Finals in 2003 with Syracuse getting a 63-47 victory as a three-point pup en route to the winning it all for coach Jim Boeheim. Oklahoma is in its 26th NCAA Tournament and has reached the Sweet 16 after getting drubbed in the second round last year, losing 78-48 to Louisville catching seven points.Syracuse is back in the tourney for the first time since 2006, when it followed up a run to the Big East tournament title by getting bounced in the first round by Texas A&M. The Orange, who are 40-24 in 25 previous Tournament appearances under Boeheim, last made it to the Sweet 16 when they won the national championship in 2004.Syracuse is on ATS runs of 9-1 overall, 7-3 in the Big Dance, 9-3 against Big 12 opposition, 5-1 on a neutral court, 7-1 after a spread-cover and 7-2 on Friday. Oklahoma is 4-1 ATS in its last five Friday contests, but otherwise it is on ATS slides of 1-4 against the Big East, 9-19 in neutral-site games and 2-5 against teams with a winning record.The Orange are on “over” streaks of 6-1 overall, 19-7 after a straight-up win, 8-1 in neutral-site games, 4-0 as a ‘dog and 7-0 as a neutral-site ‘dog. For the Sooners, the over is on runs of 10-4 as a favorite, 12-5-1 in non-conference games, 4-1-1 in the Big Dance, 5-1-1 against Big East teams and 9-3 after a spread-cover.
Sports Advisors 3-27-09
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