1.5-Unit Play. Take #876 North Carolina (-8.5) over Gonzaga (10 p.m., Friday, March 27)
Look, I like Gonzaga. They’re a nice little squad. But they aren’t going to be able to hang with the Tar Heels. Because when it comes right down to it, the Bulldogs are just a really good mid-major. They’re not a BCS team and they don’t have BCS talent. And although everyone wants to jump on the Bulldogs bandwagon, they aren’t a Cinderella anymore and they aren’t sneaking up on anyone.
This year UNC is 0-5 ATS as a favorite of less than 10 points. However, three of those games were without Ty Lawson and the other two were on the road in conference. Last year UNC was 11-5 ATS as a favorite of less than 10 points per game, so it’s not a full line indicator. North Carolina is 36-15 ATS in nonconference games, 8-3 ATS in neutral site games and 6-1 ATS in the NCAA Tournament. Gonzaga is just 1-7 ATS in nonconference games and 0-4 ATS in its last four tournament games. The Bulldogs looked awful against Akron and weren’t much better against Western Kentucky.
As far as matchups go, Gonzaga doesn’t have anyone to guard Tyler Hansbrough. They don’t. If Josh Heytvelt tries to guard Hansbrough he’s going to get into foul trouble and then Gonzaga is really screwed. I love Heytvelt, but he’s a soft four, not a center. The only other recourse Mark Few will have would be 7-5 Will Foster, but he averages about seven minutes per game and he can’t be counted on to stop a First Team All-American. And on top of that, UNC has Deon Thompson, Ed Davis, and Tyler Zeller to contribute quality minutes in the post.
So we’ve established that Gonzaga won’t stop UNC down low. That leaves the matchup of Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington and Danny Green against Jeremy Pargo, Matt Bouldin, and Micah Downs. I’ll go ahead and give UNC the check mark there. North Carolina is healthy, they have had a few days to prepare and work Lawson back into the flow, they have a major experience advantage, and they are used to playing a high level of basketball at this level. I think that it’s easy to get suckered in by the points. But when UNC is on they are 15 points better than all but about 12-15 teams in the country. Gonzaga isn’t one of those teams.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #877 Syracuse (+1) over Oklahoma (7:30 p.m., Thursday, March 27)
If I’ve said it once, I’ve said it 1,000 times: the NCAA Tournament is about guard play. And right now the Orange have the better guards. They have played as well as any team in the country over the last three weeks and they are really peaking at the right time. If this game turns into an up-and-down affair, and I think it will, then I think that has to favor the Orange. I understand that Blake Griffin is a dominator. But Syracuse’s 2-3 zone has neutralized great big men before. And with all the talk about OU’s guards and if they are up to the task, I think that they will be easily baited into jacking up threes. Austin Johnson is a bit banged up and I don’t see him staying with Johnny Flynn. And if the Orange shoot the ball nearly as well as they have over the last three weeks then they are going to be nearly impossible to stop. Blake Griffin dominated the Big 12 this year. But other than Cole Aldrich and some Texas big men, where are the quality post players in that league? Nebraska? Kansas State? Oklahoma State? Baylor? All of those teams run three- and four-guard sets with no big men. Syracuse has three quality post players and ultra-strong Paul Harris. That gives them 20 fouls and some guys to throw the ball into in order to keep the Griffin boys honest on defense. Further, just like Memphis, you can't point to the top teams that Oklahoma has beaten this year. Syracuse beat Kansas in Kansas City and they beat Memphis in Memphis. OU lost at Arkansas. I think that's significant and I think that the focused, determined Orange team (the one that has been ridiculously snubbed from the past two tournaments) is going to stay hot and advance here.
1-Unit Play. Take #877 Syracuse (+6) over Oklahoma (7:30 p.m.) AND Take #876 North Carolina (-3.5) over Gonzaga (10 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. Take #876 North Carolina (-3.5) over Gonzaga (10 p.m.) AND Take #872 Louisville (-4) over Arizona (7 p.m.)
In The Hole who do you like tonight? I see you all over this site and I really should have listened to you last night about Memphis. I just jointed this site 2 days ago and stumbled upon Anothy Redd's picks. Thought I would be up big right now but I guess I have caught him when he is flattening out. Cost me a lot of money the past two nights. I think I read that you really like Ferringo and few other's picks. Any recommendations? Right now I like Lou -9.5, Kan +1, SU +1 and UNC -8.
Ferringo 3-27-09
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