Malinsky 4* free play
GAME: Milwaukee Bucks @ Orlando Magic Mar 27, 2009 7:00PM
SPORT: National Basketball Assoc.
PICK: under
Offered at: 198
REASON FOR PICK: 4* #854 ORLANDO/MILWAUKEE Under
In getting that clutch win over Boston on this court Wednesday night, a victory that has the Magic a step closer to the #2 spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs, they continue to show that they have the talent and maturity to be real factors in the post-season. And in another way, to use one of the emerging phrases of this millennium, they “Get It”.
By that later phrase we mean that Stan Van Gundy and his team are developing an understanding for what it is going to take to keep playing into June. It means grinding out wins right now by not extending the pace more than is necessary, and also about getting seriously down and dirty on defense. They are focusing on the latter so well that they are now #2 in the NBA on our best set of defensive ratings, and finishing at #1 in that category is within their grasp. So where do we best put this into play? By looking for Under opportunities in games in which they can control; in other words, when favored at home. And they are gearing it up just the right way – in six such March settings they are 5-1 to the Under, with those games finishing a collective 71.5 points below the projections, or nearly 12 full points per game. And for the full season they are 5-2 to the Under when favored in double figures, the only games going Over in that span being unavoidable routs of the Kings back in the third game of the season when pace management was not an issue at all, and a shredding of the injury-riddled Clippers in early February. Now they get a chance to face an opponent that they are capable of locking down, having just done that on the road last week, and having had Thursday to prepare, and with nothing on deck until Monday, we can count on them to do just that.
It was a 106-80 Orlando rout in Milwaukee back on March 18th, when the Bucks only scored more than 20 points in a quarter one time. There is little reason to expect that to change here. Mired in a 2-8 slide they are showing the kind of offensive breakdowns that can happen when role players and rookies are in prime roles – Richard Jefferson is the only current starter that has been an NBA full-timer before, and while his legs are still there, the others are misfiring badly. They have played five games in March against teams that currently sport winning records and averaged an anemic 81.8 per outing, and tired only gets more tired at this time of the season for this class of roster.
Malinsky 3-27-09
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