Matt Fargo's
10** NCAA TOURNAMENT
*GAME OF THE YEAR* - Friday
**10** NCAA TOURNAMENT
*GAME OF THE YEAR*
Gonzaga has been an underdog of more than five points
only twice over the last three years
and that includes none this season.
10* Gonzaga Bulldogs + 8.5
**10** NCAA TOURNAMENT *GAME OF THE YEAR* Gonzaga has been an underdog of more than five points only twice over the last three years and that includes none this season. Do the Bulldogs deserve to be huge underdogs in this spot? Absolutely not. This is the second biggest line of the Regional Semis with Louisville over Arizona surpassing this number by just a half-point. These types of games come down to value when the matchups are not heavily skewed to one side and the value is definitely on the side of Gonzaga here. I do consider North Carolina to be one of the top teams in the country so this is taking nothing away from what it has accomplished or what it may accomplish in the next two weeks. I will say that the Bulldogs are not underdogs very often due to playing in a very weak conference overall but they do play some very solid out of conference games and that includes a game against North Carolina in MSG two years ago that resulted in a Gonzaga win as 7.5-point underdogs. Once again this season, the Tar Heels have been overvalued. Despite a 30-4 record, they are just 13-19 ATS and it is pretty obvious why that percentage against the number is so low. As a single-digit favorite, North Carolina is only 1-5 ATS this season and that lone victory came against Duke as a two-point chalk. I take a long look at efficiency numbers and of the eight games Thursday and Friday, Gonzaga has the second biggest advantage of all of those with an overall rating edge of +20.3. The fact that is has the edge is one thing but to have the edge and be backed with such a high point spread is another. As far as raw shooting numbers, the Bulldogs have the edge in offensive and defensive shooting, both regular and from long range. Those variances are even more pronounced over the last five games where Gonzaga also has the advantage in free throw shooting and assist/turnover ratio margin. The argument will be made that this is all due to strength of schedules and the opposition each team has played but the schedules are not off by that much to make such a major difference. We have seen it numerous times in the past that the Bulldogs are in fact capable of not only playing with, but beating the so called elite teams outside their conference. Gonzaga is one of a select few teams that comes close to North Carolina in experience, height and skill. And the Bulldogs may gain confidence from knowing that North Carolina was ranked second in the country when Gonzaga beat the Tar Heels in the 2006 Preseason NIT in the only previous meeting between the schools. North Carolinas Ty Lawson was the ACC player of the year, , is in almost the same situation that he was in March 9, a day after he played 36 minutes in a 79-71 win over Duke to close the regular season. The toe swelled then and pain increased, and Lawson missed three consecutive games. The LSU game was his first game since playing against Duke and Lawson said that his toe was swelling and hurting after the LSU game. I can almost guarantee that he will be playing but it is very possible that he will be less effective this time around because of the much shorter turnaround. He will square off against Jeremy Pargo, who is a slasher and he will give Lawson all he can handle. North Carolina is 8-19 ATS in its last 27 road games in the second half of the season against teams that are allowing 39 percent shooting or less Gonzaga has used playing the high scoring teams to its advantage with a solid defense as it is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games against teams that like to push it and are averaging 62 or more shots per game over the second half of the season. The Bulldogs have an excellent chance of winning this game outright if they are able to slow North Carolina down just enough. Even still, the generosity in this line makes any type of a close game either way an easy winner. 10* Gonzaga Bulldogs
Matt Fargo NBA Pick 03/27/09
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