We come through once again as Notre Dame makes easy work of Kentucky to give us yet another Comp Play winner. That puts us at 10-4 with our last 14 Freebies and we’re adding to those winning totals tonight.
We’re sticking with some college hoops action as we’re taking Villanova over Duke in Tournament action.
Many people have been riding the coattails of Duke lately because the Blue Devils coasted through the ACC tournament and have looked decent through the first two rounds of The Tournament.
But the Blue Devils are beatable and susceptible for a let down.
Consider that while Duke has gone 6-1 SU its last 7 games, it has only gone 3-4 ATS in that stretch and failed to cover in its last tournament game, beating Texas 74-69 as a 7 1/2 point favorite.
But when it comes to The Tournament, covering has not been the Blue Devils’ strong point. Over their last 12 games in The Tournament as a favorite, the Blue Devils have covered only twice and have covered only one time in their last 6 games in The Tournament.
Also, Duke has not covered in any of its last five Tournament games when installed as a favorite of between 1/2 and 6 1/2 points. Going a step further, the Blue Devils have covered only twice in their last 11 games against the dominant Big East.
Now Duke has to deal with a Villanova team that has covered in 5 of its last 7 games against the ACC and has covered in 11 of its last 16 games against teams with a SU winning record.
Consider, too, that the Wildcats have been strong against their own conference, the best in the country, as they have beaten Pittsburgh, Syracuse, twice, and just lost to No. 1 overall seed Louisville by a point.
Villanova is one of those under-the-radar teams and will flirt with an outright win tonight. I’m not going to suggest taking the Money Line on the Wildcats, but do take the points and take Villanova on the side.
Tony Weston 3-26-09
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