7-Unit Play. Take #807 Villanova (+2.5) over Duke (10 p.m., Thursday, March 26)
Note: This is our NCAA Tournament Game of the Year.
This is the matchup that I was hoping for when I saw the brackets released on Selection Sunday. I can’t fully explain why, but I simply feel like Villanova matches up particularly well with this Duke team and that the Wildcats have the athleticism and the guard play to win this game outright. Throw in the fact that Villanova should have strong support from a pro-Big East crowd in Boston and I think that the underdog will get it done here.
In several ways this ‘Nova team reminds me a bit of the West Virginia squad that knocked off Duke last year and their guards are better than the VCU team that tore up Duke in the first round of 2007. Villanova has four talented, fearless, get-to-the-basket guards that will not be intimidated by going up against the Dukies. Villanova also has four athletic frontcourt players that should be able to at least hold their own on the glass if not hold a sizeable advantage there. Dante Cunningham is no Joe Alexander, but he is a talented post player that can step away from the basket and make shots. He is the Wildcats leading scorer and was an All-Big East performer. But Cunningham isn’t even the Money Man for this Wildcats team. That would be Scottie Reynolds, the best guard in the tournament that no one is talking about. Two years ago, as a freshman, Reynolds went bonkers at the end of the year, topping 20 points in six of his last seven games, including a 40-point outburst in a win at Connecticut. Last year he closed the season with three of five at 20+, including 21 and 25 in the opening two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. The kid is fearless and skilled and I don’t think that the Blue Devils have anyone to guard him. Now, Reynolds had been banged up over the last week or so and he’s only managed 21 points in his last three games. I’ll be stunned if he doesn’t have at least that many points in this game tonight.
Duke is Duke. You can’t really knock them. They are a damn fine team and they deserve to be where they are. They also have some big wins in the nonconference this year. But if you look at the teams that beat them this year – Michigan, Wake, North Carolina, B.C. and Clemson – they all have things in common. All five of them have at least one exceptional scoring guard, a la Reynolds. Also, four of the five (Michigan is the exception) was bigger and stronger than Duke on the interior. And finally, all five teams beat Duke on the road, outside the coziness of Cameron Indoor. Villanova is at least as good as Michigan, Clemson or Boston College, so I think that they can win this game.
I brought up the fact that they are playing in Boston. To me that makes a significant difference. One of the things that makes Duke so tough to beat is the fact that the officials are so disgustingly pro-Duke it’s playing against a sixth player. And that’s not Duke-bashing. That’s me having watched about 45-50 Duke games just in the last two years and seeing it with my own eyes. But there won’t be ACC or Big East officials working tonight’s game (and if we end up with Ed Hightower I’m going to kill someone) so they will be less inclined to give Duke those “questionable” calls that they rely on. And if things do start to look fishy, don’t think for one second that the Boston crowd, with plenty of Philly fans making the trip, won’t let them hear about it. Villanova will have the crowd behind them, and for an underdog that’s a huge plus. Duke has not played well against the Big East – going just 2-8-1 ATS against them – and Duke has not been a good bet in the NCAA Tournament – 1-5 ATS overall and 2-10 ATS as a favorite.
Finally, does anything strike you as odd about this line? This is Duke, so the oddsmakers don’t have to do anything to entice the betting public to get behind the Blue Devils. But isn’t this line strangely low? Well, I went back over the last 12 years and analyzed how Duke performs in the line range of Duke +2 to Duke -5 and the results were about what I expected. This current group of Dukies is just 5-10 ATS in this line range. Over the last five years the program is just 10-17 ATS in this range and if you go all the way back to 1997-98 the Duke Blue Devils are just 18-28 (39.1 percent) against the spread between +2 and -5. Also, they are just 6-14 ATS in this line range, since 1997, in games played after Feb. 11. And if you look back over the last four years here were the spreads for their last games of the year: -4 (WVU), -6 (VCU), -5 (LSU), -4 (Mich. St.), +2 (UConn)*, +3.5 (Kansas), -13.5 (Indiana), -4 (Arizona)*, -4.5 (Florida), +9.5 (UConn)*, -1 (Kentucky). That’s 11 games and Duke was 1-10 SU, 3-8 ATS. If you throw out the Indiana and +9.5 Connecticut spreads you can see that in games with “tight” lines the Blue Devils are just 2-7 ATS and they lost outright in eight of the nine games. That, to me, is an indicator.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #811 Missouri (+4.5) over Memphis (9:30 p.m., Thursday, March 26)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 141.5 Missouri vs. Memphis (9:30 p.m., Thursday, March 26)
I think I’ve made my case pretty clear against the Memphis Tigers over the last few weeks. They are the most overrated team left in the field by virtue of the fact that they haven’t played anyone and they haven’t beaten anyone all season long. Their best win was over a soft Gonzaga team – and that’s it. Well, Utah beat Gonzaga this year and so did Portland State, but that doesn’t mean that they’re Final Four contenders now does it? In fact, Memphis’ win over No. 55-rated Maryland – the team that finished EIGHTH in the ACC – is the third-best win that Memphis has this year. I understand that they dominated that pathetic excuse for a conference that CUSA is this season, and that they made a mind at the window doing it. But Missouri has faced off against twice as many Top 50 opponents this year (16) than Memphis (7) and has an edge in Top 50 wins by a WIDE margin (11 to 4). Frankly, Missouri has played better against better competition this year. Further, Missouri has wins over Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, USC and Cal. I would take just about any one of those wins over a victory against Gonzaga.
The teams that beat Memphis this year – Syracuse, Georgetown, Xavier – all had one thing in common: strength on the interior. All three of those teams had big forwards that could bang on the glass with Memphis. Memphis is one of the worst shooting teams in the country, so most of their offense is simply throw it up on the glass and go get it. Well, I believe that Missouri is big enough and strong enough to hold its own on the interior. If they do that they will force Memphis’ guards to make plays and hit shots. They won’t do it. Memphis’ guards played out of their heads last weekend. And while you might look at that and say, “See, they are capable of playing that well.” I look at it and say, “They’ve never played that well in their lives and they aren’t going to do it again.” Case in point: Memphis shot 58.5 percent against Maryland! They shot 52.6 percent from 3-point land (10-for-19)! So what do you think the odds are that a team that shoots 32.9 percent from 3-point territory (No. 230 in the country) comes even close to hitting 50 percent from deep again? I think the odds are pretty slim.
Memphis isn’t playing Tulane. The’re not playing Tulsa. They’re not playing Southern Miss. In the Sweet 16 Memphis will be playing big boy teams from big boy conferences. I think that this Tigers team is garbage, and even if they win I’ll be right back betting against them to get smoked by Connecticut. I think we have an outright winner here, but regardless I’d like to think that the points are good.
1.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take Villanova (+7.5) over Duke (10 p.m.) AND Take Missouri (+9.5) over Memphis (9:30 p.m.)
* Ferringo 3-26-09
Reply With Quote