Although our last two forays with this concept have not worked, with
one of them that bitter (for us) Portland/Cleveland overtime affair
last Thursday, we will not back off of one of the strongest
late-season concepts out there ? the way that Mike Brown gears his
Cavaliers up for the playoffs by slowing the pace, and cranking up
the defensive intensity. To recap, Brown went 14-3 to the Under as a
home favorite after the All Star break LY, an indication of how he
would manage games when his team had the ability to control the flow,
and the run is 7-1 in the same category this season (remember that we
only chart regulation scores), making for a lights-out 21-4 in
tonight?s role the past two campaigns. And note that the more control
he has the more he shuts things down ? when favored by -9 or more in
that span it has been an 8-1 push to the Under in which the nine
games finished a collective 125 points below the oddsmakers
projections, or a substantial 13.9 per game. New Jersey can not do anything to change that flow without Devin Harris in the lineup. These two just played to a 184 on the Nets home floor on Sunday, but note how misleading that count was ? the game was only sitting on 126 after three quarters, before Brown eased off
on the throttle and New Jersey scored 33 in the final period. Backing
off then actually made a little bit of sense, with no particular
reason to crush a team on the road with a rematch ahead. But tonight
that intensity can be there for the full 48 minutes, as a special
atmosphere is created for a Cleveland team out to set the franchise
record for wins, and with only a Friday home game vs. Minnesota on
deck the full focus can be unleashed.
4* #678 ORLANDO/BOSTON Under 191
This is playoff basketball. There is only one game separating these
teams in the battle for the #2 seed in the Eastern Conference, and
the crucial home court advantage in their almost inevitable
second-round hookup, and that means that in reality the playoffs
start right now. It also means that we should not be seeing a Total
in the low 90?s for the teams that are currently #1 (Celtics) and #2
(Magic) in the NBA on our best set of defensive ratings. With these
teams having played to a 165 and a 170 in their head-to-head
encounters over the past two months, we have excellent value for an
Under here. Although Kevin Garnett has only played 14:39, 17:07 and 17:51 in this first three games back, his return has brought Boston back to what we
are accustomed to seeing in terms of pace and defense ? the Celtics
held the Spurs to 77 points, the Grizzlies to 87 and the Clippers to
77 in that span. Now with Tuesday off to prepare for this one, and
tomorrow off as well, Garnett?s minutes can become an even bigger
part of the equation, creating more of a wall around the basket for
Dwight Howard to deal with. Orlando is starting to bring the kind of late-season focus that we like to see from a team that believes that a strong playoff run can
be made ? there have only been three home games in the last two
weeks, and they played 3-0 to the Under, by a collective 30.5 points.
The Magic absolutely understand the pace they are going to have to
play at in the ?second season?, with a 10-4 run to the Under in their
last 14 games against teams that would currently qualify for the
playoffs, and this becomes an intense defensive battle from the
start, with fast break opportunities few and far between.
4* #686 SAN DIEGO STATE/SAINT MARY?S Over 128
When Madison Square Garden and a trip to New York are firmly within view, the intensity in the NIT picks up. And we know what intensity means at this time of year in a close game ? a lot of scrambling down the stretch, with neither side going down without a fight, since there literally is no tomorrow for the loser. And that helps to set up an easy Over in this short price range. The oddsmakers have trouble with teams like Saint Mary?s, because of the long absence of catalyst Patty Mills. Both the pace and the offensive efficiency numbers slowed without him, and those statistics clog up data bases. But it has been a 3-0 run to the Over with Mills in the lineup since the West Coast tourney, and in two NIT games he has exploded for 50 points. On Monday he only knocked down 1-10
triples in that win over Davidson, but still scored 23 points and dished out 10 assists, a sign that his energy is where it needs to be. Now we can also look for a few of those triples to fall, and there are a pair of pendulums at hand ? not only the bounce-back from Monday?s poor shooting, but also a reversal from his 6-19 from the field, including 1-8 from 3-point range, in the earlier 67-64 win over these Aztecs in Anaheim back in December.Note that the first meeting got to 131 with more than an off-day from Mills as a factor ? leading San Diego State scorer Lorenzo Wade only had eight points in 19 minutes coming off of a seven-game suspension, and the two teams only made 11-34 3-point attempts and 12-23 at the free throw line. And it was in an antiseptic afternoon environment at a neutral site that also created little added spark on the court. That all changes tonight, and it brings us not only a high energy game early, but one in which the energy never does subside, as perhaps the two teams with the best cases for having been snubbed by the Big Dance go all out to prove their point.
Malinsky 3-25-09
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