Jeff Scott
5 UNIT PLAY
(CBI GAME OF THE YEAR )
Stanford -3 over OREGON STATE
The Cardinal are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games as a favorite, while the Beavers are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 home games and 2-12 ATS in their last 14 Wednesday games. Oregon State took both meetings in the regular season, but the Cardinal got a measure of revenge in the PAC-10 Tourney. Stanford has gone 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 trips to Corvallis. Stanford has taken their 1st 2 gamnes of the CBI tourney rather easily, as they crushed Boise State by 20 points and then they won at Wichita State by 14. Oregon State has had the easier schedule in the CBI Tourney, yet they could only beat Houston by 4 (at home) and then they won in OT vs a Vermont team that had to fly all the way cross-country to play the game. OSU has had a hard time at the offensive end of the court this year, as they have averaged just 59.5 ppg (320th) and they have averaged 56.7 ppg vs the Pac-10 this year. Stanford has had no such problems at that end of the floor. The Cardinal comes in averaging 72.9 ppg (84th) on 45.6% shooting (79th) and they also shoot 38.1% (30th) from beyond the Arc. The Beavers do have the advantage at the defensive end as they allow just 63 ppg compared to the Cardinal that allows 68.9 ppg. The Cardinal does have a slight edge on the boards (288th to 338th), plus they have a big edge at the FT line as they are 101st (72.9%) at the charity stripe, while the Beaver as are 293rd (64.6%). The Cardinal comes in averaging 77.6 pg in their last 5 games, while the Beavers have averaged just 56 ppg in their last 5. Despite the defensive edge the Beavers own and the fact they they are playing at home, I just don't see OSU being able to score enough to stay with the hot Cardinal in this one. Stanford big in this one
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4 UNIT PLAY (CIT GOY)
Bradley/ Pacific Over 129
I know this is a Totals play, but we'll still use it as a GOY). The Over is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 non-conference games, while the Over is 5-1 in Braves last 6 home games and 4-1 in their last 5 non-conference games. Pacific games have averaged 129.4 ppg on the year, while their road games have put up 131.1 ppg, plus their last 5 overall have averaged 135 ppg. The Tigers aren't an offensive machine at 66.8 ppg (202nd), but they do shoot well as they have hit 46.2% of their shots (57th), including hitting 39.7% fro beyond the arc, which is 14th in the nation. The Braves come in 134th in scoring defense (66.3 ppg), 158th in FG% (43.9%) and they don't defense the arc all that well as they are 241st in 3pt defense (35.5%). The Braves have also allowed 75 ppg in their last 3 games on 46.3% shooting. Bradley hasn't been that great on offense overall this year (67.5 ppg on 43.7% shooting), but it has picked up in heir last 9 games, as they have averaged 72.8 ppg on a solid 46.3% shooting. The Braves have averaged 72 ppg on a healthy 47% shooting at home this year, including averaging 76.3 ppg on 49.7% shooting in their last 6 at home. Bradley's games have averaged 134.5 ppg overall, while their home games have averaged 138.5 ppg. We also note that 8 of their last 10 overall have gone Over the total, with an average of 142.8 ppg being scored,. while their last 6 at home have averaged 146 ppg. Pacific does play defense well, but I do see Bradley being able to crack it, while the solid shooting Tigers should be able to get their points vs a Bradley team that iis struggling to stop thier opponents of late. 130+ is more than in reach in this one and I will call for a game in the 140's.
2 UNIT PLAYS
San Diego State/ St Mary's Over 128.5:
The Over is 6-0 in Gaels last 6 non-conference games. Ok let's get the nervous part of this play out the way early and that would be the way the Aztecs can "D" it up. SDSU has allowed just 59.7 ppg on the year and 56.1 ppg at home, but despite those numbers I still feel the Gaels can hit 63 points in this one and that's all I'm looking for out of them. St Mary's comes in averageing 72.8 ppg overall and 68.1 ppg on the road, plus theyr have averaged 77.8 ppg in their last 3 games and that includude them putting up 68 points on the #1 scoring dense in the Nation (Washington St) in the first round of this tourney. So as you can see, 63 points is very attainable by the Gaels here. That just leaves SD State needing 66 points to get the over here. The Aztecs are not an offensive force, but they still have scored 67.2 ppg on the year, including 68.3 ppg at home. The Gaels haven't given up much this year, but they have allowed 68.5 ppg in their last 4 games. Also note that below I have the Aztecs coverng the 3.5, so I'm looking for no less than 67 from them in this one. These teams have met 5 times since '04 and all 5 have put up at least 131 points, with an average of 138.8 ppg being scored in the 5 games. Despite having a couple of teams that play good defense, I still see this one on the mid 130's.
SAN DIEGO STATE -3.5 over St Mary's:
The Gaels are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games following three or more consecutive home games and 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog, while the Aztecs are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. West Coast and -1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. As you can see from the trend above, the Gaels are not a great road dog team. To make matters worse they are playing a game less than 48 hours since their game with Davidson, plus they will be playing on the Atztec's home floor, where SDSU is 15-3 on the year and have outscored their opponents by 12.1 ppg. Just don't see the Gaels staying with the Aztecs for more than a half in this one.
Jeff Scott 3-25-09
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