At 2:50 pm, our selection is on the Pitt Panthers
minus the points over Oklahoma State,
Pittsburgh falls into a 2nd and 3rd Round system of mine that's a perfect 16-0, 100% ATS since 1991. What we want to do is play on any Top-3-seeded team off a pointspread loss, if it's priced from -7 to -15 points vs. its foe, who pulled an upset in its previous game. On Friday, Oklahoma State upset Tennessee, while Pittsburgh struggled to get by East Tennessee State. That was the 2nd consecutive poor game by the Panthers (they lost to WVU in the Big East Tourney), but I fully expect Jamie Dixon's men to easily handle Okie State today. The Cowboys don't have anyone inside to match up with Pitt's DeJuan Blair, and if Blair doesn't get in foul trouble, the Panthers are virtually unbeatable. Oklahoma State found out just how tough the Panthers can be when the two teams met in Pittsburgh last season (Pitt won by 17 points as a 13.5-point fave). The Cowboys have covered just six of 26 games played away from home, if Okie State is an underdog of less than nine points. And revenging underdogs priced from +7 to +20 points have covered just 18 of 51 (and 1 of their last 13) vs. Pitt. Lay the points.
At 2:40 pm, our
2nd Round Game of the Year
is on the Arizona Wildcats minus the points
over Cleveland State.
Much like our Opening Round Game of the Year on Washington over Mississippi State, we're going to fade a team off an upset win in its last game. And what a stunning result that was, as Cleveland State dispatched Wake Forest rather easily as an 8-point underdog. However, in the NCAA Tournament, teams rarely win as an underdog off an upset win in their previous game. Indeed, since 1998, teams off an upset win as a 6-point (or greater) underdog have covered the spread just 14 of 51 games if next installed as a dog of +2.5 or more points! But that's not the best part. If our upsetter is now matched up against an opponent whose win percentage is greater than .600 and less than .750 (Arizona's win pct. is .606), then our stat moves from 14 of 51 to a WINLESS 0 of 14! Arizona also pulled a mild upset in Round 1, but favorites have a much better time of it off an upset win. And, if we look at the games when two teams, each seeded 10 or higher, played each other after pulling upsets in Round 1, the higher ranked teams have generally won (12-1 SU and 11-3 ATS). Although Cleveland State surprised me with the ease with which it won over Wake Forest, it must be noted that the Demon Deacons were a very young team, and subject to all the frailties that go with youth. In contrast, this Arizona Wildcat team is a veteran group (juniors Nic Wise, Chase Budinger and Jordan Hill combine for 51 ppg), and clearly understands what it's trying to do. Moreover, it won't take the Vikings lightly (which Wake Forest may have done). Arizona guard Nic Wise commented that, "You can't come out soft, because [Cleveland State will] come out fast and...hit you hard." So, I expect the Wildcats to not only be focused, but also hungry, as it's widely believed that Budinger and Hill will depart for the NBA after this season, so this could very well be their final college game, should Arizona not emerge victorious. I don't believe that will happen. Lay the small number.
At 4:50 pm, our College Hoops Steamroller
is on the Marquette Golden Eagles plus the points over Mizzou.
Marquette eked out a 1-point win over Utah State on Friday, but that wasn't good enough to cover the six-point spread. But what is good for Marquette is the unexpected news it received last night: guard Dominic James, who had been sidelined with a metatarsal injury, was cleared to play in this afternoon's game. Obviously, after missing the last few weeks, it remains to be determined how much time he will see on the court, and how effective he will be when he plays. But his presence will surely give his teammates a big, emotional lift. And from a technical standpoint, Marquette falls into a 71% ATS situation off its ATS loss in Game 1. If one goes back 19 seasons, one finds that underdogs off an ATS loss in Round 1 cover the spread 71% in Round 2 vs. foes off a win and cover as a favorite.
Take Marquette.
Al McMordie 3-22-09
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